Round 18 AFL Power Rankings & Predictions
Another massive round of footy awaits. We dive deep into all the action.
POWER RANKINGS
Teams are ranked based on a variety of factors, nonetheless their list strength, current form, and expected future performance. For example, if the 1st placed team Sydney were currently to play the 2nd placed Carlton at a neutral venue, I would expect the 1st (Sydney) to win, based on the strength of their first 16 performances, recent Finals history, and the quality of their available list.
LAUGHING STOCKS
18 — Richmond
With many of their stars back on the park, the expectation was that the Tigers would rise. But rise they have not, and their lack of competitiveness has them languishing at the bottom of my Power Rankings.
17 — West Coast
In a week in which your coaching credentials have been tested, it’s probably not a good look to lose to an out-of-form team by 50+ points. The last straw for the Eagles board in sacking premiership coach Adam Simpson. West Coast are having a disastrous end to a season that showed incredible promise.
EUROPE IN SEPTEMBER
16 — North Melbourne
Have been super impressive off the BYE, despite chalking up only 2 wins. Face the toughest road journey in footy against the Swans, fresh off a disappointing fortnight. If they can keep it within 5 goals, it’ll be another big leap for the footy club.
15 — St Kilda
Only St Kilda could pull off a Sydney Swans upset whilst languishing near the bottom of the ladder. Need to incorporate that pressure, ferociousness and intensity into their football on a more consistent basis, like again this week against the similarly inconsistent Adelaide.
14 — Adelaide
Round 17 was a perfect summation of the fortunes of the Adelaide Crows footy club in season 2024. Were very good for long stretches against Brisbane but were equally very disappointing for long stretches too. In-game and week-to-week consistency is still a major issue for one of the most potent teams outside the 8.
13 — Gold Coast
It’s the gift that just keeps on giving, Gold Coast and their inability to win away from home. With one of the easiest road trips in footy, they squandered a golden opportunity to snatch their first road win for the season and snag a spot in the 8. Not the biggest fan of Hardwick, but reckon he was spot-on with his post-match spat. They need to grow up.
12 — Hawthorn
Losses by that margin and magnitude are simply unacceptable for a team making a late charge to the 8. Need to respond in a big way against the increasingly damaging Freo, but I think their winning bubble has been burst.
TOP 8 CHALLENGERS
11 — Melbourne
Jumped back onto the winners' list for their 1st win in a month. Not without their fair share of midfield firepower (Oliver, Viney) and with Max Gawn out injured, that underperforming star power must deliver. Expect them to be on the outside looking in coming finals time.
10 — Western Bulldogs
Have come crashing down to Earth off the back of yet another disastrous performance. Looked to have put their inconsistency behind them, but with finals coming up, and room to make up, they can ill-afford a repeat. The most damaging team outside the 8 for mine.
9 — Port Adelaide
Claimed a much-needed scalp against the Dogs in a big 8-point clash. Yet with their best few and far between post-BYE, we’ll need to see a repeat performance to warrant an ascension. Can’t see them toppling any of the big guns, but they’ll be around the mix.
8 — Essendon
The Bombers mightn’t be flying up, up to win the Premiership flag, but their recent victory over the Pies was much-needed to get their season back on track. Have one of the easiest fixtures to end the season out of the Top 8 challengers, and they have a pretty healthy list. Near the front of the finals hunt.
7 — Collingwood
I’ve been very generous towards the Pies, but their successive losses, most recently against arch-rivals Essendon have exposed their diminishing potency. Have been toppled in back-to-back tight tussles, and the leakiness of their back 6 is a big concern. Still a force to be reckoned with, but no longer a major Premiership contender.
6 — Geelong
The Cats have turned back the clock in a massive fortnight of footy. Toppling the Dons and Hawks, they’ve claimed 2 massive scalps in fellow finals-chasing opposition. Expect them to heap more misery on Pies fans in another finals-shaping match of footy.
DARK HORSES
5 — GWS
I’ve been patient, but the Giants have finally secured the scalp I’ve been calling for. That win, over premiership contenders Carlton throws them back into premiership calculations. Premiership favourites for a large part of the beginning of the season, I expect them to continue on their winning ways, recapturing their early season form and having a big say in September.
4 — Fremantle
With everyone else falling around them, the Dockers have made the most of other contenders’ incompetence. Chalking up tough wins away from home has been at the forefront of that, and with their sky-high confidence, I expect that to continue with a gutsy last-gasp win over the Hawks.
3 — Brisbane
Brisbane may well be the most threatening team in the comp. With one of the league’s deepest lists, plenty of finals experience and the return of forgotten prodigy Will Ashcroft, they looked to have peaked at the perfect time. With the form that they’re in, it’s going to take a mighty effort to stop them.
PREMIERSHIP CONTENDERS
2 — Carlton
Absolutely monstered post-quarter time, the Blues suffered an expected letdown defeat. Will quickly restore their winning ways, but they might suffer another temporary hiccup against the ever-dangerous Dogs.
1 — Sydney
If Freo was a shock, St Kilda was an absolute disaster. Yet disaster is a strong word for a team that is still the near-unanimous #1 team in the comp. Midfield has dropped their colours dramatically in the past fortnight, but they should return to their chart-topping ways. No chance they suffer a 3rd successive defeat against the Kangas.
PREDICTIONS
Collingwood v Geelong
Hawthorn v Fremantle
Sydney v North Melbourne
MATCH OF THE ROUND
Western Bulldogs v Carlton
A huge Saturday afternoon clash pits the comps’ 2 big bulls (Crippa and the Bont) head-to-head. With both teams eager to get back on the winners list, and a Finals and Top 2 spot to play for respectively, it’s a mammoth encounter. Dogs to get home and finish the round on the precipice of the 8.
Adelaide v St Kilda
Melbourne v Essendon
Gold Coast v Port Adelaide
Richmond v GWS
West Coast v Brisbane
Enjoy this week’s enthralling action. I’ll see you again this time next week.
