Escaping the Doldrums: Where the Knicks Go From Here
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At the midway point, the Knicks chances for contention this season have narrowed considerably. At 18–24, they have lost 10 of 12, retain a dreadful defensive rating of 108.0, and their net rating has dropped to -3.5. While they hovered above water with a negative net rating earlier this season, their performance has regressed to a more natural position in the standings. Unfortunately, that stretch of regression was so negative in its circumstances that it seems to have doomed any hope of recovery.
There was a backbreaking buzzer-beater against Milwaukee, and Rose went AWOL against the Pelicans. If that wasn’t enough, there was another buzzer-beater against Philadelphia and an embarrassing 69 point half for the Raptors, followed by an eight point performance for the Knicks in the third quarter. Charley Rosen (a confidant of Phil Jackson) wrote a piece claiming that claimed Carmelo Anthony has “outlived his usefulness in New York”, which led to reporters pressing the issue of his no-trade clause following the Toronto game. The next day, the Knicks lost again in the last possession, on a heartbreaking three from Dennis Schroder and a questionable ‘no-call’ on a Rose drive in the final seconds.
To expect a turnaround from this point is far-fetched. The Knicks face a tough upcoming schedule with games against the Hawks, Celtics, Wizards, Pacers and Hornets and don’t have an extended home stand until February 4th through the 12th, and that stretch of games includes bouts against the Cavaliers, Clippers and Spurs. They have played their worst defense in the month of January with a porous 109.3 DRtg. Kristaps Porzingis has what seems to be a lingering Achilles issue that urges caution in his return; Lance Thomas has an orbital fracture and potential concussion, and Anthony has played with a shoulder issue for a month.
The mood in the locker room has begun to sour. Brandon Jennings has vocalized his issues with the coaching staff, and Courtney Lee is sending shrouded messages through social media. Hornacek started Ron Baker over Lee vs. Atlanta as he began to search for answers. More than halfway through the season, it’s clear the Knicks need to make a change.
The No-Trade Clause
Despite the above, the Knicks are perhaps most burdened by Anthony’s no-trade clause. While it may seem prudent to pursue the contrary, they simply cannot decide to ‘blow it up’, move Anthony and hope for a top-five selection in the draft. Rosen’s column and the Raptors game may have accelerated the long-rumored process of Anthony waiving the clause, however, to this point it remains something he is unwilling to do. And so the Knicks front office is stuck in the mud. Assuming they keep Anthony, the team must attempt to compete for the playoffs despite their ever-dwindling chances. This does not mean they should move future assets to attempt a run at contention in the second half of the season. They have the chance to improve their team with measured transactions, and should Anthony remain unsatisfied in the summer, he could waive the no-trade after the season and return value for New York, without the Knicks having to part with assets now that would hinder a larger rebuilding effort.
Regardless if Anthony waives the clause or not, the Knicks have a clear objective at the trade deadline. They must identify the pieces, however many, that have weighed down their performance. From that pool, they should identify those which are on acceptable contracts to the league and identify the teams which could use their skill-sets. If approached judiciously, New York can use the upcoming deadline to improve their standing, develop their youth and better position the team moving into the summer.
Finding Time for the Rookies
In 183 minutes this season, Ron Baker is +9.3 points per 100 possessions. The team has a brilliant 98.1 defensive rating with him on the floor. He’s shown excellent ball pressure, the ability to rebound well for a point guard, and the skills to operate in pick and roll.
In 461 minutes, Willy Hernangomez has been the Knicks best big man in terms of the team’s performance when he is on the floor. The team is +.6 points per 100 possessions with Hernangomez playing, which is the only positive mark for a Knick with over 300 minutes this season.
Unfortunately, Baker and Hernangomez’s positional counterparts, Brandon Jennings and Kyle O’Quinn, have not performed to that caliber. In 981 minutes, Jennings is -7.4 per 100 possessions with a 109.6 defensive rating. In 616 minutes, O’Quinn is -5.9 per 100 possessions with a 109.4 DRtg. Those are two of the three worst marks on the team. In the 1023 minutes Jennings has been off the floor this season, the Knicks are +.2 points per 100 possessions with a 106.6 offensive and 106.4 defensive rating. In the 2nd half of games, the trend is worse. With O’Quinn on the floor in 2nd halves, the Knicks are -10 per 100 possessions with a 114.1 defensive rating. The team’s defensive rating moves above 110 as well with Jennings on the floor in the 2nd half of games. When viewed through this lens, New York’s immediate path forward is incredibly clear.
