Round 20 AFL Power Rankings & Predictions
5 rounds remain in one of the widest finals races in recent memory. Which 9 teams will claim victory in another mammoth weekend of footy?
POWER RANKINGS
Teams are ranked based on a variety of factors, nonetheless their list strength, current form, and expected future performance. For example, if the 1st placed team Sydney were currently to play the 2nd placed Brisbane at a neutral venue, I would expect the 1st (Sydney) to win, based on the strength of their first 18 performances, recent Finals history, and the quality of their available list.
LAUGHING STOCKS
18 – West Coast
Getting demolished by a fellow basket-case team doesn’t spell good viewing for Eagles fans. A disastrous finish to the season, but we know what can happen in Western Derbys. Don’t count them out…
17 – Richmond
Holding their own against a strong Port team through 3QTRs, there was lots to like about the Tigers' recent performance. A last-quarter capitulation signals the lack of consistency you’d expect from a young side, but the last few weeks have seen considerable improvement.
EUROPE IN SEPTEMBER
16 – North Melbourne
Keeping it tight against an AFL heavyweight, the Kangas demonstrated the incredible improvement they’ve made post-BYE in yet another disappointing season. Don’t be surprised if they pull off a major upset against the Cats.
15 – St Kilda
Have had a mini redemption of sorts over the last month, but one thing remains certain, the Saints are still a shit team. Another winnable game against the Dons awaits. Can they pull off another late-season upset?
14 – Adelaide
Could well and truly be higher on this list after an impressive fortnight but their post-Essendon injury toll is damaging. Will find it difficult to back up their recent form without skipper Jordan Dawson and several key defensive stocks.
13 – Collingwood
Have fallen off a cliff and then some in a disastrous month of football. Lacking the defensive stinginess that won them last years’ premiership and appear to have lost self belief. Surely they can’t lose to stragglers Richmond?
12 – Gold Coast
Still cannot win a game away from home, and they face an all-mighty test against their QLD rivals to maintain their unbeaten home record. Too many wasted opportunities in another wasted season.
11 – Melbourne
A win against Freo would’ve catapulted them into the 8, but a disastrous defeat sees them slide further down the pecking order. Their once almighty midfield remains a shell of its former self. Need a late-season midfield redemption to save a lost season.
TOP 8 CHALLENGERS
10 – Essendon
For the 2nd straight year, Essendon have had quite the fall from grace. A devastating loss at home to the Crows, in a fascinating Friday night encounter sees their Finals chances hanging by a thread. Can’t afford another slip-up against another mediocre side in St Kilda.
9 – Port Adelaide
It wasn’t convincing, but it was another 4 points nonetheless. Have a massive clash at the G against heavyweights Carlton, with a favourable draw post-this clash awaiting. Don’t be surprised if they make the finals, but they won’t be making much (if any) noise.
8 – Hawthorn
Hawthorn’s miraculous turnaround has been the story of the season. With a woeful percentage and needing no mistakes to continue their finals charge, the Hawks monster Collingwood demolition was monumental. With an easy run home, they’ll need a big slip-up to miss finals now. A big danger side.
7 – Geelong
It’s difficult to get a grasp on the Cats but another home-ground capitulation sees real question marks looking over their finals capabilities. Should make the finals with ease, but they’ll be as potent as a blunt knife. Their best just isn’t good enough.
DARK HORSES
6 – Fremantle
A week after a damaging away defeat to Hawthorn, the Dockers responded in incredibly convincing fashion. Back into the 4 and nearly leapfrogging the Lions on percentage, they could be in for another percentage-boosting game this weekend. Massive few weeks ahead.
5 – Western Bulldogs
Another Top 8 side, another comprehensive victory, the Bulldogs are building quite the premiership resume. Yet with a slow start to the season and some disappointing losses to teams down the bottom, they find themselves on the outside of the 8. Can they tune in another huge performance against the ladder-leading Swans?
4 – GWS
Far from convincing in their past 2 victories, you could question GWS’ claims to this spot, but their electric best, and recent finals experience gives them the edge over Freo and the Bulldogs. A dangerous game against an embattled Melbourne team awaits, but they should comfortably pick up an important away victory.
PREMIERSHIP CONTENDERS
3 – Carlton
Have experienced a huge drop off in form across the last 3 weeks, but there are no danger signs for the Blues yet. Still lay claim to a Top 2 spot and the all-important home, double-chance double. It’s only a matter of time before they rediscover their blistering best, and that could begin this week against the historically impotent Power.
2 – Brisbane
Gained even more momentum towards their Premiership push with an exhilarating last-gasp victory over the Swans. Just keep chalking up the wins, and have a real knack for winning the tight ones. A massive Q-Clash fixture awaits. Can they break the Suns' absurd unbeaten home run?
1 – Sydney
If Brisbane’s victory had been comprehensive, Sydney would no doubt fall to #2 on this list. Lose little to no admirers in a tight loss away to their leading Premiership contender, but can’t afford many more losses. Is their disappointing record in close games (0–4 in games under 10 points this season) a cause for concern?
PREDICTIONS
Carlton v Port Adelaide
North Melbourne v Geelong
Gold Coast v Brisbane
St Kilda v Essendon
Melbourne v GWS
Fremantle v West Coast
Collingwood v Richmond
MATCH OF THE ROUND
Sydney v Western Bulldogs
A clash of the Titans sees the Swans take on the Bulldogs. A Sunday SCG Spectacle, can the Bulldogs pick up another massive victory and continue the Swans' late-season rot? A big statement victory for the Swans is on the cards as they rubbish their Premiership naysayers.
Adelaide v Hawthorn
Enjoy this week’s footy action. It promises to be an enticing one!
