COVID-19 Growth Modeling and Forecasting with Prophet
Based on all countries COVID-19 data fetched through REST, we model virus growth with logistic function and run forecast with Prophet library in Python
Web UI is available here — https://app.katanaml.io/covid19/
COVID-19 is a hot topic these days. Healthcare workers are the first line of defense. If you are in IT you are part of the fight against the virus. I thought I should do my part and implement a method to forecast coronavirus growth and dates when the number of infections could stabilize. Forecasting new cases growth could be useful in several ways:
- People would be able to understand, at least roughly when all this would end. This helps to keep the spirit and motivation
- Healthcare workers could estimate medical equipment, hospital beds, protective masks, etc.
I was inspired by this post — Modeling Logistic Growth. The author explains how coronavirus growth can be modeled with logistic formula. I thought why not go one step further and implement a forecast for each country using the logistic growth model. Using calculated parameters from the logistic growth model, I’m executing forecast action with the Facebook Prophet library.
