What does the IPCC Report tell us about Malaysia’s future? with Climate Tracker
This post was originally published in June 2022 on KAMY Blog.
The IPCC report is long and comprehensive, well it has to be if it is talking about our climate. Even the Summary for Policymaker is quite technical to read.
We had a conversation with Kalash, a journalist and a Climate Tracker fellow about the mentions of Malaysia in any parts of the IPCC report. Is there any data that tells the story of our nation’s future?
The future of Malaysia
The Summary for Policymakers mentions very little about South East Asia, and almost nothing about Malaysia. However, talking about the future of Asia (keep in mind that Asia is huge), this was perfectly summarized in the AR6 WGII CH10:
Climate change related risks are projected to increase progressively at 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C of global warming in many parts of Asia.
Heat stress and water deficit are affecting human health and food security. Risks due to extreme rainfall and sea level rise are exacerbating in vulnerable Asia.
This does not sound good and we know that Malaysia continues to experience loss of biodiversity, including forests, peat swamps, mangroves which are crucial for our own adaptation & mitigation in the face of climate crisis.
Increased intense rainfall events → More floods, landslides, and deaths
Malaysia experienced RM6.1 billion loss from floods in 2021 (source: DOSM).
In the future, most of East and Southeast Asia are projected to experience more intense rainfall events as soon as by the middle of the 21st century. In those regions, the flood risk will become more frequent and severe.
Sea level rise
Though the WGII CH10 specifically says China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam have the highest numbers of coastal populations exposed (thus, most vulnerable), we are already seeing the drastic effects in Klang, which is an area that plays a significant role in Malaysia’s economy. We recently went to meet the communities in Klang who have experienced flood for the past 30 years, they say floods are getting worse.
Food insecurity
Major projected impacts of climate change in the agriculture and food sector include decline in fisheries, aquaculture, and crop production particularly in South and Southeast Asia, reduction in livestock production in Mongolia, and changes in crop, farming systems and crop areas in almost all regions with negative implications to food security (medium confidence).
In addition, the IPCC reports recognizes the important role of Indigenous communities & traditional communities such as farmers who collaborate with nature and re imagine resistance in their own ways.
Climate crisis is a health crisis
Malaysia’s healthcare system is not ready to face potential climate impacts. We have to design climate resilient health systems, so we can operate during extreme weather events.
High temperatures affect mortality and morbidity in Asia (high confidence). In addition to all-cause mortality (Dang et al., 2016; Chen et al., 2018e), deaths related to circulatory, respiratory, diabetic(Li et al., 2014b) and infectious disease (Ingole et al., 2015), as well as infant mortality (Son et al., 2017) are increased with high temperature (high confidence).
Climate migration & displacement is already happening
Unsurprisingly, there is no data on climate migration in Malaysia. Even globally, there is still disagreement on methodology on detection and attribution of migration caused by climate change. Based on our researcher’s experience of growing up in Kalimantan, migration due to floods and crop loss is quite common but never recorded.
Increased climate variability and extreme events are already driving migration (robust evidence, medium agreement) and projecting longer-term climate change will increase migration flows across Asia (medium confidence).
Transboundary haze
The transboundary haze issue receives very little attention in the face of climate crisis. Recently CERAH — Anti Haze Action filed a complaint to SUHAKAM for public inquiry into haze pollution as a human rights violation.
Haze is not only a huge source of emissions, but also a direct threat to our health.
Under RCP 8.5, it is projected that by the end of the century, the annual rainfall will significantly decrease (30%) over SEA, and 13 the number of consecutive dry days will significantly increase (60%) over Indonesia and Malaysia (Supari et al., 2020). Peat degradation and losses to fire result in large GHG emissions (Miettinen et al., 2016) as well as haze pollution that is a trans-boundary problem in the region (Heil et al., 2007).
Climate action must begin at both high level and grassroots
The IPCC is clear on this, no more new fossil fuel development if we want a livable future. There is also a lot of other recommendations, but which ones should the Malaysian government immediately work on?
Recently Gabungan Darurat Iklim Malaysia (GDIMY) put out a letter calling upon the Government of Malaysia at the federal, state and local levels to declare a Climate Emergency in Malaysia no later than 16 September 2022 (Malaysia Day).
There are 12 specific calls with detailed recommendations in the letter. We need rapid transition in all sectors, however this is deeply challenging if we don’t have good governance.
Thus, the first 3 demands in the GDIMY highlights this;
- Declare a Climate Emergency
- Ensure that the Climate Emergency Declaration’s Framework for Action is Principle-based, Putting Planet and People First.
- Institute integrated, participatory, equitable, and rights-based governance mechanisms and processes for the Climate Emergency.
The IPCC AR6 WGII also mentions, that in order for system transitions to happen, vertical and horizontal policy linkages; active communication and cooperation between multiple stakeholders; and attention to the root causes of vulnerability are essential.
Important to mention, the GDIMY letter is a live document and it will continue to evolve. There are a few calls which were not mentioned but has been an increasingly discussed topic on international level which relates to gender and adaptation. Out of KAMY’s 13 demands, we also include demands such as:
- Define adaptation, set targets, scenario planning and roadmap for the National Adaptation Plan driven by overarching resilience and human rights components.
- Appoint a National Gender and Climate Change Focal Point for climate negotiations, implementation and monitoring, and kickstart efforts to outline critical gender interventions for national climate mitigation and adaptation policies.
Conclusion
The IPCC reports have been helpful in giving us a snapshot of climate impacts in Asia & Southeast Asia. The outcomes of IPCC report are crucial in shaping Malaysia’s climate policies and ambitions, for example our NDCs. However, it all goes back to localizing these knowledge and recommendations.
Obviously there is a lot of other things that Malaysia needs to look into, such as a National Adaptation Plan, carbon market, and the emerging field of extreme weather attribution — which can help us see the future of Malaysia. But for that, we need a lot of data and a solid community of journalists who can report about climate change, scientists, and CSOs who work together to pressure the government and mobilize change from the ground up.
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