Round 24 AFL Power Rankings & Predictions

We preview all the action ahead of a massive final round of the Premiership season.

Don’t let this photo distract you. I see Geelong as the only team in the finals hunt without the star power to challenge this September. Photo Courtesy of AsianFC under CC BY 2.0.

POWER RANKINGS

Teams are ranked based on a variety of factors, nonetheless their list strength, current form, and expected future performance. For example, if the 1st placed team GWS were currently to play the 2nd placed Port Adelaide at a neutral venue, I would expect the 1st (GWS) to win, based on the strength of their first 22 performances, recent Finals history, and the quality of their available list.

LAUGHING STOCKS

18 – Richmond

Richmond fans will be happy to see the end of this one. A disastrous season on the field, with an equally disastrous offseason looming. Big moves are required this offseason.

17 – North Melbourne

The Kangas have earned a lot of respect post-BYE, but last week's performance against the Dogs damaged much of that. A woeful performance in a match where they had nothing to lose. How will they respond against Hawthorn this week?

EUROPE IN SEPTEMBER

16 – West Coast

Fresh off a 2-game winning high, the Eagles were pumped on their home deck by a battered Blues side. One of their worst performances of the year, surely they’ll bounce back strong and put in a competitive showing against the Cats.

15 – Gold Coast

Expectations were sky-high for Dimma’s 1st season in charge, but it’s been an absolute stinker. Plenty of highs, plenty of lows, but a horror show away from home, and woeful inconsistency is the story of their season.

14 – Adelaide

The Crows' eclectic forward bunch has come under plenty of scrutiny. How will this topsy, turvy team respond in the final game of the season?

One of the more frustrating teams in the comp with the visible talent on their list, the Crows have had a season they’d quickly like to forget. I doubt they’ll avoid scrutiny, especially after a mind-boggling decision to axe Josh Rachele. A season that will be remembered for all the wrong reasons.

13 – Melbourne

A season of 2 halves. One of the form teams of the comp pre-BYE, yet post-BYE they’ve absolutely capitulated. Will take some confidence into season 2025 following their Gold Coast showing, but it’s gonna take some offseason magic to reinvigorate this list.

12 – St Kilda

St Kilda’s list build has come under plenty of scrutiny. With a continued focus on ageing players past their prime, I see their mediocrity continuing.

Have earned a reputation as giant crushers in the run home, but it’s been far too late. Simply not able to perform when the pressures on, it’s something Ross the Boss will need to address if they’re going to trouble the 8 in season 2025.

11 – Essendon

Deja Vu. 2 seasons in a row the Dons have come bursting out the blocks, only to fall in a heap and end up limping over the finish line. Can they send their fans home with something to get excited about with a huge upset over the Lions at the Gabba in their final game of the season?

10 – Collingwood

A season of momentum swings and runs for the Pies, but one that ends in disappointment. Simply not good enough for much of the year, and not able to grasp enough of their trademark tight games. The Premiership hangover claims another victim.

TOP 8 CHALLENGERS

9 – Geelong

Much like the Pies, the Cats season has been characterised by runs. Blistering to start, woeful through the middle, and alright at the end. I’m afraid alright won’t cut it in the finals. Not enough X-Factor in this side to pose a remote threat in finals footy.

8 – Fremantle

There is no bigger ‘what if’ in season 2024 than Fremantle. Lacking the killer instinct that separates the good from the great, they languish in 9th with a 1–1–6 record in close games. Win their fair share of those, and they’re locked in the Top 4. Instead, they’ve booked an early elimination final with the Power. Have it all to play for.

7 – Carlton

Turned back the clock in an inspired showing against the Eagles. Bring destiny back into their own hands, and I don’t see it slipping, but St Kilda’s end-of-season run shows they could have other plans. At their best, they’re a real threat, but I find it hard-pressed to trust a hardly-fit Blues side.

DARK HORSE

6 – Hawthorn

The Hawks’ dramatic rise has been bolstered by the emergence of several young guns. Calsher Dear is just one of them.

They’re listed as a dark horse, but if it wasn’t for their horrendous start to the season, they’d be genuine contenders. Arguably the form team of the comp with their stunning form post-BYE, they’ll face an easy lead into September with a soft Roos matchup. Could cause some terror in the finals.

PREMIERSHIP CONTENDERS

5 – Western Bulldogs

I have the Dogs missing the 8 with a tough Ballarat assignment against the Giants, but if they lock in their spot, they’ll be right up there. Have the weapons and experience to beat anyone, and they boast the most damaging player in the comp. This team knows how to win from outside the 8.

4 – Brisbane

A disappointing fortnight sees them up against it to secure the vital double chance. Need to rediscover their brutal best against the Dons to restore their confidence ahead of the finals. Can’t afford to let their season slip away.

3 – Sydney

Have regained some form across the past few weeks but there’s a long way to go if they’re to be a genuine September threat. Their early season blitz, securing them top spot on the ladder proper helps their cause, as does the return of big game players, namely Chad Warner.

2 – Port Adelaide

The Power have more than proved their finals credentials over the past month. Destroying all challengers in their path, they’ve put themselves right in the mix for September. A huge game against the Dockers to snatch a Top 2 spot and the vital home, double chance. Can they get it done?

1 – GWS

Plenty of talent has come and gone, yet the Giants remain a perennial threat. Can they keep the momentum rolling into September?

For the 2nd season running, the Giants have got the tsunami rolling into September. With the return of gun-mid Stephen Coniglio, and a devastating forward mix (featuring the three-headed beast of Hogan, Greene and Daniels), they’re perfectly placed for a deep September tilt. Premiership favourites in my eyes.

PREDICTIONS

Melbourne v Collingwood

Geelong v West Coast

Richmond v Gold Coast

Hawthorn v North Melbourne

Brisbane v Essendon

Sydney v Adelaide

Western Bulldogs v GWS

Carlton v St Kilda

MATCH OF THE ROUND

Fremantle v Port Adelaide

They’ve had a great season, and it’s been rewarded with a league-topping 4 players in the Under22Best22, but they’ll need every one of those players to stand up (excluding the injured Josh Treacy) in a massive final game of the season.

There are plenty of scintillating fixtures to choose from in an exciting final round, but this one might take the cake.

2 teams with it all on the line. For Freo a spot in the 8 (assuming one of Carlton, the Bulldogs or Hawthorn lose) and for Port, a spot in the Top 2.

With both teams on different ends of the form spectrum, it’d be easy to pick the Power, but with their backs against the walls and aided by their home faithful, the Dockers will finally shred their tight game demons and scrape over the line in an absolute belter.

Will the final round disappoint or will it live up to expectations? I guess we’ll find out…