NFL Week 12 Recap
I nailed the pick of the week but missed on the three upsets in Week 12. The stats are trending in the wrong direction in week 10 and week 11. Let’s see how week 12 ends up.
Correction in week 12 post — BAL @ LAC should have been a LAC Cover +3 not a BUF Cover +3
GB @ DET
Prediction: 20–33
Actual: 29–22
The Packers were able to enact their revenge in Detroit on Thanksgiving. Detroit achieved all of their expected stat lines but the three passing TDs from Jordan Love came as a surprise. Jared Goff’s three lost fumbles gave Green Bay all the extra chances that they would need to win.
Green Bay Packers
Vegas Lines:
✅Score lines 10–28
Jordan Love ✅~230YDs passing and ❌1 or fewer TDs
AJ Dillon expected to be RB1 at ✅around 45 yards
Detroit Lions
Vegas Lines:
✅Score lines 18–36
Jared Goff ✅~255YDs passing and ✅2 TDs or more
Gibbs and Montgomery split the RB workload for ✅115YDs
Model predictions
❌4/4 DET Win
✅3/4 DET Cover -8
✅4/4 Over 47.5
(2/3) in the predictions
WAS @ DAL
Prediction: 21–35
Actual: 10–45
Dak Prescott ties Tony Romo’s Cowboys record with his 10th game with 4 TD passes. Despite Brandon Aubrey missing an extra point for the second game in a row, he extends his NFL record to 22 consecutive field goals as a rookie with a 52-yard kick in the 4th. Sam Howell ran for a touchdown and threw another in the form of a pick six to DaRon Bland —Now standing as a lone record holder with 5 pick six interceptions in a single season.
Washington Commanders
Vegas Lines:
✅Score lines 10–28
Sam Howell ✅~255YDs passing and ✅ 1 or fewer TDs
RBs may accumulate ✅ 82YDs
Dallas Cowboys
Vegas Lines:
❌Score lines 20–40
Dak Prescott ✅~275YDs passing and ✅2 TDs or more
Pollard and Dowdle split the RB workload for ✅90YDs (‼️exactly 90!)
Model predictions
✅ 4/4 DAL Win
✅ 4/4 DAL Cover -13
✅4/4 Over 48.5
(3/3) in the predictions
SF @ SEA
Prediction: 27–17
Actual: 31–13
The Seahawks are unable to contain Christian McCaffrey as he rushes for his 4th 100+yard game including 2 touchdowns. Seattle was unable to rattle Brock Purdy with only 6 QB Hits and 1 sack for a loss of 1 yard — Jordyn Brooks was able to secure an interception for a pick six, the only Seahawks end zone visit.
San Francisco 49ers
Vegas Lines:
✅Score lines 16–34
Brock Purdy ❌~250YDs passing and ✅1 or 2 TDs
McCaffrey rushing ❌ up to 90YDs
Seattle Seahawks
Vegas Lines:
✅Score lines 10–28
Geno Smith ❌~235YDs passing and ✅1 or fewer TDs
Charbonnet around ❌55YDs
Model predictions
✅4/4 SF Win
🟰2/4 SF Cover -7
🟰2/3 Over 44
(1/1) on the predictions with a Push on the O/U
MIA @ NYJ
Prediction: 33–17
Actual: 34–13
Real close with the predicted score! The Jets pass defense held Tua Tagovailoa to just shy of the 250 yard target and racked up a couple sacks and a pair of interceptions including one for a pick six. Their run defense though lived up to their 31st rank allowing over 165 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tim Boyle threw for a touchdown in his first outing but landed on his back 7 times and threw for 2 interceptions also one for a pick six — he fumbled twice as well but recovered by the Jets. Miami allowed just 29 yards on the ground.
