Round 11 AFL Power Rankings & Predictions
Part 2 of the Sir Doug Nicholls Round showcase is fast approaching. We review all 18 teams after a mystifying Round 10.
POWER RANKINGS
Teams are ranked based on a variety of factors, nonetheless their list strength, current form, and expected future performance. For example, if the 1st placed team Sydney were currently to play the 2nd placed Collingwood at a neutral venue, I would expect the 1st (Sydney) to win, based on the strength of their first 10 performances, recent Finals history and the quality of their available list.
LAUGHING STOCKS
18 — North Melbourne
Put in one of their more impressive performances of the season in Round 10, but are still drastically off the pace. Will be counting down the days and hours before their BYE.
17 — Richmond
If any team needs the BYE, it’s the Tigers. Have been absolutely hopeless in the past 5 weeks, hopefully, they can show more heart at home against the Dons. It’s a reach, but eager to put the misery of last week behind them, there could be a potential boilover on the cards.
EUROPE IN SEPTEMBER
16 — St Kilda/Euro-Yroke
St Kilda are shit, and there’s no way of fluffing it. Absolutely dreadful post-half-time against the Dockers, they’ll suffer more misery against a furious Dees squad. Condolences Saints fans.
15 — West Coast/Waalitj Marawar
The meteoric rise continues…Have pulled off 2 of the biggest boilovers of the season, and they present an outside chance to pull off another. At a famously happy hunting ground, expect the Eagles to give the Crows a red-hot crack.
14 — Hawthorn
Have beaten less fancied opponents than the Eagles, but have shown recent quality both away and at home. Robbed off a massive upset against the Port following a disastrous shutdown approach, the Hawks will bounce back strongly to complete the upset of the Round.
ON THE ROPES
13 — Gold Coast
Could beat Sydney at home and still not have me convinced. The Suns were mighty impressive against the Cats in Darwin, but it does nothing to address their real concern (lack of form away from home). That form will be tested against a battered and bruised Carlton outfit. Can they finally show some life away from home?
12 — Adelaide/Kuwarna
After their shocking start to the season, Adelaide has no room for error. That makes close losses like last week even more damaging. Face a confident West Coast side in a huge Round 11 match-up. Need to bounce back onto the winners list to stay in touch with the Top 8.
11 — Western Bulldogs
Tearing the Giants a new one, the Dogs were mighty impressive in Round 10. They’ve continually shown they’ve got the talent to match the best of them, it’s just how often they bring their best to the party. No better chance to show their finals legitimacy than with a huge win against the Swans.
10 — Brisbane
The Lions have bounced back to form in recent weeks, including a damaging performance against the Tigers on their home patch. Yet the ease of their recent match concerns me. Facing a more challenging, revitalised Hawks side, I reckon they’ll struggle.
GENUINE CHALLENGERS
9 — Fremantle/Walyalup
Need to see wins against Top 8 opposition to prove their Finals capabilities. That starts this week against a red-hot Collingwood side. They’ve struggled against the Craig McRae outfit in recent seasons, and with rain on the horizon, expect their Top 8 woes to continue. Not quite good enough.
8 — Essendon
Have been sensational in the past month and a half. After a devastating loss to the Power in the opening rounds of the season, they’ve done nothing to harm their Finals credentials. Need to keep chalking up the wins against the lesser outfits before their horror season-concluding fixture.
FINALS LOCKS
7 — Geelong
Geelong, Geelong, Geelong. It almost seems that whatever I write about the Cats, the opposite happens. Were sensational through 7 rounds of the season, but have been hugely disappointing in the past 3. Should still make the 8, but their glaring midfield weakness is beginning to be exposed. How will Chris Scott and the perennial challengers respond?
6 — Port Adelaide/Yartapuulti
May lay claim as the luckiest club of 2024, Port Adelaide has now pulled 2 rabbits out of a hat. Following a miraculous come-from-behind victory against the Hawks, almost a month after an equally miraculous Fremantle victory, they’re just finding a way to get things done. Haven’t yet hit their straps, and that presents danger signs for the competition. When will they turn their A-game on?
5 — Melbourne/Narrm
Forgive me, Melbourne isn’t always consistent. After a devastating loss to the Eagles, they’ll fall back in the pack. It almost seems as if the top clubs are allergic to claiming a spot in the Top 4. At least the Dees will bounce back onto the winners' list in Round 11.
4 — Carlton
Have endured a nightmare month on the injury front after an extraordinary start to the season. Currently see themselves outside the Top 8, I expect them to bounce back to form with a monster victory against flat-track bullies Gold Coast. Anything less than a win, and there’ll be real cause for concern.
3 — GWS
How the mighty have fallen. Absolutely atrocious last week, they find themselves lucky to be 3rd. All clubs (bar Sydney) around them have faltered, and their best is devastatingly good (which they showcased not so long ago) so expect them to rediscover their mojo in the coming weeks. That means a monster victory against the Cats at the Cattery in a mid-season redemption game.
2 — Collingwood
I honestly have no clue how the Pies are 2nd. With the turnaround of the season, they remain the form team of the competition. Down several of their brightest stars, expect them to reap more misery on the Freo faithful as they continue on their merry way against the Dockers.
MILES CLEAR
1 — Sydney
Sydney is miles clear as #1. In true COVID lockdown fashion, the rest of the comp can’t get near them. Face a confident Bulldogs outfit, but expect them to chalk up another victory as they cement their grip on spot #1. Frustratingly good!
PREDICTIONS
Western Bulldogs v Sydney
Fremantle/Walyalup v Collingwood
North Melbourne v Port Adelaide/Yartapuulti
Carlton v Gold Coast
MATCH OF THE ROUND
Geelong v GWS
The redemption battlestakes sees the out-of-form Cats take on the out-of-form Giants. The Cats will be eager to prevent back-to-back cattery losses, but their NSW opponents are just too good to go down again. They’ll show the rest of the comp while they’re still a force to be reckoned with. Giants by 10 points for mine.
Richmond v Essendon
Hawthorn v Brisbane
Melbourne/Narrm v St Kilda/Euro-Yroke
Adelaide/Kuwarna v West Coast/Waalitj Marawar
See you in a weeks time as we preview the action before the first major BYE Round of the season.
