NFL Week 13
A few close calls this week! Got the Thursday Night Football pick though so let’s keep up the momentum. Changing the format once again to try and make the information a bit more consumable.
Pick of the week: Miami Dolphins
ARI @ PIT
Opponents are averaging just 79 yards on the ground against the Pittsburgh defense in recent games. The Rams held Arizona to just 73 on the ground in Arizona. Look for Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris to put up big numbers for Pittsburgh against a Cardinals team that struggles against the run. The Cardinals may be able to cover if they are able to play beyond their recent abilities.
Predictions
PIT Win
Over 41
ARI 14–32 PIT
ARI 17–14 PIT (f)
OVER/UNDER 41
Arizona Cardinals (3.4, +6.5) | Pittsburgh Steelers (1.33, -6.5)
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Vegas Lines - | Vegas Lines -
Team Score 8-26 | Team Score 14-32
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Rankings - | Rankings -
29th Offensive Passing | 28th Offensive Passing
10th Offensive Rushing | 14th Offensive Rushing
15th Defensive Passing | 24th Defensive Passing
30th Defensive Rushing | 21st Defensive RushingDET @ NO
The Wide Receiver room is running a bit thin in New Orleans as Michael Thomas is on IR, Rashid Shaheed is ruled out, Chris Olave marked questionable with a concussion. The Saints pass defense may be strong enough to put the brakes on the 3rd overall passing offense from Detroit. They can’t over index on the pass though as the Lions are just as lethal on the ground.
Predictions
DET Win
DET Cover -4
DET 28–19 NO
OVER/UNDER 47
Detroit Lions (1.48, -4) | New Orleans Saints (2.75, +4)
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Vegas Lines - | Vegas Lines -
Team Score 16-34 | Team Score 12-30
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Rankings - | Rankings -
3rd Offensive Passing | 11th Offensive Passing
6th Offensive Rushing | 19th Offensive Rushing
20th Defensive Passing | 7th Defensive Passing
5th Defensive Rushing | 23rd Defensive RushingATL @ NYJ
We could see a repeat performance from Bijan Robinson as the Falcons face the 31st ranked defense in New York. The Jets pass defense has held its own this season and should limit Ridder’s production. If Breece Hall is able to get the Jets moving on offense this one could be closer enough to warrant a 2 point line. The Jets have found a way to win against the Bills and Eagles this season.
Predictions
ATL Win
ATL Cover -2
Under 33.5
ATL 20–12 NYJ
OVER/UNDER 33.5
Atlanta Falcons (1.77, -2) | New York Jets (2.1, +2)
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Vegas Lines - | Vegas Lines -
Team Score 10-28 | Team Score 8-26
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Rankings - | Rankings -
21st Offensive Passing | 31st Offensive Passing
4th Offensive Rushing | 27th Offensive Rushing
10th Defensive Passing | 6th Defensive Passing
16th Defensive Rushing | 31st Defensive RushingMIA @ WAS
Miami enters the weekend ranked 1st in passing yards and second in rushing. The rush ranking is mostly due to an explosive De’Von Achane who has been inactive for more games than he’s played this year. Achane will be suited up this week. Coach Rivera will have to decide how to defend against Achane and the constant threat of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle since firing defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio. Washington’s defense has allowed the most passing yards to opponents in the last three games.
Predictions
MIA Win
MIA Cover -9
Over 49.5
MIA 33–24 WAS
OVER/UNDER 49.5
Miami Dolphins (1.22, -9) | Washington Commanders (4.5, +9)
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Vegas Lines - | Vegas Lines -
Team Score 20-38 | Team Score 12-30
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Rankings - | Rankings -
1st Offensive Passing | 9th Offensive Passing
2nd Offensive Rushing | 25th Offensive Rushing
11th Defensive Passing | 30th Defensive Passing
6th Defensive Rushing | 17th Defensive RushingDEN @ HOU
Houston will be bringing their high powered passing offense without their TE Dalton Schultz this weekend. Bevin Jordan will likely see additional workload in Schultz absence. Denver has been winning games with their defensive takeaways. We should see an uptick in offensive pass production from the Broncos in this matchup as Houston has been struggling to defend the pass.