Jennings and O’Quinn are both solid veteran role players that could contribute elsewhere in a better-defined role. On the Knicks, their defensive flaws are exacerbated, and they are both asked to do too much offensively. Jennings is 27 and O’Quinn is 26, while Baker and Hernangomez are 23 and 22 respectively. O’Quinn is owed around $12 million through the 2018–19 season, an extremely reasonable rate for a backup big over the next few years. Jennings’ contract expires at the end of this season and is $5 million, no major commitment for a team looking for a spark off the bench. They could be packaged together to a team looking to bolster their bench rotation, or moved separately to teams looking for a scoring punch as well as an active bench-big with decent passing instincts. Importantly, however, the Knicks will open time for their promising rookies and accrue additional cap space for this summer’s free agency period.
O’Quinn and Jennings simply have not been effective for the Knicks this season. While both are highlight-friendly players and can put up impressive numbers in limited minutes, both have played poorly on defense and make enough mistakes offensively to discount their better stints. O’Quinn has a dreadful habit of lunging for blocks, only to find himself out of position as an opposing center cleans up the boards for an easy 2nd chance layup.
He rarely boxes out, which leads to an abundance of offensive rebounds for the opponent. When O’Quinn is on the floor, the Knicks have a 73.4% defensive rebounding percentage, which extrapolated to the entire team would be the worst rate in the league. He may be effective in forcing one miss, or blocking a shot, but he is equally effective in allowing an offensive rebound that leads to a kick-out three, a layup or free throws due to the Knicks poor D.
Jennings has been inconsistent throughout the year, and has a career-low PER (13) along with career-high turnover percentage (20.1%). He has been extremely careless with the ball, often jumping to pass with no intended recipient as he leaves his feet.
Other times, his passes will just be wild and careless, soaring over the head of the intended target.
While his 3-point attempt rate is 46%, an efficient number, he only shoots 33% on those attempts. He’s taken 111 above the break threes at a 31% clip, and attempts 3.8 pull up jumpers per game at a 34% clip. Of players averaging less than 25 minutes per game, only Brandon Knight and Lou Williams attempt more pull up jumpers per game. These looks are generally inefficient, are rarely the result of an offensive action, and disrupt game flow. He takes a high proportion of pull up threes off the dribble in transition when the team could get a much easier look.
He’ll also pull up off the dribble in the half court while it’s early in the shot clock, a cardinal sin for a poor overall shooter.
Both have played so inefficiently that replacing their playing time with Baker and Hernangomez will improve the team’s performance, regardless of the return the Knicks may get for each or both of them in a potential trade. Any scoring advantage that O’Quinn and Jennings provide is offset by their defensive inability, and when they are on the floor, leads diminish and deficits increase.
Taking Baby Steps
Placing an emphasis on trading Jennings and O’Quinn accomplishes a few specific goals for New York. First, the team gets younger, frees up some cap space this summer and opens more playing time for its rookies to develop. Furthermore, the team likely improves by trading away two of its least effective defensive players. The Knicks may have the opportunity to add a draft asset, and a thinner front court rotation will allow for more minutes to play Porzingis at center. Finally, should Carmelo choose to waive his no-trade clause and be moved to a contending team, the Knicks don’t lose leverage in what may be construed as a fire sale should they unload their veterans after an Anthony trade. Trading their veterans now allows for a maximum return on their value, as opposed to moving them after a potential Anthony trade, where the rest of the league is attentive to the team’s desire to rebuild.
On the defensive side of the ball, including the defensive glass, this replacement would bolster the Knicks consistency and help swing some of their closer games. As an anecdotal example, in the Hawks game on January 16, Jennings entered the game in the 2nd half at the 4:30 mark of the 3rd quarter, and O’Quinn entered 30 seconds later. At that point, it was a 69–68 game. When O’Quinn left the court at the 11 minute mark of the 4th quarter, they had given up 19 points in five minutes and were trailing 88–83 with Paul Millsap at the line for two more. As the playoffs move further out of reach, New York cannot afford to lose close games at home like the one on Monday afternoon.
Moving forward, as long as the Knicks have poor rim protection as well as an inability to stop the point of attack as its two core pieces off the bench, they will continue to struggle to retain leads, and their deficits will continue to balloon as their starters come off the floor. New York will continue to minimize the potential impact of Ron Baker’s ability on defense, and squander any opportunities offered by Porzingis’ ability to create against opposing bench units. The debate around Anthony’s no-trade and the impact of Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah are larger questions worth discussing, however, the team has an immediate opportunity to improve without the requirement of adding a major piece. All New York needs to do is shed some of its dead weight.
