AFL Finals Week 1 Preview & Power Rankings

With the pre-Finals BYE in the rearview mirror, we preview all the September action.

Photo Courtesy of Adriano Rotolo under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0

POWER RANKINGS

Teams are ranked based on several factors, nonetheless their list strength, current form, and expected future performance. For example, if the 1st placed team GWS were currently to play the 2nd placed Sydney at a neutral venue, I would expect the 1st (GWS) to win, based on the strength of their Home & Away performances, recent Finals history, and the quality of their available list.

8 — Geelong

Geelong are a ‘good’ side, but I don’t think they have the pieces to contend with the ‘great’ sides.

Finish 3rd with the all-important double chance, but the Cats remain the most impotent of all the Teams in the Premiership hunt.

Found some form in the last month of the year, but they’ve been well off their 7–0 output from the start of the year. Just don’t have the X-Factor and elite game-breaking football that can challenge the best of the best.

Can only see a world in which they exit in straight sets.

7 — Carlton

Will the selection of Blues legend Sam Docherty just 6 months into his ACL rehabilitation prove a masterstroke?

When fully fit and firing, the Blues have a list the envy of the comp. There are well and truly stars on every line of the park.

Yet injury has cruelled them, and they enter the Finals in a rough patch of form, with a lack of match fitness in their stars.

Could pull a shock and ruffle a few feathers behind inspirational skipper Patrick Cripps and the emotional return of Sam Docherty, but I can’t see them making any noise this Finals series.

6 — Hawthorn

The Hawks have been the story of the season.

0–5 to start the season, counted off by all (especially myself), yet somehow they managed to turn things around.

Have the relentless hunger, passion and drive that wins Premierships. With little to no expectation, they present a dangerous threat to their more touted opposition.

Their lack of experience will undeniably hurt. As does their tough assignment with the Bulldogs.

This is going to be a dangerous team in the future. Light years ahead of where they should be at this stage of their list build, this could be the start of a mammoth few years for the mighty, fighting Hawks.

5 — Port Adelaide

The Power are no doubt a force to be reckoned with. Yet for their incredible form in the leadup to the Finals Series, they’ve been struck down by 2 incredibly devastating injuries.

The loss of their lethal half-back weapons in Dan Houston and Kane Farrell will have huge ramifications for a team that boasts a shaky at best Forward Line. They’ll need to unearth someone who can open up the keys to the Forward Line and continue Port’s sublime Inside 50 entry that has sparked their late-season redemption.

Unfortunately for Power fans, I think they’ll fall in yet another Prelim Final.

4 — Brisbane

With 3 games to go in the Premiership Season, the Lions looked primed and ready for a Premiership assault. Yet 2 costly late-season slip-ups see them miss out on the vital Double Chance.

Have more recent Finals experience than any other list in the comp, and will no doubt be fuelled by last season’s Grand Final heartbreak, but they’ve left themselves with a lot of work to do.

Can’t see them making back-to-back appearances in the Big Dance.

3 — Western Bulldogs

Plenty of weapons in this team.

The Dogs are the absolute nightmare match-up for any team in the Finals hunt. Capable of beating absolutely anyone on their day, they have downed some giants in their finals assault.

With 2 Grand Finals in the past 9 years, a Premiership victory from 7th place, and a generational player with claims as the Greatest Player in Club history, there is simply no counting out the Dogs.

Their Finals tilt could well and truly fall in a whimper in a Week 1 exit, but should they pass their 1 test, you’d have to be a brave soldier to tip against the steaming Bulldog locomotive.

2 — Sydney

Much has been made of the Swans' destructive midfield, but their half-back weapon Nick Blakey might just hold the Premiership key.

The best team for a long stretch of the season, the Swans are deserved Minor Premiers.

A mouth, watering midfield, electrifying youthful forward mix and stingy backline pose a huge threat to any team in the comp. And they’ve got the genius, John Longmire rallying the charges.

But a Qualifying Final date with the Giants worries me. They’ve got a strong recent form line (2 from 2 against them on the season) against their cross-town rivals, but they’re winless against them from 3 attempts in the Finals.

It’s going to be a massive Saturday evening blockbuster.

1 — GWS

Come into the Finals off a big loss to the Dogs, but that’s the last loss I see them suffering on the season.

This is a team purpose-built for the Finals, with a slingshot brand of footy that stacks up against the very best of them.

Have a devastating midfield with elite ballwinners and devastating ball use (Josh Kelly and Tom Green), some incredibly potent halfback runners (Lachie Whitfield & Connor Idun) and an elite forward mix, fuelled by the 1, 2 small to tall-forward mix of Jesse Hogan, Toby Greene and Brent Daniels.

Adam Kingsley shocked the footy world with his remarkable turnaround of a team almost destined for mediocrity in last year's Finals series, I expect him to do the same as he leads his team to Premiership glory.

PREDICTIONS

Port Adelaide v Geelong

Can Geelong’s midfield hold their own and prevent a Qualifying Final shellacking.

The 1st Finals matchup looms as an absolute bloodbath.

With the Power absolutely humming, and eager to put their Finals pretender tag to bed, I expect an absolute shellacking in a dull Thursday night affair. The Cats' midfield simply won’t be able to stop Port’s electric youthful brigade.

Port by 6+ goals to seal a spot in the Prelim.

Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn

Friday night’s blockbuster might just be the game of the season.

A Friday night thriller sees the Dogs face the Hawks in a danger-team showdown.

Whilst both teams have the attacking flair and confidence to take down the very best and equally pose a genuine threat to their Top 4 counterparts in the Premiership race, I expect the Dogs to topple the electrifying Hawks in an instant classic.

Their maturity and finals experience, and the absence of Will Day will aid the Dogs as they get the job done.

Sydney v GWS

The winner of this game could very well lock down their Grand Final spot with a home Preliminary Final as the reward.

The 1st of a Saturday evening spectacle sees the 2 Sydney rivals go head-to-head.

With their home fans behind them, the Swans will be eager to ride that way of enthusiasm and lock down a Prelim spot, but the Giants’ slingshot, tsunami footy will be too good.

Giants to burst out of the blocks and hold off a late Swans surge to assert themselves as the best team in Sydney.

Brisbane v Carlton

Carlton will need more than a big selection shock to topple Brisbane for a 2nd successive occasion at the Gabba.

In a rematch of last season's Preliminary Final, and this season’s Opening Round match-up, the Lions face the Blues in a Saturday night spectacle.

The Blues will take confidence from their opening-round upset, and the return of some big names (including Sam Docherty), but the Lions will simply be too fit and strong in front of their home fans.

A comfortable win for the Lions as they prolong their Finals series and prepare to face the real September Titans.

That’s all she wrote for my Week 1 Finals Footy Preview. Enjoy all this week's action!