Environmental Threats

Jeffrey Sachs’ online course on Sustainable Development: Lecture 1, Section 4

One of the most important messages of
sustainable development is that we’ve become a threat
to ourselves.
Economic production has become so large, our productivity in many
ways so high, and the numbers of us on the planet so
vast, that the effect of all this economic activity on
the physical Earth itself has become
overwhelming.
For the first time in human history, for
the first time in the planet’s history,
one species, that would be us human
beings, are threatening the fundamental
parts of the Earth’s own dynamics: the
climate system, the
water cycle, the nitrogen cycle, the ocean
chemistry.
Think about the basic arithmetic.
There are 7.2 billion of us on the planet
now.
On average, each individual is
producing around $12,000 of output
per year, rough number, averaged over the
whole year.
But with 7.2 billion people, an average of
$12,000 per person,
it means that the world economy as a
whole, has an output of between
80 and 90 trillion dollars per year.
Many times
larger than ever in the past and
continuing to expand rapidly.
And the result of all of that, in the
water we are using,
the energy that we are burning, the land
that is being devoted to feeding
the planet, the chemicals that are being
produced, and the pollution that results
from
that poisoning the air and the waterways,
it’s leading to an unprecedented
environmental crisis.
One of things that’s notable about this
crisis,
is that it’s felt by rich and poor alike.
Have a look my own city, swimming for
survival
during this super storm that we
experienced in October and
November, 2012, what we
called Hurricane Sandy.
But halfway around the world the
same year, Beijing experienced massive
flooding.
Or take a look at Bangkok, in the
astounding floods of October, 2011: again
a major world city underwater, deluged by
unprecedented rains and as in all of these
cases, a huge setback for the economy,
loss of life,
massive loss of property, billions or tens
of billions of dollars of damage,
and an unsettled global economy,
because a disruption in one part of the
world, in a world of
interconnected production of supply chains
that stretch across the world.
Mean that a flood in Bangkok can
disrupt automobile production, or computer
production, all over
the world, because of components or
factories
that can’t get to market during these
disasters.
The kinds of disasters that are being felt
are varied,
but what is clear, is that they’re rising
in number.
What we call hydrometeorological shocks or
disasters: water, and weather
related, whether it’s deluges, extreme
storms, hurricanes and typhoons of,
huge, impact, storm surges and floods, as
swept over Manhattan or Beijing, or,
Bangkok,
massive droughts, droughts that lead to,
the
remarkable and shocking phenomenon you see
here, of, terrible
forest fires that spread across the
American West in 2012.
These kinds of varied storms, shocks, heat
waves,
droughts, floods have become the new
normal for the world.
In fact, it’s part of a world that is so
new, and so stark that the scientists
notably the geologists, have given our age
even a new name.
They call it the Anthropocene.
A new word that comes from
its Greek roots, anthropos and cene,
anthropos meaning human
Cene meaning epoch or age of the Earth.
And what the
scientists are telling us is that this is
the human age of the planet.
They don’t mean that in a good [LAUGH]
way.
They mean it in it’s uniqueness and in a
very
dangerous way that humanity is changing
the water cycle, the
climate is warming the temperature is
melting the
glaciers is threatening the great ice
sheets over Antarctica
and Greenland, is causing the oceans to
become more acidic,
is threatening other species with survival
in such a fundamental way
that the planet behaves differently now,
even from
a geologic point of view, hence, the
Anthropocene.
One of the main drivers of these changes
is humanity’s massive use
of coal, oil, and natural gas, the three
energy sources we call fossil fuels.
When we burn coal, oil, and gas to move
our cars, heat our buildings,
drive our industrial production, produce
electricity, we end
up with carbon dioxide emitted into the
atmosphere.
And carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
changes the climate.
This stark graph, which we will revisit,
later on,
shows the cycles of carbon dioxide
concentrations in the atmosphere,
shown here, over the last 800,000 years.
Well, by natural processes mainly changes
of, the
earth’s, orbit, and the effects that that
produced, carbon
dioxide in the Earth’s history has gone up
and down in kind of a wave like manner.
But look at the recent few years, the, the
blink
of an eye in terms of the Earth’s history.
Carbon dioxide has suddenly soared to
levels of 400 parts
per million in of CO2 in the atmosphere,
something not seen on the planet, not for
800,000 years, indeed not for 3,000,000
years.
And this is causing massive disruption of
the climate system,
global warming, and more extreme events
like droughts and floods.
We’ll be talking a lot about this and what
could be done about it.
But it is a stark illustration of
how humanity is changing the basic Earth
processes.
A group of scientists got together a few
years ago.
And noted that it’s not only the carbon
dioxide in the air, but many other things
that we’re doing.
The way we’re using water the way that
we’re putting
nitrogen based fertilizers into the soil
to help crop productivity.
But putting it on in such large
amounts that the nitrogen cycle, itself,
is effected.
The way that carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere
affects the ocean chemistry, making the
ocean more acidic.
The way we’re chopping down trees
to make room for new pasture land and
farmland.
In other words, all the varied effects of
a big crowded
planet and a lot of economic activity,
threatening the planet systems.
And so this group of scientists said we
are trespassing, boundaries that are safe
for humanity.
So these scientists said we need to
identify
the safe operating limits for the planet,
we
need to understand what those planetary
boundaries are.
And around the circle you see here
is their visualization of those planetary
boundaries.
Have a close look: climate change, ocean
acidification, ozone
depletion, the nitrogen cycle, the
phosphorous cycle, global fresh
water use, changes in land use, loss of
biodiversity,
driving other species to extinction, that
is, aerosol
loading, the particles we’re putting into
the atmosphere through industrial
processes, and chemical pollution,
poisoning air and waterways.
These are planetary boundaries that we
trespass at profound
risk for ourselves and for our children.
A core goal of the science of sustainable
development is to
understand these risks and most
importantly to determine what we can do
so that we stay within the safe operating
limits of humanity, we honor
and respect these planetary boundaries, as
we continue to improve
our well being.
It’s the combination of economic
prosperity, social inclusion, ending
poverty, and ensuring environmental
sustainability, that is the holistic
objective of sustainable development.