NFL Week 13 Recap

Consolidating the recaps this week as I have been too busy lately to write multiple articles. It was a big week though! I’m excited with the bounce back in the stats.

SEA @ DAL

Thursday Night Football

The Seahawks made a statement coming out the gate holding Dallas to just a field goal after being as close as the 2 yard line. They were not going to go down without a fight. And fight they did! Geno Smith finds DK Metcalf for a touchdown to go ahead by one at the end of the first half. Leading all the way into the 4th quarter. It wasn’t enough to keep the Cowboys at bay as they complete the comeback with a go ahead touchdown from Prescott to Ferguson and a 2 point conversion after they hold Seattle on 4th down. The Dallas defense proceeded to hold Seattle on 4th down twice more in the quarter for a total of 3 turnover on downs.

✅ DAL Win
❌ DAL Cover -9.5
✅ Over 47.5

ARI @ PIT

The Cardinals complete the upset in Pittsburgh with just 282 total yards of offense. James Conner steals the show with over 100 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren both go above 50 yards but fail to find the endzone. Kenny Pickett’s injury in the 2nd quarter left Trubisky to attempt the unsuccessful comeback after the half.

❌ PIT Win
❌ Over 41

DET @ NO

New Orleans was in a tight spot at the receiver position leading up to the game but was able to put together nearly 250 passing yards in the game. Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill both went over 50 yards and had 3 touchdowns between them (2,1 respectively). There just wasn’t enough defense to stop the Lions. Sam LaPorta racked up 140 yards in the air and a touchdown.

✅ DET Win
✅ DET Cover -4

ATL @ NYJ

The Jets defense stepped up and put a damper on the Atlanta offense. Holding the Falcons to just 194 total offensive yards after Bijan Robinson rushed for over 90 yards in each of the two previous games. They even tackled Robinson in the endzone for a safety. The New York offense just was not able to put up enough points to challenge. Tim Boyle got the start before Siemian took over in the 4th quarter following Boyle’s interception. Neither QB did well in the contest and the Jets QB woes continue.

✅ ATL Win
✅ ATL Cover -2
✅ Under 33.5

MIA @ WAS

Miami did what Miami does posting 45 points, 285 passing yards and 123 yards on the ground. Achane survived the game and accumulated 73 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Tua also found Tyreek Hill for a pair of touchdowns. Mostert rushed for a touchdown just before the half as well. Sam Howell was able to rush for a pair of touchdowns for the Commanders but barely threw over 125 yards — 107 total yards when sacks are subtracted. Howell threw for a pick six as Andrew Van Ginkel gets his first of the year.

✅ MIA Win
✅ MIA Cover -9
✅ Over 49.5

DEN @ HOU

CJ Stroud and Nico Collins paired up for 191 yards in the air and a touchdown. This did not give the Texans as big of an advantage as they would have like though as the game came down to a final drive by Denver. Wilson threw for his third interception on 3rd & Goal to seal the loss.

✅ HOU Win
✅ HOU Cover -3.5

IND @ TEN

The Colts and Texans did not disappoint as the lead changed 4 times in the match. Indianapolis comes out on top after trailing through most of the game. It wasn’t until a blocked punt touchdown where the Colts took the lead; during the 2 point conversion attempt, Minshew was intercepted and the defense ran back the 2 point attempt! Derrick Henry rushed over 100 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the loss.

✅ IND Win
✅ IND Cover -1

LAC @ NE

An abysmal offensive performance for both teams. Ezekiel Elliot led the rushing stats with just 52 yards while DeVante Parker led receiving stats with just 64. Rhamondre Stevenson was injured in the 1st quarter during a lost fumble. A top stat was 7 out of 8 punts from JK Scott on the Chargers were inside the 20 yard line.

✅ LAC Win
✅ Under 39.5

CAR @ TB

Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers move to 1–11 with a loss on the road in Tampa Bay. While generally a close game, and Carolina even leading for a while, this one was all Bucs on the win probability chart throughout the game. Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans connect for 162 yard including a 75-yard touchdown. Rachaad White does Rachaad White things rushing 20 times for 84 yards and a touchdown. Chris Godwin also found his way into the endzone with a rush. Young with an interception and 4 sacks ends up sub 20 on the QBR; though Mayfield only reached 25.

✅ TB Wins

SF @ PHI

San Francisco was out to make it known that this was not going to be a close game as most predicted. Going to Philly and holding the Eagles to just 19 points is quite the feat. Brock Purdy threw for over 300 while Hurts came in just under. The difference being the 4 touchdowns Purdy was able to complete in the air; Hurts found just one receiver in the endzone. A total of 6 touchdowns for the 49ers and they did not let up in the end as their last touchdown took just 14 seconds off the game clock after the failed onside kick.

✅ SF Win
✅ SF Cover -3
✅ Over 48

CLE @ LAR

Joe Flacco came out the gate shooting and gets his first touchdown since September 2022; ironically against the Browns. It is hard to beat a Rams team that goes for just under 400 yards and has no turnovers. Kyren Williams churned out 88 and touchdown while Puka Nacua rushed for 34 yards as well as playing his primary role as WR for 105 yards and another touchdown.

✅ LAR Win
❌ CLE Covers +4

KC @ GB

The upset of the week goes to Green Bay as they are able to down the goliath Kansas City Chiefs. Jordan Love was able to put points on the board against the Chiefs defense throwing for 3 touchdowns and no interceptions. Christian Watson was Love’s favourite target in the match with 9 targets for 71 yards and 2 touchdowns. Isaiah Pacheco rushed for 110 yards with an average of 6.1 per carry and a touchdown — there just wasn’t much else on the offensive side for Kansas City. The wild last possession for Kansas City showed a familiar scene… but interestingly this was in the middle of a play and the opposite team hitching a ride.

❌ KC Win
❌ KC Cover -6
✅ Over 42.5

CIN @ JAC

Jake Browning makes his second start a memorable one with the upset victory over Jacksonville. He threw for over 350 yards, a touchdown, and ran one in himself in the 4th quarter. Ja’Marr Chase stands out per usual with 149 yards and on the receiving end of the lone Browning touchdown. Joe Mixon was able to find the endzone twice and posted 68 yards. Trevor Lawrence was injured in the game but not before posting 258 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a rushing touchdown himself. The missed field goal and only a field goal from Beathard’s last drive in regulation led to OT. A failed first drive by Beathard meant Browning only had to get into field goal territory for the win and that’s what they did — 42 yard in 12 plays to set up the 48-yard McPherson game winner. The nail biter ending for the Bengals as McPherson had missed a field goal earlier in the first quarter.

❌ JAC Wins
✅ Over 39

What a relief seeing all the green ticks! After the recent downward slide it is nice to see an uptick in the percentages across the board this week!

Week:
Wins —10/13 (77%)
Spread — 6/9 (67%)
O/U — 6/7 (86%)

Running Total:
Wins — 52/82 (63%) 📈
Spread — 35/72 (49%) 📈
O/U — 36/65 (55%) 📈

Disclaimer: Most of the above is a personal opinion and carries no guarantee. As a human, I make mistakes. In my error, I owe nothing. The team names and trademarks utilized in the narrative above do not imply nor aim to imply any association with their respective owners. AI was used to generate the images in these posts but not used for any research or content generation.