Round 3 AFL Power Rankings & Predictions
As we lead into Round 3, we take a look at all 18 teams and where they sit in the early season landscape.
POWER RANKINGS
Teams are ranked based on a variety of factors, nonetheless their list strength, current form, and expected future performance. For example, if the 1st placed team GWS were currently to play the 2nd placed Sydney, I would expect the 1st (GWS) to win, based on the strength of their first 3 performances and the quality of their available list.
18 – WEST COAST
In all honesty, there’s not much that this basket case of a team can do to drag themselves off the bottom of my Power Rankings. Without their best player and with game-changing young talent few and far between, expect a long road ahead for the Eagles.
17 – HAWTHORN
Was never bullish on the Hawks and on the weekend they showed why. Were big improvers (albeit with little to show for it last season), but the elevated pressure of a possible finals berth has knocked them off their feet. Will show glimpses, but are yet to present themselves as more than just a flash in the pan.
16 – NORTH MELBOURNE
Looked like they had finally burst onto the scene halfway through their Round 2 matchup. Damaging from the back half and with run aplenty, it was always a question of how long, rather than if they could sustain it. Will need to show more consistency before they can bounce up the charts, but look to have had big strides on the years gone by.
15 – RICHMOND
Despite languishing in 15th, the Tigers have impressed me. Have hung with Genuine Top 4 Contenders in back-to-back weeks, and seem to have reinvented themselves under Adam Yze. Only have them sitting in 15th due to a lack of growth I see from their younger brigade — will need to see some growth from their Under 22 brigade before I can bump them up the charts.
14 – ESSENDON
Sticking with the in-form Swans for much of their Round 2 encounter was a positive. But if it wasn’t for a Zach Merrett masterclass, it could’ve been much worse. Boast an impressive young midfield brigade, but remain extremely light in their key position brigade (with the suspension of Peter Wright adding more insult to injury). Not convinced.
13 – GOLD COAST
A low sample size can be misleading, and misleading it was. Facing stiff competition away from home for the 1st time this season, the Suns were completely blown away. In a game that gave them a chance to truly announce their breakout from the ‘easy beats’ of old, the Suns (as they far too often have), proved not up for the chase. Will need to bounce back post-BYE.
12 – ADELAIDE
I really fancy Adelaide (I truly do), but there’s only so much you can do with a team that is 0–2. Falling to Top 8 challengers Geelong in a disappointing homecoming, the Crows have lacked finesse in their first 2 encounters. 2 losses against fellow Top 8 contenders will really sting come the pointy end of the season, but if they can tighten up their forward entries and plug the holes of their leaky backline, expect them to reemerge as a genuine Top 8 Contender.
11 – ST KILDA
In one of the most impressive performances of the 2024 AFL season, St Kilda completely cut Collingwood apart. With elite run from Wanganeen-Milera and co, the Saints dizzled and dazzled aplenty. Yet they still languish in 11th…
They have the tools needed to skyrocket up the ladder, I just question whether this newfound daring gameplay will hold up week to week, especially in the coming month with the loss of wingmen Liam Henry and Mason Wood.
10 – GEELONG
Geelong’s destruction of Adelaide on their home turf has put the league back on notice. With their win headlined by the expertise of their more senior brigade (Hawkins and Stewart), they continue to impressive with their durability. Yet as with Richmond, I need to see more from their younger brigade. I admit, it is difficult for youngsters to break through in the historically old team that is Geelong, but their inexperienced midfield must ascend to the throne or else they’ll be picked apart by the more experienced midfield groups of the leading Finals Contenders.
9 – FREMANTLE
I love my Freo, yet as impressive as their 9-goal 2nd half onslaught was, their abysmal first half was equally as damming. A team that far too often snoozes the alarm and arrives late to the party, the Dockers are running a fine line. If not for a Luke Jackson Masterclass, Freo could very well have been at the back of the pack of a tightly contested finals bunch. Their next 3 games against Adelaide, Carlton, and Port will prove just where they sit in the grand scheme of things.
8 – WESTERN BULLDOGS
If football punters had love-hate relationships with football teams, almost all of them would be with the Western Bulldogs. With their absurd top-end talent, stubborn coach, and little to no consistency, they are the definition of radioactivity. Showed on the weekend that when they’re on, they’re a force to be reckoned with. But for how many weeks can they deliver their best stuff?
7 – COLLINGWOOD
I’m probably being stubborn, but I still can’t envision the Collingwood drop-off. The perfect blend of youth and experience, with the most decorated young (Nick Daicos) and old star (Scott Pendlebury) in the comp, Collingwood has yet to fire in 2024. With a tough match to turn it all around, expect the Pies to drop one more. But after this week, expect their forward and defensive woes to be a thing of the past. as they make a charge towards the finals.
6 – MELBOURNE
A team with Premiership Blood, the Dees have bounced back strong from their first up loss to Sydney. Look a steely and determined group, eager to put the pre-season drug woes and recent finals disappointment behind them. Should remain Top 4 contenders despite a likely loss to Port, will be interesting to see how they hold up potentially without defensive linchpins May and Lever.
5 – PORT ADELAIDE
Port have done their chances of a Top 4 spot no harm. With a dismantling of 2 below-par teams, they remain firmly entrenched in the Top 8. May come to rue their inaccuracy costing them more percentage points, but the Power will hope to continue their early season momentum as they face more stiff opposition. Only then can we truly access their quality. And it all starts this week against Melbourne.
4 – BRISBANE
The BYE couldn’t come quick enough for last season's Grand Finalists. Languishing in the Bottom 8 with a disappointing 0–2 opening, expect pre-season flag favourites Brisbane to rediscover their form in their Grand Final rematch against Collingwood. With the deepest, most talented squad in the AFL, the Lions are still a force to be reckoned with.
3 – CARLTON
The Blues have been one of the stories of the season. After a lung-busting run to the 2023 Preliminary Final, the Blues have had an equally lung-busting start to 2024. With tight wins against Brisbane and Richmond, they look a more mature outfit, capable of building on their abundance of talent. Will be interesting to see if they can continue their winning ways after their early season BYE, and how they can slot in key duo Jacob Weitering and Sam Walsh in the weeks to come.
2 – SYDNEY
For all the growth of the Blues, it is the Swans who lay claim to the title of the biggest improvers of season 2024. Have been in scintillating form to start the year, their off-season acquisitions have slotted in seamlessly. With Isaac Heeney leading the Brownlow playing predominantly midfield to start the season, they will have a dilemma on their hands when 2 key cogs (Luke Parker and Taylor Adams) of their midfield grunt become available. Expect the Swans to be right in the hunt at the pointy end of the season.
1 – GWS
For the 2nd week running, the 2 NSW-based teams remain atop the Power Rankings. Whilst their inner-city neighbours have arguably been more impressive, the Giants have done little wrong in their start to the season. Bonafide contenders for the Premiership, the Giants currently lead the Premiership Pack.
ROUND 3 TIPS
Brisbane v Collingwood
North Melbourne v Carlton
Fremantle v Adelaide
Essendon v St Kilda
GAME OF THE ROUND
Port Adelaide v Melbourne
In a clash of 2 heavyweights, Saturday night presents a mouthwatering encounter. With star power on either side of the park, expect Port to take home the choccys in an early battle for Top 4, potentially Top 2 supremacy. A huge encounter.
Western Bulldogs v West Coast
Richmond v Sydney
Hawthorn v Geelong
Here’s hoping my Round 3 Predictions – especially the Match of the Round fare better than last week. Catch you again post-Easter!