Predictions
HOU Win
HOU Cover -3.5
DEN 25–28 HOU
DEN 22–16 HOU (f)
OVER/UNDER 47.5
Denver Broncos (2.4, +3.5) | Houston Texans (1.59, -3.5)
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Vegas Lines - | Vegas Lines -
Team Score 12-30 | Team Score 16-34
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Rankings - | Rankings -
25th Offensive Passing | 2nd Offensive Passing
13th Offensive Rushing | 24th Offensive Rushing
22nd Defensive Passing | 27th Defensive Passing
32nd Defensive Rushing | 8th Defensive RushingIND @ TEN
This is about as evenly matched as they come! The only edge could be that running back Jonathan Taylor will be in street clothes this weekend as he has been ruled out. Zack Moss will shoulder the increased workload. Cornerback Juju Brents will also be unavailable for Indy. Derrick Henry has been a workhorse for the Titans and the Colts rush defense leaves a bit to be desired.
Predictions
IND Win
IND Cover -1
IND 22–18 TEN
IND 21–22 TEN (f)
OVER/UNDER 42
Indianapolis Colts (1.87, -1) | Tennessee Titans (1.95, +1)
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Vegas Lines - | Vegas Lines -
Team Score 14-30 | Team Score 12-30
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Rankings - | Rankings -
18th Offensive Passing | 26th Offensive Passing
11th Offensive Rushing | 21st Offensive Rushing
17th Defensive Passing | 19th Defensive Passing
26th Defensive Rushing | 15th Defensive RushingLAC @ NE
Bailey Zappe will be the starter for New England as they continue to struggle through the season. Their defense has held teams to just 10 points in each of their last two games but the offense has been unable to pull their weight — Only reaching 20 points in 2 games so far this season. If Zappe is able to get the offense going, it will be against the Chargers as their pass defense ranks lowest in the league. Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliot could both see decent games as well with the recent struggles the Chargers have had against the run. Models all point to LA here but a win from NE wouldn’t be a surprise.
Predictions
LAC Win
Under 39.5
LAC 25–15 NE
LAC 14–19 NE (f)
OVER/UNDER 39.5
Los Angeles Chargers (1.42, -5) | New England Patriots (2.9, +5)
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Vegas Lines - | Vegas Lines -
Team Score 14-32 | Team Score 10-28
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Rankings - | Rankings -
10th Offensive Passing | 23rd Offensive Passing
20th Offensive Rushing | 23rd Offensive Rushing
32nd Defensive Passing | 16th Defensive Passing
14th Defensive Rushing | 7th Defensive RushingCAR @ TB
Tampa Bay is another team that struggles against the pass. This could allow Bryce Young a chance to boost some stats as the Panthers currently sit at the bottom of the offensive passing ranks. Carolina fired head coach Frank Reich, Tabor will serve as interim head coach. Tampa Bay will be hoping to win this division game to stay in the hunt.
Predictions
TB Wins
CAR 15–21 TB
CAR 19–12 TB (f)
OVER/UNDER 36.5
Carolina Panthers (2.5, +3.5) | Tampa Bay Bucaneers (1.56, -3.5)
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Vegas Lines - | Vegas Lines -
Team Score 8-26 | Team Score 12-30
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Rankings - | Rankings -
30th Offensive Passing | 16th Offensive Passing
28th Offensive Rushing | 31st Offensive Rushing
4th Defensive Passing | 31st Defensive Passing
24th Defensive Rushing | 9th Defensive RushingSF @ PHI
The Eagles have won 10 games but only have 2 by more than one possession. Every game has been a battle and Jalen Hurts continues to find ways to manufacture a win — In OT last weekend when they hosted the Bills. The 49ers have been up then down this season. They have lost three games and all three when they were without Deebo Samuel. When they have all their offensive dynamics, they are difficult to defend. The Eagles run defense will be their hardest test of the year on the ground this year. Philadelphia will see if they can stop the seemingly unstoppable Christian McCaffrey. San Francisco will need to contain an elusive Hurts who has rushed for 2 touchdowns in each of the last two games. A clash of titans here.
