Round 14 AFL Power Rankings & Predictions
The race for the Top 8 is wide open after some huge shocks throughout the first 2 BYE rounds.
POWER RANKINGS
Teams are ranked based on a variety of factors, nonetheless their list strength, current form, and expected future performance. For example, if the 1st placed team Sydney were currently to play the 2nd placed Carlton at a neutral venue, I would expect the 1st (Sydney) to win, based on the strength of their first 12 performances, recent Finals history, and the quality of their available list.
LAUGHING STOCKS
18 — North Melbourne
After what felt like an eternity, the Kangas' 1st win has arrived. Nearly bottling a 5 goal Final Quarter lead, you seriously doubt whether that win could’ve been any more unconvincing. A pretty meaningless 4 points (aside from a minor confidence boost) at the end of the day.
EUROPE IN SEPTEMBER
17 — West Coast
If just weeks prior they had turned Optus Stadium into a fortress, what now remains are ruins. A nightmare performance against a terrible Kangas side, the BYE couldn’t have come at a better time.
16 — Richmond
Richmond is a completely different side with their best on the park. That was on full display with a huge boilover of the Crows. Will no doubt climb the charts in the coming weeks if they can turn tight finishes into morale-boosting victories.
15 — Adelaide
After a brief early season turnaround, the Crows are dead and buried. Couldn’t punish the Tigers when it mattered, and it has been the story of their season. Absymal skill execution and disposal efficiency are to blame for an atrocious season.
14 — St Kilda
Have won some admirers over the past 2 weeks, but let me make this clear, the Saints are nowhere near a Top 8 side. One of the more problematic lists in the AFL, they continue to be stuck in football obscurity with no end in sight. Start of a grim few years ahead for the Sainters.
13 — Gold Coast
Football voodoos are often just illusions, but the Suns away voodoo is very real. The gift that never delivers, the Suns succumbed to a loss they just couldn’t afford. Can they finally break the voodoo after their mid-season BYE?
12 — Western Bulldogs
I’ve said it all season, and I’ll say it again, the Dogs should come with a ‘Treat With Caution’ label. At their blistering best they’re scintillating, at their worst, absolutely woeful. Which Bulldogs outfit will we get against Top 8 challengers Fremantle this week?
11 — Brisbane
Just when you think they’re down and out, the Lions find a way. Are a force to be reckoned with when they’re fit and firing, but the Lions aren’t quite the team of old. Should pick up a win over the hapless Saints, but it’ll likely matter little in their pursuit of a Top 8 spot.
10 — Hawthorn
The Hawks are one of the form teams of the comp. Have been exceptional since the return of Will Day, and have rightfully soared the charts, but making Finals from an 0–5 start is a bridge too far. The most dangerous team outside the Finals race.
GENUINE CHALLENGERS
9 — Geelong
You should always trust your gut — one of many lessons you can learn from this year's Geelong Cats (just like how weak midfields get punished). Have been hugely disappointing across the past 2 months, and they’ll be hoping they can revitalise themselves post their mid-season BYE.
8 — Melbourne
It’s not how hard you fall, but how you respond. Following their disastrous loss to Fremantle, their follow-up performance against the Pies wasn’t much to write home about. A season-defining post-BYE period awaits. A period they’ll embark on without key cog Christian Petracca.
7 — Essendon
Have lowered their colours in recent weeks, but it hasn’t been as devastating as that of those around them. Find themselves teetering on the edge of the Finals cliff after a brilliant start to the season. Should return to winning ways post-BYE.
6 — Fremantle
Placing this consistent Freo outfit in 6th, a team that has proven little against the best is fraught with danger, but that’s the state of the current finals race. Frozen from the 8 in my Power Rankings for so long, they now find themselves on the brink of the 4. Whilst that appears unlikely, if they can get on a roll and chalk up some big wins in the coming weeks, starting with this week's clash against the Bulldogs, they’ll give the 4 a sniff.
FINALS LOCKS
5 — Port Adelaide
In no other year would a team so poor against the best be on the precipice of the 4. Somehow that is the predicament Port find themselves in. Ever consistent and reliable (bar a disappointing loss to the Crows), they sit above their inconsistent chart-topping opponents.
4 — GWS
There are no doubts that the Giants are a quality team. Yet recently, there have been doubts over their ability to kick a winning score. With Jesse Hogan tamed and the rest of their forward mix unable to fire, they find themselves in a rut. How long will it take them to get out of it?
PREMIERSHIP CONTENDERS
3 — Collingwood
As they say, the cream rises to the top. Collingwood is proving exactly that 13 rounds into the season. 0–3 to start the season and now down several premiership guns, they continue to fire and chalk up the points. You can sense that they’re gearing up for finals time and another Premiership assault.
2 — Carlton
It’s been a long time between drinks (of the Premiership variety) for the Blues, and for the 1st time in a long time, they appear close. Have some of the biggest names in the comp, yet it has been their ‘lesser names’ that have catapulted them to the next level in season 2024.
MILES AHEAD
1 — Sydney
Like the sun rising in the morning, you know you’re going to get a good Swans performance every week. Look a cut above the rest for the time being, but a lot can change in a few weeks of footy. No time for complacency as the chasing pack hunts them down.
PREDICTIONS
Brisbane v St Kilda
Western Bulldogs v Fremantle
Richmond v Hawthorn
Adelaide v Sydney
North Melbourne v Collingwood
MATCH OF THE ROUND
GWS v Port Adelaide
In a clash with huge Top 4 ramifications, the Port take on the Giants. Yet another chance to prove they can contend with the best of them, can the Power finally break their voodoo? I expect not as the Giants return to their winning ways.
That wraps up my preview of the penultimate BYE Round. Enjoy the upcoming round of footy!