Miami Dolphins
Vegas Lines:
✅Score lines 16–34
Tua Tagovailoa ✅~250YDs passing and ❌2 TDs or more
Raheem Mostert for ✅65YDs on the bet lines
New York Jets
Vegas Lines:
✅Score lines 8–26
Tim Boyle First start expected less than ✅~200YDs passing
Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook for ❌60YDs rushing
Model predictions
✅ 4/4 MIA Win
✅ 4/4 MIA Cover -9.5
✅ 4/4 Over 41
(3/3) on the predictions
JAC @ HOU
Prediction: 28–31
Actual: 24–21
Houston was unable to exploit the Jaguars poor pass defense. The lack of run production was to be expected. Defensive injuries for Houston hurt an already struggling pass defense. Trevor Lawrence capitalised with a huge 364 passing yards! The late game sack and the heartbreaking missed 58-yard field goal attempt left Houston just short of a chance for the upset.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Vegas Lines:
✅ Score lines 14–34
Trevor Lawrence ✅ ~255YDs passing and ❌ 2 TDs or more
❌ Travis Etienne Jr for 65YDs rushing, Lawrence for another 15YDs
Houston Texans
Vegas Lines:
✅ Score lines 14–32
CJ Stroud ❌ ~275YDs passing with ✅ 2 TDs or more
Devin Singletary slated for ❌ 45YDs+
Dameon Pierce aimed at❌ 30YDs
Model predictions
❌ 3/4 HOU Win
❌ 3/4 HOU Cover +2
❌ 3/4 Over 48.5
❌ JAC 28–31 HOU
✅ JAC 24–21 HOU (f) ‼️️ Perfect prediction! too bad it was the flipside.
(0/3) on the primary predictions
NE @ NYG
Prediction: 23–10
Actual: 7–10
First of a couple upsets here as the Patriots were somehow favoured in the matchup. Mac Jones’s struggles continue as he throws for only 89 yards in the contest. Tommy DeVito came out the victor but battled through 6 sacks to do it. The Patriots rush defense was able to contain a formidable Saquon Barkley to under 50 yards and well under the projected 70 yards. New England accumulated nearly 150 yards and a touchdown on the ground against the 28th rank run defense but lacked any positivity in the air.
New England Patriots
Vegas Lines:
❌ Score lines 10–28
Mac Jones ❌ ~195YDs passing and maybe 1 TD
Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliot share ✅ 90 YDs rushing
New York Giants
Vegas Lines:
✅ Score lines 6–24
Tommy DeVito ✅ ~175YDs passing with ✅ 1 TD or more
Saquon Barkley slated for ❌ 70YDs
Model predictions
❌ 4/4 NE Win
🟰 2/4 NE Cover -4.5
🟰 2/4 Over 34
❌ NE 23–10 NYG
✅ NE 10–16 NYG (f)
(0/1) on the primary predictions
PIT @ CIN
Prediction: 22–16
Actual: 16–10
Jake Browning looked to be enjoying himself in his first NFL start. He threw for over 225 yards and a touchdown but also an interception and sacked 4 times. What wasn’t working for the Bengals was their rushing offense. Joe Mixon was held to just 16 yards in the game. Both defenses were poorly ranked entering the matchup but the Steelers rush defense showed up in force.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Vegas Lines:
✅ Score lines 10–28
Kenny Pickett ✅ ~195YDs passing and ❌ 1 TD or more
Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren share ✅ 95 YDs rushing
Cincinnati Bengals
Vegas Lines:
✅ Score lines 8–28
Jake Browning ✅ ~205YDs passing with ✅ maybe 1 TD
Joe Mixon slated for ❌65YDs
Model predictions
✅ 4/4 PIT Win
❌ 3/4 CIN Cover +2
🟰 2/4 Over 36.5
✅ PIT 22–16 CIN
❌ PIT 22–23 CIN(f)
(1/2) on the primary predictions
NO @ ATL
Prediction: 23–20
Actual: 15–24
Throwing for over 300 yards and not getting into the end zone even once has to be a testament to how hard the Atlanta Falcons defense worked when it counted. As the underdog fighting for the division top spot, the Falcons were able to get an early lead and keep it throughout the game. Starting with a Jessie Bates 92-yard pick six for the first of three Atlanta touchdowns on the day. The Falcons were able to net another turnover on a Taysom Hill fumble in the third that allowed them to pull away by two possessions just when the Saints were threatening to take the lead — the fumble was forced by Jessie Bates! Tyrann Mathieu tried his best to give the Saints a chance with a pair of interceptions. With Michael Thomas already out on IR for the Saints, Rashid Shaheed left the game in the second quarter and Chris Olave left the game in the 3rd quarter leaving the Saints WR personnel limited. TE Juwan Johnson and WR Lynn Bowden were also shaken up in the game.
