Hot or Not?

Winners and Losers through Gameweek 1 of the FIFA World Cup

With all 32 countries having played their first match of the 2022 FIFA World Cup Finals, and on the eve of Matchweek 2, I analyze which nations have done no harm to their chances of progressing, and which nations have it all to play for.

LOSERS

We start with the teams who were humbled, failed to live up to expectations, or were disadvantaged by other results.

BIGGEST LOSER — Argentina

It’s not often a team featuring Lionel Messi is on the verge of early elimination. But that is the predicament the legendary Argentinian and his nation find themselves in. Whilst ‘La Albiceleste’ will give themselves every chance to rectify their shock loss with a win against Mexico, the team can afford no slip-ups from here. With a star-studded squad and the sun setting on Messi’s illustrious career, it will still be a surprise if they don’t finish on top of Group C. That can only come through victory in their 2 remaining Group matches.

EQUALLY BIG LOSER — Germany

When Argentina fell to Saudi Arabia on the 3rd day of the tournament, many thought it would put fellow footballing giants on notice. But just over 24 hours later, European heavyweights Germany suffered a similar fate. Dominating play and possession in the 1st half, Germany was cruising to victory before an inspired 2nd half performance and substitutes powered Japan to victory. Whilst Germany’s loss is less surprising — given the growth of Japanese football over the past 10 years, they are arguably in a more dire position than Argentina, given they must win in their blockbuster match against Spain, fresh off a dazzling 1st performance.

LOSING IN EVERY WAY POSSIBLE — Qatar

When Qatar came into their 1st round match-up with Ecuador, they had history on their side. No host nation in the competition's history had ever lost their opening fixture. But all good things must come to an end. Sadly for Qatar, their loss in a lifeless performance did little to alleviate the controversy surrounding not only their football team, but their nation as a whole, and with a match-up against African Cup of Nation Champions, Senegal, eager to bounce back from their loss to the Netherlands, more pain is on the way.

LOST CAUSE — Costa Rica

It’s not often a team gets annihilated 7–0 in a FIFA World Cup Finals. But that’s the situation Costa Rica found itself in. On the receiving end of a Spanish masterclass, and an equally horrific defensive performance, the small Central American nation can pretty much kiss their Round of 16 dreams goodbye.

SO CLOSE YET SO FAR — African Nations

With the emergence of African superstars in major leagues around the world, there was a high level of optimism that many African nations would progress from the Group Stage. But despite numerous promising performances from all African nations, only 2 of 15 points were grasped. Full 90-minute performances and greater attacking quality remain the major concerns. Senegal and Morocco remain the best placed for Round of 16 progressions but don’t count out Ghana, who fell agonizingly short of an opening round draw against European heavyweights Portugal.

ON NOTICE — Belgium

Despite claiming a 1–0 victory over Canada in their first-up matchup, the World Number #2 footballing nation was a shadow of their blistering best. Dominated by Canada for much of the 1st half and beyond, and with questions hovering over the age of their squad, they’ll need a strong 2nd showing to give themselves confidence that they can make another deep run at this year's finals. Cannot afford to produce another subpar performance against more quality opponents.

WINNERS

On the other side of the equation, we have the nations who defied all expectations or did little wrong in their opening stanzas.

AS EASY AS YOU LIKE — Spain

It’s not very often you get the chance to put 5 goals past your opposition in a FIFA World Cup Finals. But Spain did that, and some. With a steady level of optimism coming into the tournament, fuelled by the emergence of young stars like, Gavi, Spain are pretty much home in their group. The next 2 match-ups against Germany and Japan will be a good indicator of whether they were unbelievable in their opening showing, or whether Costa Rica was just abysmal.

GROWING BEFORE OUR EYES — Japan

Asian football has long called for a consistent super nation to dethrone the European and South American heavyweights. And Japan is doing just that. Proving that their 2018 Round of 16 progression was no fluke, Japan is beginning to capture the hearts and minds of the wider footballing public. Skittled between 2 European heavyweights, and following a first-up win against Germany, a win against Costa Rica will almost certainly assure them another Round of 16 birth. And whilst it’s unlikely, don’t count them out on topping the Group too!

BUSINESS AS USUAL — Brazil

Although scores were level through half-time of their opening match-up with Serbia, you wouldn’t have known it. With that usual calmness about them, the most successful footballing nation in the world ticked off an important win, in a dominant 2nd half-performance despite many of their stars not firing. With a fresh crop of youth, fuelled by Real Madrid’s Vini Jr and Tottenham Hotspur’s Richarlison, the pre-tournament favourites look like the real deal here in Qatar 2022. Will be an intriguing 2nd match-up against the defensively disciplined Switzerland.

QUIET ACHIEVERS — Netherlands

Although the Netherlands got off to a more than shaky start to their FIFA World Cup campaign, they still came away with a 2–0 victory over Senegal. Despite not being talked about in the conversation for pre-tournament contenders, the Netherlands have shown good form across the past year. Have not lost since their 2–0 defeat at the hands of the Czech Republic in the Euro’s in June last year. Have the talent and game style to make another deep run in the tournament. Will be interesting to see how they fare against Ecuador.

GOOD PLATFORM TO BUILD FROM — Wales

Making their first World Cup appearance in 64 years, the Welsh were slow off the blocks in their opening-round match against the USA. But following a 2nd half-penalty from Gareth Bale and a strong finish, there is a quiet confidence amongst the Welsh that with a win against Iran (currently in action), and a final-round match-up against neighbours England, anything is possible. Will likely rely on goal difference to qualify over the USA but with a more experienced line-up than the Americans, you get the sense that a Round of 16 birth is possible.

I SEE IT, BUT I DON’T BELIEVE IT — Saudi Arabia

Wow. Life is far from predictable, and football is no different, but nobody could’ve expected Saudi Arabia’s opening match victory. Staring down the barrel of an expected defeat, the ‘Green Falcons’ pulled off one of the most stunning upsets of all time. With high expectations following that victory, it will be interesting to see how they fare throughout the rest of the tournament. Still think they’re up against it.

POWER RANKINGS

If a higher-ranked team played a lower-ranked team now, I would have the higher-ranked team winning. For example, the 5th-ranked Netherlands on the basis of its current form would beat the 6th-ranked Argentina.

1. Brazil
2. Spain
3. England
4. France
5. Netherlands
6. Argentina
7. Portugal
8. Belgium
9. Croatia
10. Germany
11. Denmark
12. Japan
13. Switzerland
14. Mexico
15. Uruguay
16. USA
17. Korea Republic
18. Poland
19. Ghana
20. Ecuador
21. Serbia
22. Senegal
23. Morocco
24. Wales
25. Canada
26. Tunisia
27. Cameroon
28. Saudi Arabia
29. Iran
30. Australia
31. Costa Rica
32. Qatar

Virgil van Dijk, captain of the Netherlands. The Netherlands, though initially shaky, showed class in their first-up win over Senegal. Photo by Ailura, CC BY-SA 3.0 AT, CC BY-SA 3.0 AT <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/at/deed.en>, via Wikimedia Commons