NFL Week 10 Recap

Josh
Josh Picks Football
7 min readNov 19, 2023

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So many close games in Week 10! An astonishing 6 of the 14 games end with last play Game winning field goals! Also surprising is that 11 of the week’s games end in a one score difference. Wow. I forecasted a few of the games to go either way and the games did not disappoint. Instead of taking the easy way of “too close to call” I chose a side for every game this week and we’ll see how much of a hit to the stats I took as a result!

CAR @ CHI
Prediction: 16–18
Actual: 13–16

Thursday Night Football game recap here. Chicago Win, Carolina Covers, and well Under the 38 mark — (3/3)

IND @ NE (Frankfurt)
Prediction: 23–19
Actual: 10–6

No real surprises with the low score here as New England sits at the bottom of the points production ranks while also having a competitive defense. Indianapolis targeted Josh Downs only 3 times and with 2 catches for 40 yards. Rhamondre Stevenson churned out 88 yards over 20 carries for NE. Mac Jones wasn’t completely horrible on the stat sheet with a 79.2 quarterback rating but both Jones and Zappe threw for interceptions in the 4th quarter of the game which never helps; Jones was benched after his interception while the Patriots were still in contention down 10–6. Colts Win, Cover, and Under 42.5–(3/3)

NO @ MIN
Prediction: 23–17
Actual: 19–27

Joshua Dobbs does it again! Outscoring New Orleans 24–3 in the first half the deficit was too much for Carr/Winston to overcome. Carr exited the game with an injury and concussion following a high-low tackle in the 3rd. Jameis Winston threw for 2 touchdowns to close the gap but the 2 interceptions left the Saints with abrupt ends to back to back chances to tie the game up in the 4th quarter. Michael Thomas was in the game but only saw 2 targets during the first drive and nothing else the rest of the game. TJ Hockenson and Dobbs connected for the lone passing touchdown for the Vikings and 134 of exactly half of Minnesota’s overall passing yards. Dobbs also ran in for another TD this week. Minnesota (Win), (Cover), and (Over) 40 — (0/3).

HOU @ CIN
Prediction: 21–28
Actual: 30–27

Stroud leads the Texans for another big game against the Bengals racking up 356 yards in the air and another 188 on the ground. The Bengals got a TD right out the gate and then went dormant until 3 minutes left in the 3rd. Never counted out of the game completely though as Cincinnati comes all the way back with tying field goal in the last minutes. To no avail though as Stroud finds Dalton Schultz and Noah Brown 47 yards combined to get backup kicker Ammendola in range. Houston Field Goal for the last play of the game to finish the upset in Cinci. Houston (Wins), (Covers), and Over 47 — (1/3)

TEN @ TB
Prediction: 19–21
Actual: 6–20

Bucs put a cap on the 4-game losing streak with a win at home. Rachaad White and Mike Evans account for two thirds of the overall TB yardage on offense. The Buccaneers defense also has a great game with an interception, 4 sacks, and keeping Derrick Henry to a 2.2 yard average per carry! I had Tennessee putting up more of a fight but either way TB Win, (Cover), and it stays (Under) 39 — (1/3)

CLE @ BAL
Prediction: 20–22
Actual: 33–31

Deshawn Watson starts the game throwing for a TD on the second play! … too bad it was for a pick six 😬 The Browns quickly fall behind by 14 but they don’t give up getting 9 back in the first half while blocking a field goal and picking up an interception of their own to keep the Ravens within striking distance. The Ravens look like they have control most of the game until the 4th quarter when the Browns quickly score 2 Touchdowns — one a pick six of their own! After getting a stop while down by one, Deshawn watson has 5 minutes to get into field goal territory. Draining as much clock as they can, Watson scrambles for 16 yards to get close to kicking range but also gets injured. Cleveland is now left with 1:39 left and backup quarterback PJ Walker in. Watson wouldn’t let it be left to Walker though as he reenters while the Browns run the clock down 3 seconds. A final play kick from Hopkins is the game winning Field Goal as the Browns upset in Baltimore! Browns (Win), Cover, and they go way Over — (1/2)

SF @ JAC
Prediction: 25–23
Actual: 34–3

I don’t think anyone really saw this one going one sided in Jacksonville but it looked like the San Francisco defense received an advanced copy of the Jags offensive playbook! The Niners defense got 4 total takeaways with 2 fumbles and a pair of interceptions. They also sacked Lawrence 5 times! Deebo Samuel eases back into action with only 4 targets but completing all 4 for 30 yards on the day. Brock Purdy throws for nearly 300 yards and 3 TDs in the match — a stark contrast to his 5 interceptions and only 3 TDs in their last three losses. SF Wins, (Covers), and it stays (Under) 45 — (1/3)

GB @ PIT
Prediction: 17–16
Actual: 19–23

Still a close game but miss with the GB upset prediction here. The GB run defense was the decider here as they allow Pittsburgh to run for over 205 yards. Both Warren and Harris put a tally in the TD column. A pair of interceptions helped to keep the GB offense in check. Pretty close with the flipside prediction! Steelers (Win), (Cover), and it goes (Over) 38 — (0/3)

ATL @ ARI
Prediction: 20–24
Actual: 23–25

Going against the models I took a chance on the Cardinals and it paid off! The Cardinals welcome Kyler Murray back with a win as Arizona foils the Falcons two-point conversion attempt late in the fourth and march down the field to put Matt Prater in a position to win it with a 23-yard Field Goal with no time left on the clock! In a surprise twist, Clayton Tune gets his first TD in the NFL with a 1-yd rush with 19 seconds left in the third. James Conner ran for 73 yards in the contest but both Arizona TD were ran in by quarterbacks. Arizona Wins, Covers, and it goes (Over) 44 — (2/3)

DET @ LAC
Prediction: 27–23
Actual: 41–38

In a game that did not disappoint on the scoreboard, Detroit gets the win on the road. Both teams posted over 320-yards in the air but the difference of 2:1 on the ground gave Detroit the overall yardage advantage. Add an interception on defense and the Lions have the edge they needed. Tied at a staggering 38–38 with 3:34 left on the clock, the Lions start their 53-yard drive to leave Riley Patterson with a 41-yard game winning Field Goal! Montgomery and St. Brown show out and 5 different Lions find the end zone — Jahmyr Gibbs twice! Defenses were on vacation it seems as LA posted 4 TD in the air and 1 on the ground as well. Keenan Allen picked up 2 of those TDs and 175 yards. Detroit Wins, Cover, and goes well Over 48 with a total of 79 points! — (3/3)

WAS @ SEA
Prediction: 27–29
Actual: 26–29 (So close!!)

Overall a pretty tight matchup throughout the game. Seattle showed a slight advantage in the 3rd but Washington answered back with 2 TDs in the 4th. MVP Jason Myers adds to his 14 points already in the game by kicking a game winning Field Goal to break the tie and get the win for the Seahawks! Seahawks Win, Commanders Cover, and Over 44.5 — (3/3)

NYG @ DAL
Prediction: 9–31
Actual: 17–49

Pick of the week does not disappoint! Definitely did not expect the Giants to get 2 TDs. DeVito still unable to find his feet. We’ll see if Matt Barkley gets the call to start in Washington. Brandin Cooks and CeeDee Lamb combine for over 320 of the Cowboys’ 472 yards. Four different Dallas receivers get a catch in the endzone — Lamb caught one and rushed for TD too! Dak and Dowdle both run a TD across the line to finish the 7 total TDs for Dallas. Dallas Win, Covers, and Over 38.5 all by themselves! — (3/3)

NYJ @ LV
Prediction: 15–13
Actual: 12–16

Josh Jacobs finally breaks 100 for the first time this season with one carry netting 40 yards. He also fumbled twice, losing one. Not much else to really focus on in this one. Raiders are able to keep Wilson in check and get the (Win), Cover, and it stays Under 36.5 — (2/3)

DEN @ BUF
Prediction: 18–39
Actual: 24–22

Buffalo shoots themselves in the foot over and over this game, surprised they were able to walk off the field! The Illegal Formation penalty with 12 men on the field during the *Missed* Will Lutz field goal at the end of the game while ahead by one is the ultimate facepalm. This wasn’t even a rush off the field and didn’t quite make it situation! The Bills literally lined up with 12 men at the line of scrimmage. Will Lutz in his second attempt, and 5 yards closer, seals the win with a Field Goal to end the game. Broncos (Win), (Cover), and Push on the 46 — (0/2)

And the results are… not the worst! Especially considering how close 6 of the games ended!

Week:
Wins — 8/14 (57%)️
Spread — 8/14 (57%)
O/U — 7/12 (58%)

Running total:
Wins — 27/41 (66%)📉
Spread — 18/38 (42%)📈
O/U — 19/37 (51%) 📈

Disclaimer: Most of the above is a personal opinion and carries no guarantee. As a human, I make mistakes. In my error, I owe nothing. The team names and trademarks utilized in the narrative above do not imply nor aim to imply any association with their respective owners. AI was used to generate the images in these posts but not used for any research or content generation.

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