Round 21 AFL Power Rankings & Predictions
A week of chaos has thrown the Premiership race wide open. Let’s dive into the Round 21 fixtures and the current footy landscape.
POWER RANKINGS
Teams are ranked based on a variety of factors, nonetheless their list strength, current form, and expected future performance. For example, if the 1st placed team Brisbane were currently to play the 2nd placed Sydney at a neutral venue, I would expect the 1st (Brisbane) to win, based on the strength of their first 19 performances, recent Finals history, and the quality of their available list.
LAUGHING STOCKS
18 – Richmond
Slaughtered by a Nick Daicos masterclass, the Tigers were left to rue their decision not to tag. Surely they won’t let lightning strike twice and will nullify 2nd-year phenom Harry Sheezel in a match that could decide this year's wooden spoon.
17 – West Coast
An honourable effort through 2 quarters wasn’t enough to carry the Eagles home in a 2nd successive Derby. Too much in-game inconsistency to mount a serious challenge to teams in the finals hunt.
EUROPE IN SEPTEMBER
16 – North Melbourne
Fought long and hard in a scrappy game in Tassy, before a demoralising final term. Lots to like from the Kangas through this one. Should claim their 3rd win of the season in a Pick 1 showdown, a reminder of their major uptick in form post-BYE.
15 – Adelaide
Last week’s injuries were a killer, but the Crows had no right to fall to that kind of defeat against the Hawks. Absolutely carved up through the middle and completely ripped to shreds in front of their home fans. A hugely disappointing performance.
14 – Gold Coast
They may be called the Suns, but after losing their 1st game at home, the Suns lost their only bright spot from the season. Another wasted season for ‘The Hopeless Little Brother’ in Queensland.
13 – St Kilda
After a disappointing season pre-BYE, the Saints have come out guns blazing in recent weeks. Will be eager for another big takedown in the form of Brisbane, but it’ll be a bridge too far, even on their home turf.
12 – Melbourne
Could very well be the beginning of the end for a team once dubbed the next dynasty. Fell to a heartbreaking loss to GWS to put their finals chances on life support, and a loss against the Dogs would almost certainly pull the plug. Have a good recent record against the Dogs, but they’re not the team they once were.
11 – Collingwood
Up against the canvas, the Pies cannot afford any more slip-ups. A season of unbelievable highs, and equally unbelievable lows could all fall in a whimper with a loss to their historic foe. Would need a lot to go their way, but write the reigning premiers off at your own peril.
TOP 8 CHALLENGERS
10 – Essendon
With an abysmal percentage and plenty of points to makeup, time’s running out for the Dons. Face a tough test in 3rd-placed Freo, but these are the wins they must now claim. Can they make a late-season charge to a finals spot that seemed almost certain through the halfway point of the season?
9 – GWS
I’ve sung my praises of the Giants in recent weeks, but their form across the past couple has been average. Certainly have the game to match the best of them, but we’ll have to see an uptick in form for them to really challenge in the finals race. That starts with a massive clash against the flying Hawks.
8 – Geelong
Recorded a much-needed away win to reaffirm their position inside the Top 8. A big chance to claim a Top 4 spot, but I’ve got too many question marks over their finals potency. A consistent team, but lack the X-Factor of their more credentialed finals counterparts.
7 – Port Adelaide
Sprung a major upset over the Blues in their biggest win of the season in their last outing. Is this part of an improved Port with newfound confidence to challenge the best? I’m not yet sure, but their midfield X-Factor could very well hold the key.
DARK HORSES
6 – Hawthorn
In a similar fashion to the 2023 Giants, the Hawks are closing the season on a tear. Sit outside the Top 8 on percentage, but could pose a massive threat should they make the finals. And that appears increasingly likely with a favourable end to the season after this week’s Giant assignment.
5 – Fremantle
Were shaky in their eventual comfortable Derby victory but picked up another crucial 4 points in their double-chance drive. Another massive 4 points up for grabs in a huge clash against the Bombers with a slip-up having potentially disastrous consequences. Plenty of X-Factor and star-power about them, but their consistency remains a barrier.
PREMIERSHIP CONTENDERS
4 – Carlton
Have fallen off dramatically in recent weeks, but it’s not yet panic stations for this star-studded Blues side. Still have a team the envy of the competition, despite some injury concerns. Can they arrest their downward momentum and pick up a crucial 4 points against Collingwood? I’m not so sure.
3 – Western Bulldogs
If there’s any team that can come from outside the Top 4 to claim the Premiership, it’s the Dogs. Have already proven they’re capable of doing that (in 2016, albeit a long time ago), and have claimed crucial wins against genuine heavyweights throughout the season. Should make light work of Melbourne under Friday Night Lights as they seek to make another Premiership dream a reality.
2 – Sydney
All good things must come to an end…unfortunately, that’s the case with Sydney and their long reign over the #1 spot in my Power Rankings. Very much a genuine Premiership threat, but they’ll want to rediscover their best quickly as we approach the pointy end of the season. Haven’t been helped by some massive injuries over the last fortnight.
1 – Brisbane
Almost 7 weeks ago, after much patience, I was ready to write the Lions off. Stuck in middle-of-the-pack obscurity, without several key players and unable to piece wins together. How the turn tables have turned. Find themselves firmly in 2nd spot on the ladder proper after a stunning 2-month stretch. They’re once again the team to beat.
PREDICTIONS
Western Bulldogs v Melbourne
West Coast v Gold Coast
North Melbourne v Richmond
Geelong v Adelaide
Collingwood v Carlton
Port Adelaide v Sydney
GAME OF THE ROUND
GWS v Hawthorn
If the earlier Giants, Hawks fixture was any indication, this should be an absolute cracker. With both teams eager to clamp down a spot in the Top 8 and take down a major rival, there’s a whole lot worth playing for. Giants to take care of business after a controversial finish to their last fixture. Expect Tom Green to be right amongst it.
Essendon v Fremantle
St Kilda v Brisbane
As always, enjoy this week’s footy action. We’re in for an absolute treat!
