NFL Week 9 Recap
Week 9 comes to a close and we’ll recap the selections to see how accurate they were; TNF recap here. Home teams were heavily favored this week …
MIA @ KC
Prediction: 35–34
Actual: 14–21
A rough start for the early morning game as a couple Miami miscues leave KC with the win in Frankfurt. Both Mahomes and Tagovailoa came in under their passing yard projections by about 30–35%. An uncharacteristic Tyreek Hill fumble and a defensive lateral allows KC to gain the advantage with a TD. The TD on defense is the decider and a fumble on the last snap of the game for Miami within striking distance seals the win for the Chiefs. Flipside would get the win and spread but miss the Over. KC (Win), (Cover), and the total is (Under) — 0/3 here.
TB @ HOU
Prediction: 25–26
Actual: 37–39
The game in Houston was one of the more exciting games to watch for the day. There were 5 lead changes and two came in the last minute of the game! Houston losing their place kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn at the half left them with Dare Ogunbowale, RB4, kicking off and in the 4th quarter kicking a field goal that ended up contributing to the win by putting them up by 3 with 8:45 left in the game. Baker Mayfield wasn’t going to go down without a fight. After a punt from each team, TB finds themselves at on their own 39 with 4:27 to go. Overcoming multiple penalties and scrambling for 5 on 4th and 2, Mayfield finds Cade Otton in the endzone for the go ahead score. Texans are left with only 46 seconds on the clock down by 4. Enter CJ Stroud who decides to break the single-game passing record by throwing for 65 yards on this final drive! Taking the Texans all the way back down the field and over the goal line for what ends up being the game winning goal. Houston Wins, TB Covers, Over — 3/3 to avoid a nil streak!
SEA @ BAL
Prediction: 24–28
Actual: 3–37
The Seahawks fail to find the endzone during their road appearance in Baltimore. Keaton Mitchell, RB4, made his first stat of the day tackling Seattle’s Dee Eskridge while on special teams in the 2nd. He gets his first carry of the season 5 minutes later for 11 yards. A couple more carries, then Mitchell breaks free for a 40 yard touchdown run at the end of the third. Not done there though as he goes for 60 yards on his last run of the day in the 4th! He has been waiting for his chance and was not going to disappoint ending the day with 138 yards! Odell Beckham Jr also finds the endzone in the game and finally gets his first TD as a Raven and first TD since Super Bowl 56 last year; He also lost his first fumble as a Raven. One sided Ravens Win, (Covers), and the total remained (Under) — 1/3 here.
ARI @ CLE
Prediction: 18–27
Actual: 0–27
Clayton Tune burns during his trial by fire. Netting only 17 passing yards and another 28 on the ground — leading the team in rushing yards. Two interceptions and 7 sacks makes for a bad day at the office. Defensively the Cardinals were not much better allowing Deshaun Watson to throw for 2 TDs and 219 yards. The pick of the week does not disappoint as Cleveland Wins, (Covers), and total was (Under) — 1/3 for this game.
LAR @ GB
Prediction: 24–26
Actual: 3–20
Sticking with the home team win streak, GB holds the Rams to just a single field goal. A Stafford-less Rams team is unable to collect 200 total yards in this one. Rypien completes only 46% of his passes, throws his first interception, fumbles twice, loses one of them, and takes a sack. Only slightly better than Tune’s struggles. GB Wins, (Covers), and (Under) 38–1/3 in this matchup.
WAS @ NE
Prediction: 27–27
Actual: 20–17
A hard fought game in New England ends with Washington breaking up the home team win streak on the day. Sam Howell running for first down on 3rd and 23, Rhamondre Stevenson with a 64-yard TD run, Howell to Dotson for a 33-yard TD to tie it up. It was as competitive as predicted. The Commanders defense coming up with a down field tip and interception was the only mistake Mac Jones made on the day. But it comes with 30 seconds left, trailing by three and trying to take the Patriots into field goal territory for an attempt to tie. Washington takes the upset Win, Covers, and (Under) — 1/2 with the cover here.
CHI @ NO
Prediction: 23–32
Actual: 17–24
The Saints takeaway defense shows up in full force at home intercepting Tyson Bagent 3 times, forcing 3 fumbles and recovering 2 of them. Take away 5 turnovers and the Bears could have possibly won this one. On offense Taysom Hill showcases his multi-talent abilities rushing for 52 yards, catching a TD, and throwing a TD in the contest. Derek Carr connects with Chris Olave for the other Saints TD on the day. Bagent connects with Cole Kmet for a pair of TDs but the 5 turnovers are too much to recover from. Saints Win, Bears Cover, Push the OU at 41–2/2 on this one.
