Knicks Analysis Part Three — Identifying areas of improvement
This week, I’m going to focus on the specific points of emphasis in which the Knicks lag behind the rest of the NBA. They currently sit at 7–7, good for the seven seed in the East, and are 6–2 at home while only 1–5 on the road. They’ve improved their standing statistically as well, and while they have a -3.5 NetRtg, it has improved over time despite difficult competition. They have faced the 12th most difficult schedule in the NBA, and have an expected record of 5–9 to this point. They rank about average in most categories, but improving in certain categories can catapult them further.
Transition offense
Despite increasing their frequency of transition opportunities, the Knicks are woefully inefficient when they push the ball. They rank last in the league in in points per possession on transition chances, draw shooting fouls under 10% of the time, and score on 41.9% of their overall possessions. Transition chances are high-efficiency plays, but the Knicks’ opportunities have been marred by poor decision making, careless passes and point guards who are not adept finishers. Rose averages .71 ppp on transition chances, and has drawn shooting fouls on 4.9% of them, which places him in the ninth percentile for NBA players in transition. Jennings is worse, averaging .61 ppp, shooting 4–16, placing him in the sixth percentile for all players.
There are flashes of decent play, where the Knicks push off rebounds, shooters flash to the wings, bigs establish position in the post and the ball-handler penetrates, draws the defense into the paint, and kicks.
Other times, the guard will pass to one of the Knicks bigs, often either Porzingis, Hernangomez or O’Quinn who all are adept at finishing around the basket. Porzingis is especially good, but must be quicker down the floor.
If the Knicks are to improve their standing in converting transition chances efficiently, they must renew their focus on making quick decisions when pushing the pace. There are too many careless passes, pull up mid-range jump shots, and one-on-three layups. Rose and Jennings need to improve on finishing around the hoop, but they also need to find shooters, as well as initiate contact and increase the Knicks’ opportunities at the free throw line.
Struggles at the free throw line
The second area of focus in which New York falls last in the league is in their inability to draw fouls. They generate 14.3% of their points from free throws, last in the league. While this isn’t necessarily the hallmark of a poor team, the Knicks are seventh worst in the NBA in free throws allowed to their opponents. If consistent, this puts the Knicks at an inherent disadvantage each game. There are a couple reasons for this.
First, as mentioned above, the Knicks guards are not adept at drawing fouls on their shot attempts. While both Rose and Jennings can reach the rim at ease, they tend to avoid contact. Secondly, the Knicks score 20.3% of their points from the mid-range, the third highest frequency in the league. These attempts tend to be jump shots, which draw fewer fouls than shots at the rim. They also rank third in the league in isolation shot frequency, and only draw fouls on 8.7% of those possessions.
The Knicks must be more aggressive, and shift more of their mid-range and isolation attempts towards attempts in the paint. They also must draw more contact on transition opportunities, and instill more movement off the ball offensively. Cutters draw the highest percentage of fouls due to a lack of defensive balance, and the Knicks must capitalize on players like Lee and Porzingis’s ability to make effective cuts to the basket playing off the ball.
Defending spot-up shooters
The third, and perhaps most relevant area of improvement required from the Knicks is their ability to defend spot-up shooters. According to this analysis on Nylon Calculus, the most significant defensive statistic regarding “play-type” in relation to defensive efficiency is a team’s ability to defend these opportunities. This makes sense logically; a defense that continuously fails to close out on shooters leads to a high volume of three point attempts and open jumpers, and thus a high shooting percentage for the opposing offense. Furthermore, spot-up jump shots indicate a moving basketball, where the defense must rotate quickly and perhaps has left a player open at the point of the catch. The Knicks have struggled mightily in this area, which is the most obvious culprit for their poor defensive efficiency this season.
The Knicks rank last in the league in points per possession surrendered to spot-up jump shooters. They give up spot-up shots on 18% of their defensive possessions, and teams are scoring on 45% of those opportunities, often for three points. While only surrendering a 44.2% field goal percentage, which seems passable, opponents have scored 320 points on 251 spot-up attempts, and on 111 made field goals. That is spectacular efficiency for opposing offenses, and results in a simple game plan when preparing for the Knicks, unless major adjustments are made on the defensive end.
A major reason for this issue is an early season with a large group of new personnel. The Knicks are still working out the kinks of their pick-and-roll coverage, and Hornacek has not yet identified his ideal rotation. On top of those factors, the Knicks struggle to defend when Anthony plays small forward. For reasons I’ll discuss shortly, modern basketball has made it difficult for him to chase around quicker wings at the three position. This often leads to the Knicks being a step slow defensively, forcing defenders like Holiday or Lee to close out late on spot-up shooters on the wing.
