Superforecasting

The Art and Science of Prediction

Authors: Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner
Genre: nonfiction; business, planning and forecasting
Rating: 3/5

In one sentence: essential reading if you want to get better at forecasting and predicting, though a summary might do the trick as well if you’re in a rush.

This book could have conveyed the same message in perhaps half the amount of pages; the author often repeats a point or story, and certain sections only vaguely relate to the topic at hand, forecasting (for example one of the later chapters on leadership).

Nevertheless, this is a great and useful read for anyone doing estimates, forecasts and other predictions. It reads well, and provides clear guidelines and practical ideas on how to make forecasts, break down complicated questions about the future, and improve your overall prediction abilities.

“Galen was untroubled by doubt. Each outcome confirmed he was right, no matter how equivocal the evidence might look to someone less wise than the master. ‘All who drink of this treatment recover in a short time, except those whom it does not help, who all die,’ he wrote. ‘It is obvious, therefore, that it fails only in incurable cases.’”

This quote perfectly sums up the author’s thesis and drive: just like the quality of medical practice benefitted enormously from more scientific scrutiny, abandoning reasoning such as the above, so should forecasting be treated and improved in the years and decades ahead.

> Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Goes well with Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow.