NFC Division Round: Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons

While the Seahawks have typically had the Falcons’ number, can Matt Ryan finally overcome his postseason woes?

Key Factors

Julio Jones — In their last matchup, the Seahawks narrowly escaped with the victory largely in part to a questionable no call pass interference between Julio Jones and Richard Sherman. Nonetheless, Jones finished the day with seven catches for 137 receiving yards and one touchdown. What makes this matchup particularly interesting is the fact that Sherman followed Jones on every alignment with the exception of the inside slot position–where Jones made the majority of his catches. What will the Seahawks do this time around? Jones was dealing with a toe injury but is well rested and should be the healthiest he’s been all season.

Run Game — With major concerns on offense, the Seahawks turned back the clock and ran the football like it was 2014. Thomas Rawls ran for a playoff franchise best 161 rushing yards on a 5.96 ypc average last week against the Detroit Lions. While I certainly don’t expect Rawls to duplicate 160 rushing yards, he needs to be just as effective; the Seahawks season average was a paltry 3.9 ypc, ranked 25th in the NFL. The Falcons are the top rated offense so it’s important for the Seahawks to establish a run game early and win the time of possession–they need to keep Matt Ryan off the field.

Pass Rush — When Matt Ryan is given a clean pocket, he is nearly unstoppable with a 129.6 passer rating. The Seahawks’ front seven did an excellent job last week but the Falcons are a much better unit in pass protection. Between Seahawks’ Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril, and Frank Clark, they need to pressure the quarterback. Ryan threw for 335 passing yards and three touchdowns in their last matchup–and this was at Seattle with S Earl Thomas healthy.

Overall Thoughts

The Seahawks narrowly escaped earlier this season and while they certainly have experience on their side, I am highly concerned about their play on the road. At home, they’re 7–1 but on the road, they’re 3–4–1 this season. Ryan has only won one playoff game in five tries but I feel his MVP candidacy is legitimate–especially with a compromised Seahawks’ secondary. Once again, the bulk of the offense will rely on Russell Wilson to compete in a potential shootout.

Falcons -5 Over 51.5

Falcons 31 Seahawks 24

JTW ATS Record: 20–24–1

2015 JTW ATS Record: 29–23–2

Originally published at justthewest.com on January 13, 2017.