Changes in Latin America’s purchasing power is reflected in visa overstays
Illegal immigration from once-thriving nations in development fluctuates with political and economic changes, data shows
Latin America had a tough year in 2016. Economies that had once grown strong by exporting raw materials and agricultural products were hit hard by a free-fall in oil, nickel, coffee and soybean prices. In Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, per-capita gross domestic product, which indicates the amount of wealth per inhabitant, dropped at least 20% from 2014 to 2016, according to the World Bank. It was the end of the commodities boom.
Carla, a 30-year-old Brazilian who spoke on condition of anonymity, didn’t know about these statistics. But in 2014, she did notice inflation was increasing and jobs were scarcer. The single mother of a 5-year-old , she decided to leave her daughter with her mother and brother in their hometown, Belo Horizonte, in southeast Brazil, and go to New York on a tourist visa to work under the table. Thousands would follow her: from 2015 to 2016, the number of Brazilians, Colombians and Venezuelans overstaying their tourist visas went up by 20%.
“For Latinos, the primary motivation for immigrating to the U.S. has always been economics,” said Jeanne Batalova, an analyst at Migration Policy Institute (MPI), a Washington-based think tank that supports liberal immigration policies. “But because of the recent immigration bans, there has been a sense of urgency, a we have to go right now, or who knows what will happen later?”
India and China, once among the top five countries with the most people trying to immigrate illegally by overstaying visas, were topped by Venezuela in 2016, when 23,000 nationals overstayed their U.S. tourist visa. That country, whose population is less than 1/40th India’s or China’s, now accounts for almost twice as many overstays as India.
However common, visa overstays have been underreported in the media because of lack of data. Only in 2015 did the Department of Homeland Security start to track arrivals and departures of foreigners and estimate how many would fail to leave by the date given by Immigration, usually six months after entry.
After three years of data collection, the numbers show that the end of the 14-year commodities boom has not only caused economic and political instability in Latin America, but also changed the profile of the illegal immigrant admitted to the U.S. on tourist visa, known as class B. Before those economies crashed, they rose high, and a new type of Latino immigrant came about: the professional, who has more education and English proficiency than others crossing the Mexican border.
“Highly educated people tend to do better economically, which means they can demonstrate to consular officers they have property at home, a business, and stable jobs,” Batalova said. “They get tourist and student visas more easily, and then stay.”
The illegal immigration trend has been also identified by Immigration, which has been refusing more applications for tourist visas.
Carla has now been in the U.S. illegally for five years. If she left before adjusting her immigration status, she would be barred from entering the country for a decade. “It feels like a prison, but I can’t just leave,” she said. “I support all my family in Brazil. At the same time, my heart is there.”
Carla’s daughter is 10 now. They haven’t seen each other in person in five years, but they speak daily on Skype.
Brazil’s GDP has been slowly recovering since 2017, and the number of its overstays is now dropping. However, Batalova said that once an immigration flow starts, it is hard to predict which direction it will take. Established communities in the destination country usually encourage immigration, so the new Latino diaspora could be only starting.
According to MPI, Latinos are now the second-largest immigrant community with more educational attainment, after Asians. But Batalova is skeptical.
“Although the flow has switched to a high-skilled immigrant, federal policies haven’t,” she said. “There isn’t a national-level office that thinks about integration of the unauthorized immigrant. And I don’t see that changing.”
