Round 12 AFL Power Rankings & Predictions
A week after correctly predicting all 9 matches, we preview a hard-to-read Round 12 of AFL action.
POWER RANKINGS
Teams are ranked based on a variety of factors, nonetheless their list strength, current form, and expected future performance. For example, if the 1st placed team Sydney were currently to play the 2nd placed Collingwood at a neutral venue, I would expect the 1st (Sydney) to win, based on the strength of their first 10 performances, recent Finals history, and the quality of their available list.
LAUGHING STOCKS
18 — North Melbourne
Simply can’t get the ball rolling in another dreadful season. For the horror of the past 11 Rounds, they’ve found a key defensive pillar in Charlie Comben and the continual development of gun Harry Sheezel is another positive. Yet gun forward Nick Larkey’s prime years are being wasted, and you wonder when enough is enough.
17 — Richmond
Played admirably in their annual Dreamtime blockbuster. Staying with the Bombers for most of the night, the addition of Noah Balta made a world of difference. More devastation on the injury front presents a rather gloomy outlook on what was a rare positive week.
EUROPE IN SEPTEMBER
16 — West Coast
Wow. If you want to learn how to completely destroy any momentum you have, the Eagles can help you. Absolutely putrid a week after being simply scintillating. Proof they’re still off the pace and remain in the footy wilderness, but they’ll present a shock every now and then.
15 — St Kilda
Ross the Boss, or Ross at a loss, the Saints are in a shambles. Ross looks completely hopeless in arresting the downhill slide, but at least the fixturing Gods have presentable them with a winnable one against West Coast. With a strong showing from their midfield mix, including a bounce-back game from Rowan Marshall, expect them to return to the winners list away from home in Round 12.
14 — Hawthorn
Has been some sort of turnaround from a team that once looked dead and buried. Seemed destined to be in the #1 pick sweepstakes before the return of Will Day, the emergence of Lloyd Meek and a revamped Blake Hardwick. Fresh off a massive win against the Lions, expect them to be humbled by the Crows. Won’t take away from the fact that they’re a much-improved outfit.
13 — Gold Coast
In what was their best away showing of 2024, the Suns were still downed by 5 goals against a resurgent Blues outfit. Might win every game at home, but it won’t be enough to lockdown a Top 8 spot. Face a big test at home against fellow Top 8 contenders Essendon. Lose this, and they’re cooked.
12 — Western Bulldogs
Played incredibly well against the chart-topping Swans, but when you drop games you can ill afford to lose early in the season, you need these types of upsets. Will find it immensely difficult to make the 8 ahead of a massive offseason. Another chance to pull off a boil-over against the Pies. It just needs to happen.
11- Adelaide
Did their percentage no harm with a hugely important win over the Eagles. Face an in-form Hawks team eager to deliver for their home fans. Expect the Crows to continue on their merry way and climb closer to the 8 with a closely fought victory.
10 — Brisbane
Just when the engine started to run, the Lions finals’ wagon broke down. Will need to refresh and recharge through this week’s BYE and come back as a revigorated outfit. Their 2024 campaign has just not been good enough.
GENUINE CHALLENGERS
9 — Fremantle
Another week, little to no signs of improvement from Freo. Were dead and buried against an under-strength Collingwood, and the comeback to snatch an impossible draw was inspirational, but they still can’t beat Top 8 opposition. Can that all change in Alice Springs?
8 — Essendon
Ticking along nicely, the Bombers are doing their Finals aspirations no harm. Have jumped out of the blocks to sit clear 2nd, they’ll need to continue their winning ways in the back half of the year. The first test in an immensely difficult end to the season begins this week against the Suns. Can they conquer the Suns' home fortress?
7 — Geelong
My early-season prediction for Geelong is beginning to look better and better by the week. After jumping out of the blocks to remain the only undefeated team through 7 Rounds, they’ve endured a descent from hell to remain a chance of dropping out of the 8. Their midfield is simply not good enough against the top teams, and the shutting down of Tom Stewart has exposed their lack of other defensive weapons. Desperately need Dangerfield.
FINALS LOCKS
6 — Port Adelaide
Hard to prove anything when you’re playing an Auskick Team, but the Power recorded a hugely important win. With another chance to put their ‘pretender’ label to bed against a league giant in Carlton, I expect them to deliver.
5 — Melbourne
Showcased the consistency their season has been characterised by. Absolutely brutal in the middle and soul crashing at the back, the Dees are back to winning ways. Face a similarly structured Freo team that they’ve struggled against in recent times, expect them to finally oust their recent nemesis. After all, they’re not playing at the MCG.
4 — Carlton
Undoubtedly the most inconsistent of the Top 4, the Blues showcased their punishing best against the Suns. Seem to be tracking nicely to make an assault for ladder proper Top 4 come season end, but will experience a slight road bump in the Power in their upcoming fixture.
3 — GWS
Rightfully had their doubters after a disappointing 3 game slide, but the Giants are back. Despite a last-quarter capitulation, inspirational individual efforts from Leek Aleer and Toby Greene return them to their winning ways. Expect to see this continue as they lock down a Top 4 spot, post-BYE.
2 — Collingwood
Despite the draw, the Pies have shown enough to convince me they’re back. Down several soldiers, they were simply too good for Freo for most of Friday night. There is no other team that personifies the next-man-up mentality like the Pies. Will continue their undefeated ways, celebrating the return of some big names in another Friday night blockbuster.
MILES CLEAR
1 — Sydney
Challenged away from home and they responded. Take a massive 2 game advantage into the BYE, they are all but locked into a Top 4 spot. Won’t want to rest too much and give up their clear early-season advantage, but for now and the foreseeable future, the Swans are the team to beat.
PREDICTIONS
MATCH OF THE ROUND
Port Adelaide v Carlton
In a battle for a Top 4 spot, the Power take on the Blues on the hallowed Adelaide Oval turf. The Port has struggled against fellow Premiership contending clubs this season, but I expect them to put those ‘pretender’ concerns to bed with a massive victory. Massive ramifications for the Power before they head into the BYE before the back half of the season.
Collingwood v Western Bulldogs
Hawthorn v Adelaide
West Coast v St Kilda
Geelong v Richmond
Melbourne v Fremantle
Gold Coast v Essendon
BYES for Brisbane, North Melbourne, Sydney & GWS
Hope you enjoy the first of our BYE-Round action. Happy predicting!
