Why 14 Playoff Teams is Not a Bad Idea for the NFL
At the annual owners’ meetings, the NFL tabled a proposal to add one playoff team per conference until next year. Make no mistake: this is going to happen. We will see seven teams from each conference in the NFL Playoffs in 2015, and there’s nothing you can do about it.
And you know what? It’s not a bad idea, either.
We Aren’t Diluting The Playoffs
“But Jeff, aren’t we diluting the playoffs by adding more teams? This isn’t the NBA!”
You’re right. This is not the NBA. But the NFL is not diluting the quality of the playoffs by adding a 7-seed to the mix.
Let’s look at the four major leagues and how many teams vie for how many playoff spots:
Note: MLB just expanded their playoffs by adding a guaranteed one-game Wild Card Playoff. So two MLB teams get to play one measly Wild Card play-in game and call that “making the playoffs.”
The NFL, as proposed, would not nearly have as many of its teams making the playoffs as the NBA and NHL, which are oft maligned for their playoff fields’ lack of overall quality. 44% of the league is hardly an “everyone gets a trophy” situation.
Room for One More
Also unlike the other leagues, good teams are getting left out of the NFL Playoffs with alarming frequency. Let’s take a look back at the records of the best teams left out of the playoffs and the worst teams in the playoffs in each conference since we went to four divisions and 32 teams in 2002:
Of the 24 teams that were the first left out of the NFL Playoffs since 2002:
- Six of them were 10–6 (in bold).
- The 2008 New England Patriots went 11–5 — the only 11–5 team to ever miss the playoffs.
- 14 of them had a record that was equal to or better than the last team to make the playoffs (in italics).
- 10 of those teams had better records than at least one division champion.
- 18 times, a team that went at least 9–7 did not get into the playoffs.
- Meanwhile, four 8–8 teams made the playoffs, as did one 8–7–1 team and one 7–9 team (Well played, Charlie Whitehurst).
So adding one more playoff contestant in each conference is hardly a dilution of the playoff pool.
These Teams Are Actually Good
Breaking: Wild Card teams do not stink. In fact, Wild Cards are 6–4 in the Super Bowl, and 4–0 since 2000:
Want to go by record? OK. 10–6-or-worse teams are 6–2 in the Super Bowl, including three in a row recently:
So we have had four 10–6 teams and one 9–7 team win it all, and those two 9–7 clubs both came within one quarter (and in the case of the Cardinals, one play) of winning it all.
The Regular Season Will Mean More
When we go to 14 playoff teams, the setup is obvious: The new playoff team will be the 7th seed, and play the 2-seed in the first round. So say good-bye to the second-best team in each conference getting a week off.
From a competition perspective, this makes sense, because now the only team that gets the coveted first-round bye is the one-seed — the best team in each conference.
Here’s how the playoff bracket would look:
So this is the significance of that: The teams with the best regular season record from each conference get both home field throughout the playoffs AND a first-round bye. Makes the regular season that much more important, no?
“But Jeff, we don’t need any more football!”
Liar. Yes you do. Admit it: You can’t get enough of it. The networks know it, and the ratings prove it.
The Wild Card Weekend TV schedule would mean triple-headers on the first Saturday and Sunday of the playoffs. The TV networks know you’re going to watch all day, so they want this bad. So bad, in fact, that they are falling all over themselves to score a piece of the NFL Playoff pie. And if the TV networks (read: You, the football-watching public) want more football, by God, they — and you — are going to get it.
Now if only they would eliminate the two-week break between the conference title games and the Super Bowl. That would be nice, no?
