India in the New Nationalistic Era
Francis Fukuyama published a very good article in the last Financial Times Weekend edition analyzing Trump’s victory in the US elections. He says the liberal moralizing era that has been governing the Western (at least) political thought from the 1950s is over and the era of nationalism is taking over. The liberal bet on globalization fell flat as globalization failed to deliver any improvements to the big layers of the population. The living conditions of the working class actually deteriorated due to corporate outsourcing and the move of the production overseas under blood sucking pressure of global competition. And people are tired of being politically correct (liberal moralizing) and want eventually to call nasty things they suffer from by their real names.
Fukuyama refers to the West but I think both Putin’s Russia and Modi’s India are in the trend. Putin may have discovered this growing trend earlier than the Western leaders and following the time of complete lack of understanding with those (falling) political leaders will now enjoy the first-mover advantages.
In India Modi also uses nationalism to mobilize the nation for a breakthrough. All changes need energy. Re-discovering (or creating anew) the national identity produces a lot of energy. You need a more or less clear ideology to unite the nation, and the question is, the ideology of which class/regional group/caste will become the governing one, a true national ideology? BJP’s traditional power base is urban low-middle and middle class, while rural areas and urban poor stay beyond. Demonetization shows that Modi wants to reach these new strata of voters by using shock therapy: he appointed black money barons («corrupted few») as a common enemy for the whole nation (and everybody is to feel that through the current credit crunch). And the whole nation is to unite against the common enemy under Modi’s leadership for a breakthrough.
India is a huge multi-layer society, and one slogan/enemy will not be sufficient. More to come. Let’s try to guess what comes next. Embezzlement of public funds in the states run by local power clans, which are getting more and more opposed to BJP and if united can challenge BJP at the next elections? Revisiting quotas for low castes? China? I am trying to avoid even mentioning Indian Muslims as a target — part of the Indian identity so far has been that different religious communities can coexist (vs. Pakistani identity where each community should live in their own state). I am sure that this pillar of religious diversity will NOT be removed during the ongoing ideological reconstruction. Just to remind ourselves: Muslims comprise 14% of the population of India, circa 184 million, which makes India the second largest Muslin country in the world after Indonesia.
Nationalism means Realpolitik: pure selfish pragmatism, the only driver approach, no ethics. That’s why Russians so enthusiastically support Trump’s victory — where is the Ukraine on the map? And who cares about the peculiarities of democratic models in faraway countries, while you should have the daily material interests of your own people as the ONLY topic on the agenda of governing your country.
What would Realpolitik mean for India?
In foreign policy the process of re-evaluating of relationships with the key international players has already started: look at the press articles on the outcome of BRICS meeting in Goa recently — there are clear voices claiming that, rhetoric apart, India has no benefits from BRICS union and should pull out. I could not imagine such critical confessions even a year ago. Reciprocity will govern in international relations, chain of deals will be the key instrument.
All key pillars of the current Indian political system and economic policy will be re-thought. The model that has been built since the 1970s will not stay the same. Will regional parties unite and replace Congress as the second national political player? Will Indian Muslims frightened the by rise of Hindu rhetorics form an all-India party? Will middle class decide that playing with nationalism is a dangerous game and they need their own secular party or to revitalize Congress? There are many possible scenarios but all are based on the clear understanding of selfish interests and are targeted at turning a group agenda into the national agenda.
The shift from the center to the regions in the economy has already started and the process is encouraged by the government. Part of this shift hopefully includes making rural life better as India can not afford the continuation of the chaotic urbanization — it’s literally impossible to breathe in the cities, Delhi is not an exception. When urban planning is nearly null you invite people to hell. Rural development is a huge task, but if executed properly can earn Modi a place in the global history. Roads, hospitals, schools, roads again. Less entertainment available but fresh air is the compensation.
The West and the East have a different perception of time: linear vs. circular. Fukuyama, a Westerner, announced the end of the history some time ago: liberal model in politics and regulated capitalism in economics will stay forever. But then comes another circle of the wheel and we have a new combination (Eastern vision on time). And Mr. Modi promises that soon we will live in a new India.
