New York Knicks Analysis — Part One
Through five games, the Knicks are 2–3 and have a -7.2 NetRtg, good for fourth worst in the NBA, in front of only the 76ers, Wizards and Magic. They are 15th in the league in Offensive Rating at 101.9 and fourth worst in Defensive Rating at a ghastly 109.0. Their opponents are shooting 39% from three, and they are allowing the second most second chance points in the league at 18.6. They have the league’s worst defensive rebounding percentage (70.1%), and are shooting 70.8% from the free throw line.
While that may paint an ugly picture for the start of the Knicks season, there are encouraging signs about the roster they put together over the offseason. The Knicks rank 9th in the league in assist/turnover ratio, run the 5th most transition offense, fall in the middle of the pack in effective field goal percentage, and in the top half of the league in promising statistics like assisted field goals and contested three point shots.
Many analysts point to a lack of pick and rolls in the Knicks offense, yet, both Derrick Rose and Carmelo Anthony have handled the ball in the pick-and-roll in over 20% of their possessions this season. Rose is ninth in the league in transition possessions. Anthony, often derided for his devotion to post-ups, has done so only 15 times in five games, a measley 13% of his possessions, and is shooting 55.6% on those possessions, good for the 74th percentile of the NBA. Kristaps Porzingis, whom many fans would prefer remain on the perimeter, is averaging 1.14 points per possession on his post-up attempts, good for the 90th percentile in the league.
Hornacek struggled in the first few games managing his rotations. There were times he did not stagger the first and second units, often leaving a full bench rotation on the floor. The Knicks have failed to score with these units with Brandon Jennings as their only offensive threat. Through five games, the three-man unit of Anthony-Rose-Noah is +4, having shot 51.5% overall, and 50% from three. Optimally, Porzingis will play shorter stints with the starting unit, and supplement the bench scoring as the main option in those stretches, especially considering his chemistry with Jennings. This will allow Anthony to play more at the four, and Porzingis to gain experience at center while dominating offensively against other teams’ bench bigs.
Despite the growing pains in managing rotations, Hornacek has certainly instilled a culture of early offense, consistently pushing off misses. Hornacek has also tweaked the triangle to incorporate modern NBA actions that have kept defenses off balance thus far. On the possession below, the first vs. the Bulls, Anthony lets Butler shoot a contested isolation jumper, and the Knicks backcourt springs immediately into action. Lee grabs the rebound with momentum, and sprints to finish an easy transition layup. The 15–16 Knicks simply did not have the personnel to accomplish this, and essentially played each game down 10–0 because of their inability to score on the fastbreak.
Hornacek has also incorporated a variety of modern actions that prior iterations of the Knicks failed to run. Below is a modified elevator for Porzingis. Rose and Anthony set up on the weak side, and Rose and Porzingis set a stagger for Anthony, who curls off into the top of the key. Rose holds his screen against Smith, and Anthony’s curl is a decoy that becomes a middle pindown for Porzingis, freeing him for a wide open 3.
The next play is a version of the Spurs ‘Hammer’. The Knicks have a two point guard set, with both Rose and Jennings on the court. Anthony is at the four, which gives the floor excellent spacing. The Knicks overload the weak side, and Rose has what seems to be a mismatch in an isolation situation with Doug McDermott. Rose gets a step on McDermott, forcing Gibson to help on the block, and Noah sets the hammer screen on the weak side so Butler is slower to close out on Anthony in the corner. The result is an open three at a crucial moment in the fourth quarter.
This is not to say the Knicks have abandoned the triangle altogether. On an early possession in the first quarter against the Bulls, the Knicks settled into triangle spacing at 15 seconds in the shot clock. Noah takes the ball at the top of the key, Anthony moves into the pinch post and sets up a two-man game with Lee. Lee sprints around what is essentially a bluff pindown and gets a step on Rondo, forcing Lopez to help in the paint, which opens a cutting lane for Noah as Rose holds Wade honest on the weak side. The result is an easy layup.
To see how Hornacek is modernizing the triangle, the next play exemplifies some of the concepts he is incorporating. On this play, the Knicks set a stagger screen at half court with Noah and Porzingis, forcing Grant off and Mirotic to switch onto Jennings, which sets a domino effect for the eventual bucket. The Knicks overload the strong side, and Holliday beats McDermott off the dribble forcing Lopez to stay home on the baseline. This in-turn forces Mirotic to switch off of Jennings onto Noah as Holliday begins the reverse action. Once Holliday swings it back to Noah, the Bulls are cooked. Jerian Grant, who was switched onto Porzingis after the stagger screen in the initial action, sprints to recover against an open Jennings, who swings to Lee for an open three on the weak side. The only Bull close to the play was Lopez, who had to sprint from the opposite side baseline to contest the shot.
Hornacek seems intent on utilizing Porzingis’ range and ability to pop out of screening situations. On this next play off a dead ball, Hornacek identifies the Bulls lack of a rim protector, and sets up a two-man action between Anthony and Porzingis that forces Mirotic to stay with Anthony in the post. In a simple play, Porzingis sets a perfect screen that forces Mirotic to stay home, and as Anthony calls for the ball cutting over the screen, Noah holds the ball just long enough to make Butler commit to recovering on Anthony. The instant Butler’s back turns to Porzingis, Anthony sets a screen on Mirotic and Noah passes to Porzingis who pops for an open three.
Here, Rose and Porzingis run a simple pick-and-pop that springs him for another easy three.
On this one, the Knicks run a pindown for Porzingis to get him to the top of the key, and Anthony drives off his screen and delivers a perfect pocket pass for Porzingis for another pick and pop three.
The second most important development for the Knicks outside of Hornacek’s incredible creativity in comparison to former Knicks coaches is the surprising success of Derrick Rose. Rose has not been perfect, but he’s shooting 57% in the restricted area, has only taken four threes, at which he’s notoriously ineffective, and is defending quite well. In a small sample size, opponents are shooting 36.2% against Rose, an 8.8% improvement against the mean amongst all point guards. He has been an above average shot-defender in all areas of the court, and hasn’t allowed over 50% shooting on any space on the floor. He’s taken a majority of his field goals in the first 9 seconds of the shot clock, and has scored almost 75% of his points in the paint. He clearly has not lost his explosion, showing an elite first step here.
On this play, the Knicks push off a miss and Rose beats every player on both teams down the floor and uses his body to get out of a block-able position for a reverse layup.
Here, Rose loses control, but finds a way to improvise and use his quickness in transition to keep the defense off balance. Rondo puts in no effort to stay with him, and the Knicks move it easily to create an open Porzingis layup.
While the Knicks have a had a rocky start to the season, especially on the defensive end, it’s clear Jeff Hornacek has achieved the nascent incarnations of a modern NBA offfense. As the team develops chemistry and Hornacek establishes consistent rotations, I expect them to creep into the top half and eventually top 10 in the league in points per 100 possessions.
The defense is a different story. The Knicks have often looked discombobulated defensively, both in transition and the half court. Their pick and roll coverage is inconsistent, and can vary quarter to quarter. They have a tendency to over-help on ball handlers, which frees a lot of open three point shooters. While they boast three above average defenders in their starting five (Lee, Porzingis, Noah), they have failed outside the Memphis game to put legitimate pressure on the ball. They have largely been lazy on the glass, failing to box out properly which leads to an abundance of offensive rebounds. If the team wants a shot to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2012–13, they need to improve defensively.
The Knicks have the Utah Jazz on Sunday the 6th of November at home, and will look to get back to .500 in the return of Gordon Hayward. It’s the first Sunday Garden matinee of the year, bring your sunglasses.
