Round 22 AFL Power Rankings & Predictions
A massive boilover and some big comebacks capped off another fascinating week of footy. We take a look at the footy landscape with 3 games left in the Home & Away Season.
POWER RANKINGS
Teams are ranked based on a variety of factors, nonetheless their list strength, current form, and expected future performance. For example, if the 1st placed team Brisbane were currently to play the 2nd placed Western Bulldogs at a neutral venue, I would expect the 1st (Brisbane) to win, based on the strength of their first 20 performances, recent Finals history, and the quality of their available list.
LAUGHING STOCKS
18 – Richmond
How the mighty have fallen. Appear almost destined to finish as this year's wooden spooners after a loss to fellow stragglers North. It’s a massive turnaround from the team with the most recent dynasty. Taranto and Hopper trades aren’t looking too good right now.
EUROPE IN SEPTEMBER
17 – North Melbourne
Look to have escaped the dreaded wooden spoon for a 2nd year running. Lots of positives to take away from a post-BYE ‘charge which has seen them claim 3 wins and play a highly competitive, attacking brand of football. Can 2024 be the year they finally escape mediocrity?
16 – West Coast
Picked up a massive scalp in the form of Gold Coast to all but ensure they don’t claim the dreaded spoon for the 2nd consecutive season. Another winnable game against the Kangas in a showdown of last year's top 2 draft prospects. Can the Eagles get some sweet, sweet revenge?
15 – Gold Coast
If you ever wanted an indication of the perks of home-ground advantage in football, just look at the Gold Coast. Have become a laughing stock since their inception into the comp, and their abysmal away record does that no favours. The wooden spooners away, Top 4 quality at home, it’s something Damien Hardwick will have nightmares about this off-season. And after a full year of speculation and talk, they’re not getting Dusty. A week all Suns fans would quickly like to forget.
14 – Adelaide
At their best, they’re a force. A star-studded forward line with offensive weapons to cripple you. At their worst, they're a purist nightmare, barely able to hit a target 10 metres away. They showed their best against Geelong and very nearly got the job done. Can they show more of that deadly potential against leading premiership contenders, the Bulldogs?
13 – St Kilda
If you needed any reminder why a team that has beaten Sydney, Collingwood and Essendon (3 teams that have far more weapons, talent and quality than themselves) are way outside the Top 8 then last Sunday you got your answer. Woefully inconsistent, and generally impotent – God knows how this team played finals footy last year.
12 – Melbourne
For most clubs, success is short-lived — it’s best to enjoy it whilst it lasts. Melbourne fans will be wishing they did now. The Sun looks to have set on the golden era of Melbourne’s footy. A consistent challenger for almost 5 years, walking away with a drought-breaking premiership. Don’t think we’ll be seeing the Dees salute again anytime soon. Can they reinvigorate their list this offseason?
11 – Collingwood
When there’s a will there’s a way. In Pendles 400th, the Pies found a way. Don’t see them pulling off an even bigger upset against the Swans. Their opponents may be battered and bruised, but there’s no way they’re giving up this one.
TOP 8 CHALLENGERS
10 – Essendon
The Dons may have just clawed over the line against the Dockers, but don’t let that deceive you. They were the better team and deserved to win that one. Couldn’t turn 1st half midfield and inside 50 dominance into goals, but they flicked the switch in the last. If they can play that efficient footy they’re a threat, but there are safer bets in the teams above them.
9 – Geelong
If the Cats wanted to put to bed any doubts over their home form this season, they failed in their close win against the Crows. Got the job done, but it was a near escape in what has been an alarming statistic for the Cats. Should scrape into the finals, but I struggle to see them making any noise.
8 – Carlton
If I could pick 1 team’s list to win a Premiership, I’d almost certainly choose the Blues. A-grade midfield, deadly forward line, and plenty of defensive weapons. Have had recent injury concerns, but so do chart-topping Brisbane. No excuses for a star-studded team that continues to underperform. This downward slide must be ended.
DARK HORSES
7 – Hawthorn
Dealt a nasty blow to their finals chances following a Giant comeback. But their ability to put themselves in winnable situations and challenge the best (even away from home) is telling. Expect them to do the same to the Blues this week in their last real challenge of the season. I reckon those in the Top 8 will be praying for their downfall – a true danger side.
6 – Fremantle
One of the hardest teams to read in the comp. Full of so much firepower, but continually disappoint on the big stage. Need to kill off their old ‘save the game’ habits. It has cost them 4 crucial games to fellow Top 8 opposition (Carlton, Port, Hawthorn, Essendon and very nearly Sydney). Huge week ahead.
5 – GWS
Have picked up 5 wins on the trot, and the last one was truly clinical. A massive come-from-behind victory to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Shouldn’t have been in that position to start, but when the Orange Tsunami gets going, they’re bloody hard to stop. A watch for Premiership contention.
PREMIERSHIP CONTENDERS
4 – Sydney
Sydney’s drop-off post-BYE has been astronomical. Once all but assured of the Minor Premiership, they now find themselves hanging on for dear life. Simply no excuses for 100+ point defeats at this stage of the season. Still in Premiership contention, but they’ll need to turn it around quickly.
3 – Port Adelaide
No team has boosted their stocks more over the past fortnight than Port. 2 classy victories over mammoth opposition, they couldn’t have been more impressive in those dispatchings. Can they keep the hot streak rolling into September?
2 – Western Bulldogs
They may be 2nd, but they have quite the resume. With an away victory over Sydney, and impressive wins over GWS, Fremantle and the Giants, they’re well placed to make a charge come September. The only question is, how often can they bring that debilitating best?
1 – Brisbane
The Lions have more than just risen from the canvas. They’ve well and truly crushed everything in their way. On an absolute tear to close the season, there is no team better placed for a Finals charge. Remember, this is a team hungry to avenge last year’s heartbreaking Grand Final loss.
PREDICTIONS
Sydney v Collingwood
Brisbane v GWS
North Melbourne v West Coast
Fremantle v Geelong
Essendon v Gold Coast
Melbourne v Port Adelaide
MATCH OF THE ROUND
Carlton v Hawthorn
With Carlton’s recent slide, there are massive Top 8 ramifications on the line in this monumental fixture. A loss could prove devastating, but a win would all but guarantee either side a Top 8 spot. Hawthorn to bounce back strongly from last week’s devastating defeat and heap more misery on the Blues faithful.
Richmond v St Kilda
Adelaide v Western Bulldogs
That’s all she wrote for Round 22 footy. Enjoy this week’s thrilling action!