New Orleans Saints
Vegas Lines:
✅ Score lines 12–30
Derek Carr ✅ ~240YDs passing and ❌ 1 TD or more
Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill share ✅ 65 YDs rushing
Atlanta Falcons
Vegas Lines:
✅ Score lines 12–30
Desmond Ridder ❌ ~195YDs passing with likely ✅ 1 TD
Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier combine for ✅ 95 YDs
Model predictions
❌ 4/4 NO Win
✅ 3/4 ATL Cover +2
❌ 4/4 Over 41.5
❌ NO 23–20 ATL
✅ NO 17–21 ATL (f)
(1/3) on the primary predictions
CAR @ TEN
Prediction: 20–17
Actual: 10–17
The second of the failed upset predictions as Derrick Henry bowls over the Carolina defense for 2 touchdowns and breaks the 9000 yard career rushing yard mark. Bryce Young threw for nearly 200 yards but was only able to enter the red zone once — Chuba Hubbard finished the drive with a rushing TD. A first half lost fumble from Bryce Young is the only turnover and likely game inflection point as Tennessee quickly turns it into a TD. Now 1–10, the Carolina Panthers chose to part ways with head couach Frank Reich who joined the team this season.
Carolina Panthers
Vegas Lines:
✅ Score lines 8–26
Bryce Young ✅ ~200YDs passing and ❌ 1 TD or more
Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders share ✅ 70 YDs rushing
Tennessee Titans
Vegas Lines:
✅ Score lines 12–28
Will Levis ❌ ~195YDs passing with ✅ 1 or fewer TDs
Derrick Henry ✅ 71 YDs
Tyjae Spears ❌ 21 YDs
Model predictions
❌ 3/4 CAR Win
❌ 3/4 CAR Cover +3.5
🟰 2/4 Over 36.5
❌ CAR 20–17 TEN
✅ CAR 14–21 TEN (f)
(0/2) on the primary predictions
TB @ IND
Prediction: 20–24
Actual: 20–27
Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans connected for a pair of touchdows for the Bucs as Gardner Minshew(1) and Jonathan Taylor(2) marched in for 3 touchdowns for the Colts. A late fumble by Mayfield during a sack ends the 2-minute drill opportunity for a Tampa Bay comeback. Mayfield was injured early in the game which may have contributed to a run heavy offense as Rachaad White goes for 100 yards on the ground in the game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vegas Lines:
✅ Score lines 12–30
Baker Mayfield ❌ ~235YDs passing and ❌ 1 TDs or fewer
Rachaad White for ✅ 50YDs rushing
Defense Rankings:
5th against the Run
31st against the Pass
Indianapolis Colts
Vegas Lines:
✅ Score lines 14–32
Gardner Minshew ✅ ~250YDs passing with ❌ 1 TD likely
Jonathan Taylor aiming at ✅ 75YDs rushing
Model predictions
✅ 4/4 IND Win
✅ 3/4 IND Cover -3
🟰 2/4 Over 45.5
TB 20–24 IND
(2/2) on the primary predictions
CLE @ DEN
Prediction: 20–24
Actual: 12–29
Missing Deshawn Watson and Denzel Ward going into the game, the Browns lost Myles Garret, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Amari Cooper and Jordan Elliot during the game. The Broncos have been able to turn their season around and continue their win streak now at 5 games in a row. While Russell Wilson was unable to rack up yards in the air, the Broncos were able to accumulate 169 yards on the ground with a pair of touchdowns. Denver’s defense also showed up in force with three fumble takeaways. A late game safety of backup PJ Walker put the final 2 points on the Denver score to create a scorigami — A final score that has never been seen in the history of the NFL. This is the second of the season for the NFL and the Broncos as the 70–20 loss against the Dolphins in week 3 was also a scorigami.
