Baby Boom to Bust

How declining population growth has shifted expectations

STORY BY LISA HANSEN
infographic by David Shin

“A birth-control program aimed at zero population growth must be inaugurated as soon as possible if we are to avert progressively more frequent and ever-widening famines, as well as avoid still further disruption — not to mention destruction — of the ecosystems of every major region of the world.”

This quote comes from a letter to the editor of The Western Front on November 12, 1969.

This was not an uncommon view at the time, says Jay Teachman, a sociology professor at Western.

Population growth is measured by Total Fertility Rate (TFR): how many children each woman will have during her lifetime. A TFR of 2.1 is considered the sustainability rate: essentially, the number of babies needed to replace the parents. Any less would cause the population to shrink and any more would cause it to grow.

Zero Population Growth, now called Population Connection, advocated for population growth to be limited to the sustainability rate. While people in the ’60s and ’70s were very wor-ried about overpopulation, we don’t have to worry about that in today’s world, Western economist Dennis Murphy says.

“The concern is not too many babies,” Murphy says. “The concern is too few babies.”

As societies become richer, they have fewer children, because children become less of an economic asset and more of a luxury good, Murphy says. Their economic cost outweighs their benefit.

Having fewer children changes a society’s age structure, Teachman says. In many countries experiencing population decline, the number of workers per retiree is small and shrinking. It’s important that the younger generation produce what the older population needs. If the younger generation is not willing to transfer (sell or trade) their assets to the older generation, they will not have what they need to live and survive, Murphy says.

Giving dependents more money would not solve the problem, Murphy says. Money is only a means to a resource.

“You could have a million dollars, but if you can’t find potatoes, you are going to go hungry,” Murphy says.

Both Teachman and Murphy agree that while those in the ’60s may have worried about overpopulation, today’s problems are the opposite, when most of the industrialized world has shrinking populations. If this trend continues, economic growth may be hurt and cultures may shrink or even die out, changing the map as we know it, Murphy says.