Recently, 2019-nCoV, a serious infectious disease, has posed a threat to the whole world. However, will 2019-nCoV affect stock markets?Let’s talk about the characteristics of this disease we know so far.
1.Long incubation period
The incubation period of 2019-nCoV is up to two weeks. As a result, it is extremely hard to be screened for people affected in the early stage. In the early period, there is even no common symptom, such as cough, fever etc. Unfortunately, it is still contagious in the stage.
2.Similar to SARS
2019-nCoV is biologically similar to SARS. The outbreak of SARS happening in 2003, also originated from China, had caused the deaths of 774 people in the world. Although the fatality rate seems to be a bit lower than that of SARS, we still need to be careful.
3.Various routes of infection、Highly contagious
There are a variety of routes of infection of 2019-nCoV, including droplet spread, contact spread and even eyes could be the media to spread out. Moreover, it is highly contagious disease and there is still no effective medicine and vaccine helping people fight against this infectious disease.
Fake news
The drop of stock market is often caused by the essential factor:Uncertainty.
Fake news of 2019-nCoV spreads everywhere, so nobody knows how severe the disease is. In addition, fake news has almost spread all continents in the world.
Besides, people tend not to believe official messages from China since their government hid the truth of SARS before. Therefore, investors will not understand whether it will have a strong impact on productivity of companies in China.
Will it become a Black Swan?
Therefore, in my opinion, 2019-nCoV will definitely become a Black Swan at least in Q1 2020, especially for Chinese companies and stock market. Even though the disease is not as terrible as most people imagine, as long as fake news still spreads all over the world. Investors will not have enough confidence in putting their money in such uncertain stock markets.
Protect family and friends
I think that all of us need to be cautious. No matter where you live, wearing a mask is always the best policy, it can not only protect yourself but also your lovely family and friends.
The article is based on my perspective, so there may be some incorrectness in the paragraph. Welcome for discussing!
