Snap election results are the latest bend in a two-year roller coaster ride of British politics
Commentary: The stakes are especially high for young Brits, who voted in droves to stave off a Conservative parliamentary majority
By Vitor Forte
A lot can happen in two years.
Thursday night as the clock struck 10 p.m., the first exit polls were released for the 2017 U.K. General Election. I was nervous; I hadn’t felt like going out and drinking through the returns, even though my best friend and I spent the last general election, in 2015, in a cocktail bar, comparing our final predictions for who would end up with what number of seats.
This year it felt like there was a hell of a lot more at stake given the relentless roller coaster ride of British politics over the past two years.
In 2015, I felt apathetic about both major candidates and almost didn’t bother going to the polling centre at all.
That year, incumbent Prime Minister David Cameron didn’t expect his Conservative Party to receive a majority of seats in Parliament. In fact, he seemed so confident he wouldn’t get a majority that during the campaign he made a risky election promise to hold a referendum on the U.K.’s membership in the E.U., purely to satisfy Eurosceptic backbenchers.
Knowing that remaining in a coalition with the Liberal Democrats meant this would never come to pass, it was a risk Cameron was willing to take. The result was a slim Conservative majority but a majority nonetheless.
The Conservative majority was a shock, and naively I didn’t expect the repercussions to be so monumental so quickly.
But sure enough, one year later, the U.K. again headed to the polls to decide if it would remain in the E.U., having been a member since 1973.
Once again, the outcome of the referendum vote was a shock, and once again it was decided by a frustratingly slim margin — 52% to 48% — no matter how “decisive” a win the right-wing press tried to make it seem. Cameron promptly resigned, and in a tawdry scuffle which left several prominent Tories out of their jobs, Theresa May emerged victorious as the Conservative party leader and Prime Minister.
Despite having been a quiet backer of the “Remain” side, May soon brought about hard-line rhetoric that startled and alarmed governments and the press throughout Europe, but placated the all-important tabloid press at home in Britain. Considering the ramifications of the upcoming Brexit negotiations with the E.U., this ought to have been a Brexit-led election, and one that May could have won handily. With polls predicting a 20 point lead for the Conservatives just two months ago, the snap election seemed like a shrewd move to consolidate this insurmountable lead over Labour and drive forward with a hard and fast Brexit.
A few factors soon proved this was not to be the case.
A manifesto was presented that has since been described as one of the worst in history, doing May no favours, nor did the fact that rumours were swirling that she had consulted barely anyone from within her party when writing it. From fantastical net migration targets of tens of thousands per year (down from over 250,000 currently), to social policies that appeared to punish the traditionally Tory elderly rich, to draconian nationalism that would punish businesses hiring foreign workers, it was a messy affair that left the public confused at best.
The U-turn in social policy that took place just days after the manifesto was released made the party seem weak, and took the focus away from May’s key message of a strong hand at the Brexit negotiating table.
Despite May’s attempts to bring the narrative back to the upcoming negotiations, she was no longer able to control it. She inexplicably abdicated further control by refusing to appear at leaders’ debates, offering awkward sound bites when agreeing to be interviewed at all, and appearing unclear on anything other than the chaos that would ensue if she did not secure a commanding majority in Parliament.
Meanwhile, leading the opposition was Labour veteran Jeremy Corbyn and his message of “for the many, not the few.” This was apparently the tonic people needed after years of austerity measures that had devastated the poorer parts of British society. Despite having the most radically socialist manifesto in recent times, Labour were able to fully cost out their policies and come across as rational and relatable, regardless of the smear campaign the majority of the press ran against Corbyn and several key Labour MPs.
A lot of write-ups have described this election as the revenge of the young, but that feels like an oversimplification — one that detracts from what Corbyn was able to do in such a short period of time. If anything, it felt like the young fighting back for their future rather than voting vindictively to spite older generations. Labour’s valiant campaign efforts combined with simmering resentment over May’s threatened hard Brexit meant that the Conservatives were unable to secure the significant majority May so desperately wanted to have going into Brexit negotiations with the E.U.
Polls had regularly predicted May receiving a majority of more than 100 seats. In fact securing a majority at all proved beyond her reach, an astounding result and an unbelievable humiliation that in any other instance would have surely meant a resignation was not far off.
Post-analysis debate will focus on whether or not the astonishing decision not to participate in any debates — or indeed display any humanizing interactions whatsoever throughout the short campaign — affected May’s chances, but early reports of massive youth turnout suggest a populace that was ready and willing to make use of their voice. Initial reports found 72% turnout among 18–24 year olds; this represents an almost 30% increase over 2015.
Much will also be made of the as-yet-undefined partnership that the Conservatives are apparently entering into with the Democratic Unionist Party, a fundamentalist party from Northern Ireland, given their unsavoury positions on climate change, gay rights and women’s rights. Sinn Fein, the left-wing Irish Republican party, have also claimed that any such partnership violates the terms of the Good Friday agreement which helped end the Northern Irish conflict in the 1990s. Despite assurances from the openly gay head of the Scottish Conservatives, Ruth Davidson, the Tory-DUP partnership is already proving controversial, and yet another headache May does not need.
How will this new coalition party give May a strong and stable hand when dealing with Brussels? Brexit negotiations ought to involve a cross-party team that is truly representative of the British electorate and their interests, but given the DUP partnership and Conservative manifesto, this feels like a pipe dream.
As it stands we are going into Brexit negotiations in just 10 days’ time, with a weakened leader who already enjoyed poor relations with other E.U. leaders and whose population have made it clear they do not support the path they are being led down.
With another general election emerging as a distinct possibility before the year is over, the British political roller coaster has a lot of track left to cover.
Sign up to receive Kheiro straight to your inbox, and don’t forget to follow us on Facebook.
