How to Fix Baseball, Part IV: Expand the Playoffs

Baseball is frustrating. You watch your team for 162 nights only to see it all end with an empty feeling. Your team could even have a really good season and win 90 games, and still might miss the playoffs.

But Jeff, baseball’s playoffs are sacred! It should be a special thing to make the playoffs!

Really? What is sacred in baseball? We’ve had Interleague Play for 20 years now. The Milwaukee Brewers and Houston Astros have switched leagues in the past 15 years. The freakin’ All-Star Game determines home field advantage in the World Series, for crying out loud. What is so sacred about baseball that makes it untouchable?

Meanwhile, half of the league plays meaningless games from August through the end of the season. Attendance and TV ratings die. Save for one or two, divisions are usually wrapped up by early September, as most of the league plays out the string.

This is bad for baseball. Urgency creates interest; Without it, no one pays attention. With the beginning of the NFL season now poaching our limited attention from the end of baseball season, the pennant races are a footnote. This hampers interest in the playoffs in October, since most fans just don’t care because their team is out.

There is only one way to fix that, and that is to expand the playoffs.

More Playoffs are Better

There are multiple benefits of playoff expansion:

More teams in the hunt equals more interest over more time. By September, about 12–14 of MLB’s 32 teams are realistically in the hunt for its 10 playoff spots. Expanding the playoffs would increase late-season, and thus whole-season, interest in the pennant races to about 20 teams. More teams in the hunt means more eyeballs on TVs in August and September.

More playoff games equals more money. Playoff games are guaranteed sell-outs (unless you’re the Atlanta Braves). Why would it be a bad thing to sell out 24 or so more playoff games by adding an extra round? Add to that the increased attendance during the home stretch of the regular season, and baseball can gain a significant amount of revenue, especially for its small market franchises.

More teams have a chance to go all the way. Baseball is the most random of the four major sports. The best teams only win just a bit more than 60% of their games (100/162 = 61.7%). By comparison, the best teams in the NFL typically carry a win percentage over 85% (a 14–2 team has a win percentage of 87.5%). So it’s perfectly conceivable for an 85-win team to make the playoffs as a low seed, get hot, and go on a run to the Fall Classic. That randomness of chance is what makes the NFL so appealing to the average fan. Everyone’s team has a chance. In the NFL, it’s because of the one-game-winner-take-all format. In baseball, it’s because of the relative parity across the league. That’s a powerful draw for baseball’s waning fan base.

The New Fall

So, how would this work? Currently, baseball boasts 10 playoff teams — five in each league. But that’s misleading, because there’s a one-game playoff to determine the Wild Card for each league regardless of their records. So here’s how I would do it:

• Eight teams from each league, with no byes. Higher seeds always get home field.
• Division winners get the top three seeds, regardless of records.
• One-game playoff determines eighth and final playoff spot in the event of a tie after 162 games.

Here’s who would have gotten into the playoffs over the last five years if we expanded the playoffs:

2013:

• American League: Boston, Oakland, Detroit, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Texas, Kansas City, Baltimore*/NY Yankees*
• National League: St. Louis, Atlanta, LA Dodgers, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Washington, Arizona, San Diego*/San Francisco*

2012:

• American League: NY Yankees, Oakland, Detroit, Baltimore, Texas, Tampa Bay, LA Angels, Chicago White Sox
• National League: Washington, Cincinnati, San Francisco, Atlanta, St. Louis, LA Dodgers, Milwaukee, Philadelphia*/Arizona*

2011:

• American League: NY Yankees, Texas, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Boston, LA Angels, Toronto, Cleveland
• National League: Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Arizona, St. Louis, Atlanta, San Francisco, LA Dodgers, Washington

2010:

• American League: Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Texas, NY Yankees, Boston, Chicago White Sox, Toronto, Oakland*/Detroit*
• National League: Philadelphia, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Atlanta, San Diego, St. Louis, Colorado, Florida*/LA Dodgers*

2009:

• American League: NY Yankees, LA Angels, Minnesota, Boston, Texas, Detroit, Seattle, Tampa Bay
• National League: LA Dodgers, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Colorado, San Francisco, Florida, Atlanta, Chicago Cubs

Note:

• Bold denotes teams that made the playoffs that year.
• Italics denote teams that won their divisions.
• Asterisks (*) denote teams that would have played a one-game playoff for the 8th playoff seed.

This means that, of the 30 current teams in Major League Baseball, only two — the Houston Astros and the New York Mets — would not have had a shot at the playoffs in the last five seasons. It should also be noted that, if we extrapolate this to 2008, both the Astros and the Mets would have made it to the NL Playoffs in the new system.

Now that’s what competitive balance looks like. Everyone at least has a shot.

Now for the rounds:

First Round

• Best of three games.
• All three games are played at the home park of the higher-seeded team.
• Seeding: 1 vs. 8, 2 vs. 7, 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5.

The key here is hosting all three games at the higher seeded team’s park. The first round is quick, there’s no ridiculous travel schedule, and it provides a good extension of the regular season, since it’s just like a three-game regular season set. These series can be knocked out over a weekend. Also, the home teams have an advantage (as they should in a short series), you get one trip through your playoff rotation, and if you lose the series at home, well, you deserve it.

Most importantly, there’s great drama, because entire seasons are at stake in relatively short order when you have to win two out of three.

Divisional Round

Keep it the way it is:

• Best of five games, 2–2–1 format.
• Best regular season record gets home field, unless you’re a division winner.

For good measure, let’s re-seed after the first round to even things out a bit. But the Divisional Round as constituted is good. Don’t change a thing.

League Championships

Again, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it:

• Best of seven games, 2–3–2 format.
• Best regular season record gets home field.

World Series

Rinse and repeat:

• Best of seven games, 2–3–2 format
• Best regular season record gets home field

But here’s the scheduling wrinkle I’d like to add:

All weekend World Series games must be played in the afternoon.

We mourn the loss of day baseball in the playoffs, particularly in the later rounds. Games go way too long for East Coast audiences to stick around. So bring the game back to its roots, and start all weekend games in the World Series at a reasonable afternoon time. I recommend 4 p.m. Eastern, 1 p.m. Pacific.

The playoffs are baseball’s most important time of year. It needs to be important for more of its fans. Expanding them can only help add to that importance for the vast majority of baseball’s fan base.