The Many Talents of Kristaps Porzingis
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The Knicks went 2–3 on their road trip but hold steady in the Eastern Conference. Circumstances went awry with Derrick Rose’s back, and the team’s lack of point guard depth reared its head for the first time in the season. With interchangeable parts, the team devolves into its early-season form lacking cohesion on both ends. Despite this, and a brief shooting slump, Kristaps Porzingis has been the team’s bright spot. At the one-third mark, Porzingis has had a revelatory sophomore season, and showing the generationally unique talent that makes him a future top-10 player.
Fun With Numbers
While many dismiss Porzingis to a second tier after Karl-Anthony Towns, the truth in the numbers paints a slightly different picture.
In reality, both players are having remarkably similar seasons. Their true shooting percentages are almost equal (.555 to .553). Porzingis has a 113 offensive rating and 109 defensive rating. Towns has 111 and 109. Both players shoot about five free throws per game at a nearly 80% clip. Per 100 possessions, they have identical assist to turnover ratios, as well as steal and block rates. The similarity is practically uncanny, outside from Porzingis’ greater affinity for the three point shot. While all the budding big men in the NBA are marvelous to watch, the rivalry between Porzingis and Towns will be one to watch with a close eye as the years progress.
As mentioned, the main difference between Towns and Porzingis is Kristaps’ proclivity to shoot from long-range. To underscore just how unique of a talent Porzingis is, consider only he, LeBron James and Kevin Durant have ever averaged 20 points while attempting at least five attempts from three, along with seven rebounds and one block per game.
While this trend may not continue, it is fair to assume that Porzingis will accomplish this kind of season at some point soon in his career. Also, while the numbers may seem cherry-picked, it points to Porzingis’ rare ability to protect the rim and serve as a primary rebounder while posing as a scoring threat from three point range. The fact that he may find himself in such unique company at such an early age is even more remarkable, especially over a significant amount of games into his sophomore season.
Highlight A: Rim Protection
Kristaps Porzingis is defending the 2nd most shot attempts per game in the NBA after Draymond Green. Of players averaging over 12 contested field goals per game, Porzingis is allowing the lowest defended field goal percentage in the NBA (40.3%). Within six feet, Porzingis is allowing a FG% of 46% on 6 attempts per game, a staggering 15.5% difference from an average FG% of 61.5% on the same quality shots. Jeff Hornacek has employed Porzingis at center for longer stretches against teams without a high-usage option at the same spot. Last week, against the Lakers, Porzingis spent extended time at center and showed his range of defensive potential.
On the play below, Porzingis trails Clarkson to the baseline while protecting the pass to the roll man, and uses his length to force an air-ball.
Here, Clarkson loses Lance Thomas in the screen, and Porzingis picks up the ball handler at the three point line. He once again uses his positioning to drive Clarkson towards the help defenders, is poised as he tracks Clarkson towards to rim and has perfect timing in contesting the shot to force an ineffective heave.
Porzingis struggles to maintain verticality consistently from game to game, but when he does, it’s a formidable weapon on defense. Below, simply standing vertically is enough to stifle Willie Cauley-Stein from attempting a shot, and Porzingis is so long that he‘s able to block the ball as his arms drop to his side.
He shows incredible potential as a help defender, exemplified in the play below, as he switches onto Lou Williams to force him off his shot, then quickly changes direction to force a turnover on a deflection.
Watch below as he tracks Kevin Durant in the open floor, absorbs contact and uses his length to force a missed layup on a poor angle. He looks anything but 7'3" as he runs the floor, shuffles his feet and changes direction with comfort and ease.
As Porzingis fills out physically and can withstand contact from more physical centers for an extended period, he will shift into a full-time center. His rim protection statistics may suffer a bit, but his incredible length, quickness and timing have already begun to produce elite defensive numbers, and his overall defense should only improve as he matures into his body.
Highlight B: Pull-up Efficiency
Porzingis has shown a wide range of options with his pull-up offense in the early season. He has flashed a crossover, some step-back moves and associated variations to his game that become lethal when combined with his comically high release point. Below, Porzingis begins to drive, sees a guard switched onto him, gets to his spot and has a wide open jumper from the elbow. Porzingis’ full potential is displayed below. He forces a four out to the three-point line, beats him off the dribble and rises over a mismatch. Porzingis will be doing this for a decade-plus.
Porzingis clearly worked on the isolation crossover this summer, as it has become one of his go-to moves this season.
Here it is again.
His other go-to move, as seen in the plays below, is an abbreviated dribble-drive into a pull-up, sometimes incorporating a jab step, which resembles Carmelo Anthony’s patented ensemble. This has proven an effective shot creation technique for Porzingis, who is not yet an adept ball handler, as his length allows him to rise over most any defender, and he is quick to set his feet and release.
Highlight C: Creating Off the Ball
While Porzingis has not mastered his dribble-drive, he has shown incredible potential to create scoring opportunities as a cutter off the ball. While only averaging 1.6 possessions per game as a cutter, Porzingis is averaging 1.55 points per possession on those attempts, generating shooting fouls on 16% of his possessions, and scoring 77% of the time. The Knicks run variations of the action below somewhat often to get Porzingis the ball while moving downhill in the open floor. Due to his length and tight defense with respect to his shooting ability, he is adept at drawing contact on drives to the hoop.
Watch below as he sets an effective pindown and begins to stretch out for a three. Upon recognizing that his screen forced the guard off his path and that his man helped against the ball-handler, Porzingis cut behind him for an impressive alley-oop.
Porzingis has shown an affinity for using the baseline to find dunks, as he does below. Here, he recognizes that the paint is empty as he stands on the perimeter with O’Quinn on the ball. He takes the handoff to create separation from Chriss for a clear lane to the hoop. Watch as he takes a particularly wide angle without the ball to create extra separation.
Here, Porzingis utilizes the baseline once again. In this instance, he is the roll-man. Once again, he has the opportunity to flare out for a three, but again recognizes his defenders’ attention precoccupied with the ball-handler and slips to the hoop for an easy dunk. The dual-threat of the roll and pop, especially when operating as the team’s center, poses quite the challenge against opposing defenses.
Areas of Improvement
Porzingis has been a defensive disaster on back-to-backs, posting a 121.7 defensive rating. His rebounding percentage plunges under 10%, and he shoots slightly less effectively from the field. This is likely an element of fatigue, as his minutes have risen from 28.4 to 34.6 per game since last season, and having played about 100 total games, it’s understandable that he is still adjusting to the speed of the NBA, especially on back-to-backs.
Another area Porzingis should look to improve is without Carmelo Anthony on the floor. While many fans would like the Knicks to trade Anthony and hand the keys of the franchise to Porzingis, Porzingis is far less effective as the main option on the court. His offensive rating drops 10 points to 97.9 despite his usage percentage increasing to 28.1%. When Anthony is off the floor, 46% of Porzingis’ field goals come unassisted, as compared to 30% when Anthony is playing. Porzingis shoots only 28% of his shots from long-distance when Anthony isn’t playing, and shoots 37% of his overall field goal attempts from three when they are playing together. Porzingis is developing an isolation game where he can develop into a top scoring option, however, he is not yet at that place in a shot-creation stage, and has been inefficient when tasked as the ‘go-to guy’.
Porzingis also struggles at times to protect the three point line on defense, as he is prone to helping on the ball-handler in the paint and slow to contest. Part of this is owed to the Knicks’ defensive scheme, but Porzingis can also do a better job of using his length to both help and cut off passing lanes, while giving him time to recover in event of a kick-out. Below he practically falls asleep and leaves Eric Bledsoe wide open from three.
Overall
Aside from rare defensive lapses, some shaky shooting performances and a bad night on a back-to-back every so often, Porzingis has been the best player on the Knicks this season. He is a consistent 20-point scorer in his second year, and has defied the expectations of some with sustained success while playing over 30 minutes per game. His rim protection is astounding, and should only improve as he continues to fill out physically.
However, as a 21 year old, he cannot yet play center full time. Porzingis cannot guard players like DeMarcus Cousins, Andre Drummond and Hassan Whiteside for 30 minutes every night. He’s also not ready to be a number one option, and is not yet the kind of player one can feed in the post for five possessions in a row. His ball handling isn’t at that level, and he still can struggle at times with physical defense.
Despite all that, he already draws a gravity of defenders around him, can shoot efficiently from distance on high volume, and has shown generational rim-protection ability for a player with the concurrent shooting talent. From the perspective of a player with his size and length, along with the shooting and defense he has already shown, Porzingis belongs in the same conversation with Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Davis as the top young big man prospect in the NBA.
