Forget history, how will the Republican party judge him?
From 1995 to 2021, the GOP controlled the House for 18 out of 24 years, and the Senate for a bit less. In January 2017, there were 4 conservative Republicans representing the states of Arizona and Georgia in the U.S. Senate:
In 2021, there are now 4 Democratic senators in their places:
The blame for losing those 4 seats can be lain at Trump’s feet.
There were a considerable number of special elections in 2017 and 2018 after Trump took office, and the Republican candidates in those races underperformed badly. To make matters worse, the Democratic candidates’ messaging in those races was largely “My opponent is pro-Trump. Vote for me instead.”
The Democrats won control of the House in 2018 despite gerrymandering (i.e. the Democrats were swimming against the current). And while some of the gains were lost in 2020, the anti-Trump political messaging continues to motivate voters on the Left, those left of Center, and those in the political middle.
The Democrats now control the White House and Congress and that success is in part due to Trump, his personality, and his “business model” approach to governance.
The fact that Trump is hinting at another political run in 2024 just makes political messaging for the Democrats in 2022 and 2024 that much easier.
Losing candidates in the Democratic party have always had the good sense to fade away to some degree or another. They certainly did not attempt to stay in control of the party after they lost.
Humphrey, Dukakis, McGovern, Mondale, and Carter all exited “stage left” from DNC politics after they lost. To some degree, so did Gore and Kerry. And unless you obsessively watch Fox News, no one cares as much about what Hillary Clinton is thinking or doing. They certainly don’t at 430 South Capitol Street, SE.
Twenty years from now, Trump will be seen as the fountainhead that has kept the GOP from the White House and relegated it to the status of the Labour Party in the UK or the Social Democratic Party in Germany — also-rans that had no chance.
In the 1980s, Republicans used to run against “Kennedy liberals” and it drove ardent Democrats nuts. We could not attack those party icons and the dismissive political swipe seemed impossible to overcome. Today, the “Trump” label is largely a wash, but if Democrats retain control of Congress in 2022 and the White House in 2024, Trumpism will be the Ford Pinto of the Republican Party.
Kevin Wray hosts US Politics Reconsidered on Quora, is a longtime writer and analyst on U.S. politics, and formerly worked on Capitol Hill. You can read more of his analysis here.