Cleveland Browns
Vegas Lines:
✅ Score lines 8–26
Dorian Thompson-Robinson ❌ ~190YDs passing and maybe ✅ 1 TD
Jerome Ford, Kareem Hunt, and Pierre Strong collaborate for ✅ 90 YDs rushing
Denver Broncos
Vegas Lines:
❌ Score lines 10–28
Russell Wilson ❌ ~155YDs passing and maybe ✅ 1 TD
Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, Samaje Perine combine for ✅ 70 YDs rushing
Model predictions
❌ 3/4 CLE Win
❌ 3/4 CLE Cover +2
🟰 2/4 Over 37
❌ CLE 23–17 DEN
✅ CLE 17–19 DEN (f)
(0/3) on the primary predictions
LAR @ ARI
Prediction: 27–20
Actual: 37–14
The one man show in his return, Kyren Williams accounts for nearly 45% of the the Rams total overall yardage with 204 total yards. He also caught a pair of touchdown passes. Tyler Higbee caught 2 touchdowns and Royce Freeman ran for another in the 5 touchdown onslaught. Cooper Kupp played a limited role as he eases back into the offense. Arizona was not able to slow the Rams on the ground. Kyler Murray ran for a touchdown and connected with Greg Dortch for a second.
Los Angeles Rams
Vegas Lines:
❌ Score lines 14–32
Matthew Stafford ❌ ~235YDs passing and ✅ 1 TD or more
Kyren Williams, Royce Freeman, and Darrell Henderson rush for ✅ 105 YDs
Arizona Cardinals
Vegas Lines:
✅ Score lines 14–32
Kyler Murray ✅ ~210YDs passing and maybe ✅ 1 TD
James Conner could be joined by Emari Demercado for ❌ 80 YDs
Model predictions
✅ 4/4 LAR Win
✅ 3/4 LAR Cover -2.5
🟰 2/4 Over 45
✅ LAR 27–20 ARI
❌ LAR 14–21 ARI (f)
(2/2) on the primary predictions
KC @ LV
Prediction: 30–17
Actual: 31–17 ‼️
Travis Kelce helped shoulder the load with two Wide Receivers sidelined in the matchup. Rashee Rice posts 107 yards and a TD. Isaiah Pacheco accumulates 89 total yards and a pair of rushing touchdowns. The Raiders achieved all of their targets as Aidan O’Connell throws nearly 250 yards, a touchdown, no interceptions or fumbles, and only a single sack. Josh Jacobs also rushes beyond his 65 yard target and churns out 110 yards on the ground with a touchdown. He nearly got all 65 yards in a single rush in the second quarter for a TD! The Vegas defense was outmatched in this one.
Kansas City Chiefs
Vegas Lines:
✅ Score lines 18–36
Patrick Mahomes ✅ ~270YDs passing and ✅ 2 or more TDs
Isaiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire pair up for ❌ 85 YDs
Las Vegas Raiders
Vegas Lines:
✅ Score lines 8–26
Aidan O’Connell ✅ ~200YDs passing and maybe ✅ 1 TD
Josh Jacobs slated for ✅ 65 YDs rushing
Model predictions
✅ 4/4 KC Win
✅ 4/4 KC Cover -9
✅ 4/4 Over 43
✅ KC 30–17 LV (Off by 1!)
(3/3) on the primary predictions
BUF @ PHI
Prediction: 27–28
Actual: 34–37 ️
A close one as expected! Both teams exceed their projected ceiling. Josh Allen sliced his way through the league’s 1st ranked rush defense for 81 yards — James Cook and Latavius Murry put up another 73 yards. This one could have gone either way and was Buffalo won the posession and overall yardage game. Jalen Hurts being able to overcome a lost fumble in the second quarter, 10 point halftime deficit, Booing home crows, lost OT toss… to run in the game winning touchdown untouched in the rain is something of a miracle! His 5th scoring play of the day as he had 3 passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown in regulation.
