Commander in Thief?
Four lessons from Donald Trump’s recent criminal conviction
What is currently unfolding in US politics is nothing short of brutal, borderline insane, and very ironic. During Trump’s presidential campaign against Hillary Clinton, his supporters would vehemently scream “Lock her up! Lock her up! Lock her up!” Fast forward to today, however, Clinton is presumably home safe and sound — nowhere to be seen on the political battleground, while the Donald himself has ended up being the candidate in very real risk of imprisonment.
First lesson: Be careful what you wish upon your enemy.
Trump was convicted for falsifying business documents pertaining to hush payments made to former porn star Stormy Daniels. Upon the announcement of the verdict, the first thing that may come to people’s minds is — “Will he go to prison?”
According to the letter of the law in New York, each count of falsifying business records carries a maximum sentence of four years in prison. Trump was found guilty of 34 counts of this crime. Thus theoretically, he is potentially looking at 136 years of imprisonment.
Needless to say, this maximum sentencing is extremely unlikely. We will all find out the ultimate verdict on July 11, 2024 (the day of Trump’s sentencing), but most legal observers do not believe the former president will be spending his nights behind bars. But even if he were to, it would be for an extremely short period of time — considering that he is a first-time offender, his age, and his political status. The judge will more likely use other sentencing options such as house arrest or a straightforward fine.
Second lesson: There is no such thing as untraceable hush money when you are campaigning to be the leader of the free world.
Another question that may be marinating in people’s mind is — “Can an imprisoned individual continue to run and be elected as president of the United States?” Surprisingly, the answer is yes. There is nothing in the Constitution that prevents a convicted or incarcerated individual from running for and be elected as president.
The only two things that may possibly hinder a convicted felon or an incarcerated individual when running for president are:
(1) The logistical aspects of campaigning, and
(2) His/her public image or perceived electability.
Trump has neither of those issues.
Firstly, he does not require excessive campaigning to garner more votes. The man did not even attend any of the GOP debates — not a single one. And yet, he was able to maintain top position on the Republican polls at every step of the way. Trump does not require effortful campaigning simply because the media does all his campaigning for him. The popular saying “There is no such thing as bad publicity” has never fitted more appropriately than in Trump’s current situation. As much as it pains me to say this, the truth of the matter is — Trump’s conviction and possible incarceration will only assist (not hinder) his popularity with his voters.
Secondly, Trump does not have an issue with his public image. Conviction or incarceration would not make a dent on the way his supporters currently perceive him. Forgive my blunt French: but who exactly is surprised that someone like Donald Trump — a golden-haired narcissistic celebrity billionaire — would cheat on his wife with a porn star and try to conceal this affair using hush money? Who exactly is surprised by this? Did anyone ever expected Trump to be a righteous, bible-thumping, integrous evangelist in the first place?
Trump’s appeal — and the reason for such fervor within his following — is not due to his virtuousness, but due to his authenticity. Revealing his past misdemeanors will only add to the authenticity that many people crave in politicians today. A smear campaign will only work if the target has a polished and virtuous facade — which Trump does not.
Third lesson: In most popularity contests, authenticity trumps virtuousness.
About half of the country (47%) believes that the charges against Trump were politically motivated — a puppeteering of the legal system by the Democrats in order to undermine his electability in the soon coming presidential election. Trump certainly feels this way. But even individuals who are not necessarily his close allies share the same sentiment.
Former Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney issued strong words by saying “Democrats think they can put out the Trump fire with oxygen. It’s political malpractice.” Left-leaning CNN journalist Fareed Zakaria does believe that this indictment is politically motivated and will not exist if the defendant was not Donald Trump. Even Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has condemned the verdict: “The Democrats feel like they cannot win fair and square on the polls, so they have to defeat him on the courts. I’m not a fan of Trump… but I don’t want to beat him in the court room… it’s not good for our country.”
If it is true that this criminal indictment is a result of the political machinations from the Democrats, then it is not a particularly well thought out one. His campaign reportedly raised $53 million within the first 24 hours following his conviction — possibly the highest any candidate has ever raised in a single day. As I mentioned previously, even prominent politicians and journalists who are not Trump’s best allies are starting to look at the Democrats in a bad light.
Pundits have warned that such insidious political machinations only belong to undemocratic or politically undeveloped nations — the likes of Cuba, Russia, or Libya. Employing the legal system to eliminate the competition is simply not what political candidates in G7 nations do. And it sets a bad precedent as well as a bad image for the integrity of American democracy.
For such a formidable figure like Trump, criminal convictions will not be sufficient to silence him, and more importantly, his supporters. Mitt Romney put it very aptly when he said the Democrats are “…trying to put out a fire with oxygen.” This strategy may be tantamount to shooting themselves in the foot in the long run. This is because criminally indicting Trump will only temporarily contain him. Momentarily restrict him. It will not domesticate him to anyone’s will; or make him “go away” anytime soon.
