Round 23 AFL Power Rankings & Predictions
Some big scalps have top contenders in the fight of their lives to stay in the finals race. We unpack all the action.
POWER RANKINGS
Teams are ranked based on a variety of factors, nonetheless their list strength, current form, and expected future performance. For example, if the 1st placed team Brisbane were currently to play the 2nd placed Port Adelaide at a neutral venue, I would expect the 1st (Brisbane) to win, based on the strength of their first 21 performances, recent Finals history, and the quality of their available list.
LAUGHING STOCKS
18 – Richmond
Another demoralising loss to lowly St Kilda epitomises the Tigers' mighty fall. A season from hell for a team with pre-season finals aspirations.
EUROPE IN SEPTEMBER
17 – North Melbourne
Outdone by a classy West Coast comeback in an intriguing game of footy. Have been much improved since the BYE, but there’s still a long way to go. Can’t be losing those ones at home.
16 – West Coast
A 2nd successive win to put Schofield in the driver's seat for the Eagles' top job. A huge confidence booster in a season that was starting to stutter. Plenty to like in this season of growth for West Coast.
15 – St Kilda
Pulled off a big win against the Tigers, but it’s what you’d expect against a team on the canvas. Can take confidence in their post-BYE form, but it looks to be the start of another prolonged finals absence for the beleaguered Sainters’.
14 — Melbourne
Very nearly toppled the Power, but that loss all but assures them a September holiday. Huge disappointment for a team touted as one of the premiership contenders pre-season. A massive offseason awaits. Reckon there’ll be plenty of players on the chopping block.
13 – Adelaide
Snared a huge upset in mauling the Dogs to massively shake up the finals race. A big threat on their day, but it’s few and far between. Expect them to hand Port a similarly shocking upset and continue their Showdown hot streak.
12 – Gold Coast
At long last, one of the most embarrassing streaks in the history of the AFL has been ended. The dreaded away curse, which saw them suffer away losses to West Coast and North Melbourne well and truly crippled their season, but if they can rectify it (continuing on their form from the weekend), it’ll spell good news for their future aspirations. Could be in for a big offseason with some incoming Richmond recruits.
11 – Essendon
If there was one team that couldn’t afford to hand Gold Coast a streak-breaking away victory, it was the Dons. A remarkable fall from grace for a team that sat firmly in the Top 2 pre-BYE, and has endured a long finals-winning drought. Another season of heartbreak for Bombers fans.
10 – Collingwood
Collingwood’s reliance on winning close games was due to hurt them in the end…and on Friday night it did just that. Locked out of the finals race bar a miracle, they too fall victim to the premiership hangover.
Some big decisions ahead this offseason. I don’t see them throwing in the towel just yet. 1 more rodeo next season left in them.
TOP 8 CHALLENGERS
9 – Carlton
Have been absolutely decimated by injury, but that is no excuse for their dramatic fall from grace over the past month. A nightmare end to the season for a team firmly in Premiership calculations. Should scrape into finals with a soft finish to the season, but they’ll be making little to no noise in this form.
8 – Fremantle
From Top 2 hopeful to on the Finals periphery, the Dockers appear most likely to be the unlucky team to miss the 8. Haven’t been horrible, but their close-game performances have been abysmal. Can’t be a leading contender with the worst tight game form line in the comp.
7 – Geelong
Picked up a major scalp in dispatching Freo on their home deck. A Patrick Dangerfield final quarter masterclass all but assures them a Top 8 spot. However, a lack of X Factor and potency outside their injury-prone superstars makes it difficult for me to see them winning a final. Can they build some more form into the finals?
DARK HORSE
6 – Hawthorn
Pre-BYE it looked unthinkable, yet with 2 games left in the season, it’s close to a certainty – The Hawks are playing finals footy. An absurd turnaround for a team looking bereft of confidence and absolutely dead and buried 5 games into the season. Have one of the best post-BYE form lines in the comp. Don’t put it past them having a big, big say in September.
PREMIERSHIP CONTENDERS
5 – Sydney
They scraped over the line against Collingwood, but I think it says more about the Swans’ drop-off than anything else. Should not be struggling to beat teams outside the Top 8 on their home deck at this point of the season. Need a big finish to the season as they seek to rediscover their all-conquering early-season form.
4 – Western Bulldogs
If you’re wondering why the Dogs are barely in the 8 yet remain Premiership Contenders, just look at last Sunday – they only show up against the ‘Titans’.
A realistic chance of missing finals action altogether, but if they make it, there’ll make plenty of noise. At the end of the day, winning a premiership from the bottom of the 8, with the Swans as minor premiers is a story we’ve seen before.
3 – GWS
It was only a matter of time before the Giants found their best, and unlike their fellow Sydney counterparts, they found it at the right time. Looking like one of the big players in September action but they’ll need to get past 2 massive tests in Freo and the Bulldogs first. The team with the biggest influence over the Finals makeup.
2 – Port Adelaide
Having been woefully impotent against the best of the best for what seems like years, it’s all changed rather quickly for the Power. Having toppled the Blues, and demolished the Swans, they’ll want to continue their form line into September. Yet they face a huge test in SA rivals, Adelaide, with Freo to finish in a tough close to the season.
1 – Brisbane
They’ve been toppled for the first time in a long time, but they’re still the most consistently elite team in the comp. Boast a proven finals pedigree, a star-studded lineup and a list eager to right the wrongs of last. What better way to get back on the winners' list than by knocking the final nail in the coffin of last year's Grand Final foe, Collingwood?
PREDICTIONS
Essendon v Sydney
Gold Coast v Melbourne
MATCH OF THE ROUND
GWS v Fremantle
What once appeared as a battle for Top 4 supremacy has now become a matter of survival. With just 2 points separating Freo and 9th place, a 3rd successive slip-up could be fatal. Can they find another level to top the mighty Giants after their mammoth Brisbane upset?
Think they’ll be up against it without key pillar Josh Treacy in a thrilling game of footy. Attack to best defence as the Orange Tsunami breaks through the Dockers' stingy backline.
Some early Elimination Final footy in NSW.
Collingwood v Brisbane
Port Adelaide v Adelaide
St Kilda v Geelong
Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne
Hawthorn v Richmond
West Coast v Carlton
A thrilling weekend of footy awaits. Which of our Top 8 hopefuls will we see on the periphery at the end of the round?