MIN @ ATL
Prediction: 21–26
Actual: 31–28
Jaren Hall makes his starting debut for Minnesota on the road… and then quickly finds himself in the medical tent with a couple minutes left on the clock in the 1st quarter. He ends up exiting the game for good (concussion) and the newly transplanted Joshua Dobbs takes control of an offense he doesn’t know — relating it to a French exam when you studied Spanish all year on social media. But what he does know is that he wasn’t going to let this second chance pass him by. Dobbs led the team rushing for 66 yards and a TD. He also threw for 2 more TDs. The second of which came as part of a two minute drill that regains Minnesota the lead in the 4th quarter and caps off the upset win in Atlanta. Flipside for this one would have been 2/3 getting the win and spread right but still calculating under gets the miss. Vikings (Win), (Cover), well (Over) — 0/3 and the third strikeout of the week.
IND @ CAR
Prediction: 28–26
Actual: 27–13
Kenny Moore may have gotten a copy of Carolina’s new offence to study as he pick up a pair of pick-6s in the game! This alone would have been enough to win the game against the struggling Panthers. Coming off their first win of the season last week against the Texans, Carolina’s Bryce Young couldn’t connect with receivers on his team for any meaningful production except TE Hayden hurst. Three interceptions and 4 sacks, including one to end the game, are really hard to recover from. Colts Win, Cover, (Under) 44 — 2/3
DAL @ PHI
Prediction: 31–31
Actual: 23–28
Cowboys took the lead into the half but did not show up in the 3rd quarter. Prescott impressed with 374 yards and 3 TDs but the Eagles win the field position game and are able to score a fourth, deciding, TD while traveling 100 total yards less than the Dallas in the matchup. Dallas with one more chance throws up a prayer that comes up short as a Precott to Lamb connection at the end of the game ends up with a lost fumble short of the goal line. Eagles Win, (Cover), Over 47–1/2
NYG @ LV
Prediction: 16–19
Actual: 6–30
Fresh off the injury report Daniel Jones tests out his knee against Max Crosby and the Raiders. Unfortunately, the turf won as a non-contact injury sends Jones into IR for the rest of the season with a torn ACL. Aidan O’Connell does his job moving the offense down the field with the majority of his pass completions between 10–20 yards but also threw a 50-yard pass to Tre Tucker to set up a 1st and goal in the 2nd quarter that ending with a Josh Jacob TD run. Aidan O’Connell’s 3rd showing is mediocre as Josh Jacobs grinds out just under 100 yards and 2 TDs to get the win at home. Raiders Win, Cover, Under — 3/3
BUF @ CIN
Prediction: 35–38
Actual: 18–24
A hard fought game on both sides but the offensive production from the Bengals in the first half was too much for Josh Allen and the Bills to catch up to. With Ja’Marr Chase getting all the attention from the Buffalo defense, Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins connect for over 100 yards. Burrow finishes the home game with just under 350 yards and a pair of TDs. Bengals Win, Cover, Over — 3/3
LAC @ NYJ
Prediction: 29–26
Actual: 27–6
Austin Ekeler shows up in form collecting a pair of touchdowns while Keenan Allen continues to control the air. The two account for 147 of LAs 186 total yards. NY was able to accumulate 327 positive yards but after accounting for 57 negative yards across 8 sacks and 3 lost fumbles they were never really in the game. The Derius Davis punt return for a touchdown after the Jets first possession won the game within the first two minutes of the contest. Chargers Win, (Cover), (Under) – 1/3
The week of home field advantage comes to an end with a visitor win in New York but a total of 10 home team wins across the 14 games. The Giants will attempt to recover from Daniel Jones season ending injury while Tyrod Taylor is also on IR for 3 more games minimum. Jaren Hall is in concussion protocol but Dobbs looks quite capable of filling the Kurt Cousins’s sized shoes in Minnesota — thankfully so as Cam Akers may also be out for an extended period with his second Achilles tendon injury; previous was in 2021. Arizona Cardinals and LA Rams are hoping their star quarterbacks will return next week after dismal showings from their stand-ins. Aaron Rodgers was practicing during warmups? Hurts’s knee hurts but bye week could give him the time needed to recover; will look into this one before week 11 kicks off. Dallas Goedert though looks destined for IR with a fractured forearm.
And the results are…
Week:
Wins — 9/12 (75%) ‼️
Spread — 6/14 (43%)
O/U — 4/13 (31%) 😰 looks like I’ll be refactoring this calculation next week!
Running total:
Wins — 19/27 (70%)📈
Spread — 10/24 (42%)📈
O/U — 12/15 (48%) 📉
Disclaimer: Most of the above is a personal opinion and carries no guarantee. As a human, I make mistakes. In my error, I owe nothing. The team names and trademarks utilized in the narrative above do not imply nor aim to imply any association with their respective owners. AI was used to generate the images in these posts but not used for any research or content generation.
