The Rising Tides of Technology and (de)Urbanization
Some trends are visibly cyclical, predictably expanding and contracting, like the tides, the economy, or our waistlines. Other trends, such as the seemingly unstoppable acceleration in urbanization, clearly appear headed in just one direction.
An estimated 60% of the world’s population will live in cities by 2030, rising to almost 70% by 2050. Many factors are contributing to this increase, including technology innovations. Advances in agriculture and manufacturing are shifting more and more job opportunities from rural areas into cities. Connected vehicles and devices (the Internet of Moving Things, or IoMT), and the underlying big data systems that optimize them like Urban Engines, are improving the commuter experience on mass transit, as well as enabling more convenient, less expensive vehicle access instead of ownership. Delivery centers are opening closer to urban areas to satisfy just-in-time demand, as urban dwellers become accustomed to everything from warm cookies to kitchen tables to put them on, arriving on their doorsteps within minutes of pushing the “buy” button on their devices.
Yet within this overall macro trajectory is a predictable, less visible cycle. Within every urbanization thrust lies an opposing trend of decentralization, propelled — counterintuitively, perhaps — by the same technology driving the urbanization itself.
Gentrification has pushed lower income populations increasingly far from city centers. While many Millennials have moved to cities, some have moved away, settling in traditional suburbs or more suburban yet re-imagined mixed-use housing options with commuter line accessibility. Others without offices — whether telecommuters or 1099-ers — are choosing “high-res” over high rents.
How will these “new rural” populations “survive” without the on-demand deliveries becoming so popular in urban areas? They may not need to wait long. Drones and WiFi ‘loons may improve accessibility — of both physical goods and information — regardless of remoteness. 3D printers, constrained only by printer and processing speed in their timeliness, may provide the ultimate just-in-time delivery.
In years to come, we may see virtual reality technologies spur urbanization by making cities feel less crowded, either through improved navigation or via buffering its citizens with greater sense of personal space — like yesterday’s newspaper (literally!) or today’s iPods on the subway. Let’s not forget, however, the equally likely scenario that others may use these technologies to settle outside urban areas, with the ability to feel closer to the center of the action — gaining connection, culture, and experiences of urban lifestyle when they so choose — without the cost or intrusion.
Why is this likely the case? Technology always has been at the forefront of centralization and decentralization patterns in urbanization. Despite all our technical advances, today looks more similar to yesteryear than we might think.
From the United States’ urbanization of at the turn of the 20th century came Western expansion made possible by railroad and telephone technology innovations. The same electric trams and trolleys that reduced expenses and commute times for urbanites diffused a segment of pre-War urban dwellers to bedroom communities like Levittown, which sprang up nearby burgeoning commuter rails. And soon, we’ll have self-driving cars that deliver us — and everything from burritos to cuddly kittens — to wherever we’d like to go, whether the destination is urban or rural.
If the past is any indication, technology will drive increases in urbanization, until existing infrastructures can’t sustain current populations. Then these same advances will make de-urbanization more viable, creating new business and lifestyle models — until they reach their outer limits. Or until cities leverage new technology improvements to become more competitive. And the cycle continues.
Put another way, “All this has happened before, and all this will happen again.” For non-fans of science fiction, that’s a quote from Battlestar Galactica — the remake, ironically….
This post originally appeared at blog.urbanengines.com