The Knicks can improve their standing defensively by fine-tuning certain aspects of their strategy. For example, Porzingis must stop jumping on close-outs, or Anthony can help less on the ball in pick-and-roll situations. As well, the Knicks can play Anthony more at the four, play Holiday and Lee together, and work to communicate better in the half court, as they can tend to be worn out by teams that utilize a motion-heavy offense.
What’s working?
There is no way around it: Carmelo Anthony playing the power forward position is the most significant reason for the Knicks’ success this season.
The top Knicks four-man combinations this season (in significant minutes) have NetRtgs of 19.4, 28.9, 19.3, and 9.2. Three share a commonality of Anthony at the four spot. The +19.4 lineup features Rose and Holiday with Porzingis at center and Anthony at the four. The +19.3 lineup is the same, but with Noah at center. The +9.2 lineup features three wings (Rose, Lee, Thomas) and Anthony at the four. Another positive combination replaces Thomas with Jennings, another guard. Much has been made of Anthony’s defensive effort throughout his career, and while he is not the most active player on that end, it helps when he doesn’t have to chase wings around all game. By supplanting him with options on the wing, namely Rose, Jennings, Lee, Thomas and Holiday, and a competent option to protect the rim, the Knicks can hide Anthony on the forward that is less of a threat offensively.
Offensively, Anthony at the four creates an enormous amount of space. As well, Anthony is often guarded by the opposing team’s best wing defender. When Anthony shifts up a position, it either forces their forward to check Anthony, who can maneuver on that player in isolation circumstances, or that wing defender also shifts up, forcing the opposing team to either remove their power forward entirely, involuntarily go small by shifting that forward up as well, or shift him onto a quicker Knick wing. The Knicks’ true shooting percentage in their top-three Anthony lineups are 63.4%, 59.4% and 62.9%, which over a full season would represent the most efficient offense in NBA history (The 2015–16 Warriors had a TS% of 59.3%).
On the play above, the Knicks run a Horns set late in the clock. Anthony’s threat as a stretch-four allows the middle of the floor to open up, forcing Korver to stay home to protect against a rolling Hernangomez, which blows up the Hawks’ defensive rotation for an open three in the corner.
On this out-of-bounds play, Anthony showcases his passing ability, but the interesting piece is the space open on the floor. With three wings, Anthony and Hernangomez, the Knicks spread the floor, fool the Hawks with motion, and catch them sleeping. Watch how Muscala takes a step towards Lee in the corner after Hardaway is a step slow around the screen. Once Muscala takes a step laterally, Hernangomez has a clear path for a layup. This kind of action likely wouldn’t be possible with Anthony at the four, as Porzingis doesn’t have the passing ability to be the inbounder, and the play centers around both Anthony’s sweet spot on the elbow, as well as the quickness of the wings coming off the screen, which is diminished with him at the three.
Put Anthony at small forward next to two bigs, and the team’s NetRtg goes negative. With Rose, Noah and Porzingis they are -1.8, while Lee, Noah and Porzingis is -3.3. Anthony next to O’Quinn and Porzingis is -15.7 and -26.5 respectively. At this stage in his career, Anthony simply isn’t a full time wing anymore. He can’t chase opposing scorers around screens and play consistent transition defense. His iso-post game offensively becomes a liability with a traditional big lineup, as there is less spacing and thus Anthony has fewer options when passing out of the double teams he draws. None of the Anthony and two-big lineups have defensive ratings under 109, which would qualify as the worst defense in the NBA over a full season.
The difference is stark and simple. The more minutes Carmelo Anthony plays at power forward, the more successful the Knicks are. This fact was true in the 2012–13 season when they won 54 games, and remains true now. While this seems naturally counter-intuitive to signing Joakim Noah for four years, the fact remains that Porzingis not yet a full-time center, and Noah’s presence allows Porzingis to flourish at the beginning of the 2nd and 4th quarters as the main option in a staggered lineup, which would not be a possibility if he was the starting five. Furthermore, Porzingis has shown chemistry with Noah, and the Knicks best four-man combo (+28.9 with an OffRtg of 129.3) features both together, flanked by Rose and Holiday.
Hornacek should continue to refine his rotation, and will have the opportunity to do so as Noah returns today against Charlotte. The Knicks braved a tough opening stretch, and have two home-and-homes coming up with the Hornets and Wolves, buffered by a home game against the flailing Thunder. A 3–2 showing or better should keep the Knicks competitive in an Eastern Conference that has not impressed thus far in 2016.
Coming up next for part four: Knicks Film Room. See parts 1 and 2 here.