Predictions
SF Win
SF Cover -3
Over 48
OVER/UNDER 48
San Francisco 49ers (1.63, -3) | Philadelphia Eagles (2.35, +3)
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Vegas Lines - | Vegas Lines -
Team Score 14-34 | Team Score 14-32
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Rankings - | Rankings -
8th Offensive Passing | 14th Offensive Passing
7th Offensive Rushing | 8th Offensive Rushing
12th Defensive Passing | 29th Defensive Passing
2nd Defensive Rushing | 3rd Defensive RushingCLE @ LAR
The Browns will start their 4th different quarterback this week after signing Joe Flacco. The veteran quarterback will start over a struggling PJ Walker as Dorian Thompson-Robinson is out with a concussion. Cornerback Denzel Ward will also be unavailable for the game. There were no stat lines available for Joe Flacco so a lot of the predictions will be averages. If Flacco is able to put up 200 yards and a TD or two, it could be enough as the Browns pass defense is best in the league and should be able to keep the game close. A Browns win here wouldn’t surprise.
Prediction
LAR Win
CLE Covers +4
CLE 20–22 LAR
CLE 21–20 LAR (f)
OVER/UNDER 40.5
Cleveland Browns (2.75, +4) | Los Angeles Rams (1.48, -4)
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Vegas Lines - | Vegas Lines -
Team Score 8-26 | Team Score 12-30
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Rankings - | Rankings -
27th Offensive Passing | 15th Offensive Passing
3rd Offensive Rushing | 15th Offensive Rushing
1st Defensive Passing | 14th Defensive Passing
12th Defensive Rushing | 18th Defensive RushingKC @ GB
The Packers have won back to back upsets and now host the Chiefs at home. They toppled the division leading Lions in Detroit on Thanksgiving. That shows that Green Bay can handle the pressure. It will be a cold game in Green Bay and may feature snow. The Packers passing stats have improved as of recent but anything can happen in the wet snowy conditions.
Predictions
KC Win
KC Cover -6
Over 42.5
KC 28–20 GB
KC 16–20 GB (f)
OVER/UNDER 42.5
Kansas City Chiefs (1.4, -6) | Green Bay Packers (3, +6)
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Vegas Lines - | Vegas Lines -
Team Score 16-32 | Team Score 10-26
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Rankings - | Rankings -
7th Offensive Passing | 17th Offensive Passing
17th Offensive Rushing | 22nd Offensive Rushing
3rd Defensive Passing | 9th Defensive Passing
19th Defensive Rushing | 27th Defensive RushingCIN @ JAC
Monday Night Football will showcase the Jacksonville Jaguars for the first time in 12 years. The Jaguars have only lost one game since week 3 and look to capitalise on the spot light game at home to start another win streak. They are heavily favourited in the matchup with the Bengals star quarterback sidelined for the rest of the season. The Bengals will need more than 12 yards out of Joe Mixon in the contest to remain competitive. Jacksonville is ranked 4th in run defense on the season though they have been slipping as of late. Cincinnati defense will need to have the best game of the season and need to do so without cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt.
Predictions
JAC Wins
Over 39
CIN 18–25 JAC
OVER/UNDER 39
Cincinnati Bengals (4.5, +9.5) | Jacksonville Jaguars (1.22, -9.5)
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Vegas Lines - | Vegas Lines -
Team Score 6-24 | Team Score 16-34
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Rankings - | Rankings -
19th Offensive Passing | 12th Offensive Passing
32nd Offensive Rushing | 18th Offensive Rushing
26th Defensive Passing | 28th Defensive Passing
29th Defensive Rushing | 4th Defensive RushingDisclaimer: Most of the above is a personal opinion and carries no guarantee. As a human, I make mistakes. In my error, I owe nothing. The team names and trademarks utilized in the narrative above do not imply nor aim to imply any association with their respective owners. AI was used to generate the images in these posts but not used for any research or content generation.
