Round 15 AFL Power Rankings & Predictions
The Top 8 again remains unsettled after another eye-opening round of footy action.
POWER RANKINGS
Teams are ranked based on a variety of factors, nonetheless their list strength, current form, and expected future performance. For example, if the 1st placed team Sydney were currently to play the 2nd placed Carlton at a neutral venue, I would expect the 1st (Sydney) to win, based on the strength of their first 13 performances, recent Finals history, and the quality of their available list.
LAUGHING STOCKS
18 – North Melbourne
Very nearly earned themselves a ticket off this listing, but a 2nd half capitulation highlights the woefulness of the club. An unthinkable loss of an 8-goal half-time lead, and an unfathomable squandering of a 54-point lead. All so very Northly!
EUROPE IN SEPTEMBER
17 – West Coast
Hugely disappointing in their pre-BYE loss to the Kangas, the Eagles will be eager to make amends. Face an out-of-form Dons outfit, a team they nearly toppled earlier in the season, they present an outside chance for a major upset.
16 – Richmond
With their guns back, the Tigers were meant to fire. Yet a week after a promising showing, they fell into a dark chasm in Dusty’s 300th. Youth development is crucial in the back half of the season.
15 – St Kilda
Much like the Saints season, Round 14 was another ‘what if’ game for the Saints. Made the most unlikely of comeback charges but it all fell short at the Gabba. Big changes are needed over the Summer.
14 – Adelaide
Arguably the most disappointing team this season, the Crows languish near the bottom of the ladder. At their best, they can challenge the best, but their damaging best has been non-existent for most of the year. A wasted season.
13 – Gold Coast
The ultimate tease, the Suns sit just outside the 8. Have visible finals potential, yet for all their home heroics, it is their woeful away form that continues to derail their Top 8 push. Can they silence the critics against the Dockers?
12 – Brisbane
The Lions are back up and roaring. Have returned to their damaging attacking best, tuning out monster scores in back-to-back weeks, but they’ll need a near-perfect finish to the season to make finals. That means big wins, starting this week against Port.
11 – Hawthorn
One of the form teams of the comp, the Hawks have come from the clouds. Finding themselves on the brink of the 8 after an 0–5 start to the season, they’re an outside sniff for finals. But they’ll need to beat contenders before they can be taken seriously.
GENUINE CHALLENGERS
10 – Geelong
If Hawthorn are the league's form team, the Cats are possibly the polar opposite. After a scintillating start to the season, they find themselves teetering on the edge of the 8. Can they find their best and topple the Blues for a 2nd time this season? I think not.
9 – Melbourne
With news that Christian Petracca is out for the remainder of the season, the Dees are in real trouble. And it’s all starting in the coal face, once the envy of the comp (and the club’s most formidable weapon). Oliver and Viney have been drastically down on their usual output, and they’ve become incredibly reliant on Max Gawn. Can someone else step up to save the Dees season?
8 – Fremantle
I sang their praises with great caution last week and they woefully failed the litmus test. Looking devoid of their usual defensive identity in a Saturday horror show against the Dogs, they’ll be eager to return to the winner's list against the Suns. Should get it done!
7 – Essendon
Can thank their strong early season form for their current ranking. Have lowered their colours considerably in recent weeks, but incompetence around them, and an easy post-BYE matchup against the Eagles should cement them in the 8 for the foreseeable future.
6 – Western Bulldogs
Yes, the Dockers were atrocious last Saturday afternoon, but credit must go to the Bulldogs. Showcased their damaging best, which they’ve already proven can challenge the best of them, with absolute aplomb. Only inconsistency can destroy their Finals charge.
FINALS LOCKS
5 – Port Adelaide
Fell to yet another contender in a loss to the gettable Giants, the Power have question marks all over them. Yet for their lack of Premiership potency, they remain a solid Top 8 outfit. They’ll make the 8, but at this stage, they’re only making up the numbers.
4 – GWS
A much-needed win against the Power cements the Giants in the Top 8. Have proven themselves against the best of the best so far this season, and I see this continuing with a huge win against cross-town rivals Sydney in a major Premiership shakeup.
PREMIERSHIP CONTENDERS
3 – Collingwood
If there is one team you can never count out, it is the Collingwood Magpies. Simply do not give in, and have a remarkable knack for winning the tight games, you can bet they’ll go deep in finals action. They’ll enjoy their brief break before a late-season charge.
2 – Carlton
With genuine A-Graders all around the park, it is no surprise that Carlton find themselves in 2nd position. The greatest threat to the Swans at the moment, Carlton fans will be licking their chops ahead of a monster finish to the season. It starts with this Friday night's blockbuster against Geelong.
MILES AHEAD
1 – Sydney
Have been in cruise control over the past 3 months, but it all appears destined to change. Face a reborn Giants outfit eager to right the wrongs of their earlier loss, in an intriguing matchup. Lose or draw, and the Premiership race (whilst still led by the Swans), will get a little bit closer.
PREDICTIONS
Carlton v Geelong
Port Adelaide v Brisbane
MATCH OF THE ROUND
GWS v Sydney
Arguably the biggest matchup in the footy calendar so far this season, the Giants face cross-town rivals Sydney on their home turf. With the Swans flying, GWS will need a giant effort to clip their wings, and I think they’ll do it, pushing the Premiership door wide open.
Melbourne v North Melbourne
Essendon v West Coast
Fremantle v Gold Coast
BYES for Adelaide, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, St Kilda, Richmond
If my tipping is any indication, Round 15 will be an ode to home-ground advantage. Enjoy this week’s action!
