The World’s Most Dangerous Nuclear Zone
Today (Sept. 26) is the International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons. Achieving global nuclear disarmament is one of the oldest goals of the United Nations. It was the subject of the General Assembly’s first resolution in 1946. After general and complete disarmament first came onto the General Assembly’s agenda in 1959, nuclear disarmament has remained the most important and urgent objective of the United Nations in this field.
This day falls on the anniversary of an incident that happened in 1983, when the world was just inches away from accidentally entering what would most likely have been a nuclear holocaust. It was during the time when relations between the US and USSR were at an all-time low that a Lieutenant Colonel in the Soviet Air Defence Forces in charge of an early warning radar system near Moscow, refused to follow instructions in response to not one, but two false warnings (unbeknownst to him at the time) showing that the US had launched nuclear missiles in the direction of the Soviet Union
The name of that hero was Stanislav Petrov. But to many today, he is known simply as “The Man who Saved the World.”
That incident should serve as a serious warning to the dangers posed to the world and all its inhabitants by the existence of nuclear weapons and the possibility of a nuclear Armageddon brought about by even a random occurrence, or the whim of a madman, as a result.
And yet today, some 14,500 nuclear weapons remain. Countries possessing such weapons have well-funded, long-term plans to modernize their nuclear arsenals. More than half of the world’s population still lives in countries that either have such weapons or are members of nuclear alliances. As of 2018, while there have been major reductions in deployed nuclear weapons since the height of the Cold War, not one nuclear warhead has been physically destroyed pursuant to a treaty, bilateral or multilateral, and no nuclear disarmament negotiations are underway.
And that should be a cause of concern to people in the Indian subcontinent.
After over 7 decades, the conflict between India and Pakistan shows no sign of stopping. Today, rival armies patrol a heavily militarized Line of Control, while terrorist attacks periodically shatter the peace.
And both sides have nuclear weapons.
India and Pakistan have an estimated 130 nuclear weapons each, as well as the planes, missiles, and ships they need to deliver them. As a result, the region is dangerously close to a war that could turn nuclear. If that line were crossed, the consequences would devastate the region and could have disastrous effects on the entire world.
Near-nuclear misses
During the 1999 Kargil conflict, foreign secretary Shamshad Ahmad warned that Pakistan was prepared to use “any weapon” in its arsenal. Then came reports that Pakistan had alerted its nuclear forces. International pressure on Pakistan managed to de-escalate the situation, and the war ended without nuclear conflict.
But in 2001, nuclear weapons were back on the table. Terrorists based in Pakistan had attacked the Indian parliament, and then Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, fearing Indian retribution against Pakistan, considered a preemptive nuclear strike. Luckily, the standoff did not escalate into an armed conflict.
The two sides reached a ceasefire in 2003, but from time to time violence still breaks out along the border. And things seem to be getting worse. The two nations broke off talks in 2014 and have yet to return to the table. Unless they can somehow resolve their differences, more violence is likely. The looming threat of another war — potentially a nuclear one — is always there.
What would happen if both sides nuked each other?
If 100 Hiroshima-sized nuclear bombs were dropped on cities in India and Pakistan, 20 million people would die instantly from the bomb blasts and ensuing fires and radiation. Firestorms would erupt, releasing massive amounts of smoke into the upper atmosphere. This would cause a 10% reduction in global precipitation and a sudden drop in temperature. Crops would suffer as smoke blocked the sunlight and growing seasons became shorter. The climate would be impacted for at least a decade, perhaps longer.
Reports from International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War and Physicians for Social Responsibility estimate the effects of a limited nuclear war on the earth’s climate and agriculture. The results are alarming. The physicians initially estimated that one billion people worldwide could die from starvation. However, additional research by environmental and agricultural experts from Rutgers suggests that the number may be much larger. Their best estimate is that more than 2 billion people would be at risk of starvation.
It makes for a very grim scenario.
This year’s International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons is being observed as world leaders gather in New York for the opening session of the United Nations General Assembly, and is just prior to deliberations of the UN Disarmament and International Security Committee starting and continuing throughout October 2018. Which means that now is the perfect time for them to draw from the various lessons of the past, and to begin working together for the total elimination of nuclear weapons.
For us in South Asia, the stakes are enormously high. If India and Pakistan don’t resolve their differences, it could end in nuclear war. And that would mean disaster not just for the citizens of these bitter rivals, but for everyone, everywhere.
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