Buffalo Bills
Vegas Lines:
❌ Score lines 14–32
Josh Allen ✅ ~260YDs passing and ✅ 2 or more TDs
James Cook, Josh Allen, Latavius Murray share ✅ 95 YDs
Philadelphia Eagles
Vegas Lines:
✅ Score lines 18–34
Jalen Hurts ❌ ~250YDs passing and ✅1 or more TDs
Jalen Hurts, D’Andre Swift, Kenneth Gainwell combine for ✅ 115 YDs
Model predictions
🟰 2/4 PHI Win
🟰 3/4 BUF Cover +3
✅ 3/4 Over 49
✅ BUF 27–28 PHI
❌ BUF 32–30 PHI (f)
(1/1) in the primary predictions
BAL @ LAC
Prediction: 28–17
Actual: 20–10 ️
A low scoring game for the Ravens going against the league’s worst pass defense. Zay Flowers was able to pick up a pair of touchdowns, running one in for 37 yards late in the 4th quarter to make it a two posession game. The Ravens defense was also a large part of the game with 3 fumble recoveries and an interception. Lamar Jackson joined the 5000 yard rushing club and is only 1 of 4 quarterbacks to surpass the mark.
Baltimore Ravens
Vegas Lines:
✅ Score lines 16–34
Lamar Jackson ❌ ~240YDs passing and ✅ 1 or more TDs
Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards, Keaton Mitchell post ✅ 130 YDs rushing
Injuries:
Mark Andrews (TE) lands on IR on Offense
Malik Harrison (LB) doubtful, Trenton Simpson (LB) ruled out
Mark Andrews’s injury is season ending
Damarion Williams (CB) is designated to return from IR
Defense Rankings:
13th against the Run
3rd against the Pass
Los Angeles Chargers
Vegas Lines:
❌ Score lines 12–30
Justin Herbert ❌ ~245YDs passing and ✅ 1 or fewer TDs
Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley combine for ❌ 60 YDs rushing
Injuries:
Joey Bosa (LB) and Tanner Muse (LB) head to IR on Defense
Defense Rankings:
12th against the Run
32nd against the Pass
Model predictions
✅ 4/4 BAL Win
❌ 4/4 LAC Cover +3
❌ 3/4 Over 48.5
✅ BAL 28–17 LAC
(1/3) on the primary predictions
CHI @ MIN
Prediction: 20–24
Actual: 12–10 ️
The Vikings hot streak came to an end in Denver last week and they fail to win as the favourites at home in Minnesota this week. Chicago’s ranked 2nd rush defense keeps Joshua Dobbs and Ty Chandler in check but Alexander Mattison was able to exceed the expected 45 yards. Justin Fields lost a pair of fumbles as the Bears fail to find the end zone relying on the defense’s 4 interceptions and Cairo Santos’s 4 field goals to win this game.
Chicago Bears
Vegas Lines:
✅ Score lines 12–30
Justin Fields ✅ ~195YDs passing and ✅ 1 or fewer TDs
Justin Fields ✅ 55 yards
Khalil Herbert ❌ 50 yards
Roschon Johnson ✅ 20 yards
Minnesota Vikings
Vegas Lines:
❌ Score lines 16–32
Joshua Dobbs ❌ ~240YDs passing and ✅ 1TD
Alexander Mattison✅ 45 yards
Joshua Dobbs, Ty Chandler rush for ❌ 65YDs
Model predictions
❌ 4/4 MIN Win
🟰 2/4 MIN Cover -3
❌ 3/4 Over 43
❌ CHI 20–24 MIN
(0/2) on the primary predictions
Another slight skid on the Wins column but both Spead and O/U raise the average!
Week:
Wins — 8/15 (53%)
Spread — 7/12 (58%)
O/U — 5/9 (56%)
Running Total:
Wins — 42/69 (61%) 📉
Spread — 29/63 (46%) 📈
O/U — 30/58 (52%) 📈
Disclaimer: Most of the above is a personal opinion and carries no guarantee. As a human, I make mistakes. In my error, I owe nothing. The team names and trademarks utilized in the narrative above do not imply nor aim to imply any association with their respective owners. AI was used to generate the images in these posts but not used for any research or content generation.
