US Official Statistics and President Trump
In 2016, Donald Trump promised to reduce taxes and drive rapid economic growth, get rid of federal debt and create new jobs. Over the duration of his presidency, he’s made new pledges and claims that can — and frequently are — cross-checked with official data. Today we’re tapping into our deep catalog of official US government data to share a couple of examples of how you can use this data to evaluate some of the pledges and claims of President Trump to answer, “How is that working out?”
Talking Point: 3.5% GDP Growth
According to President Trump
“Over the next 10 years, our economic team estimates that under our plan the economy will average 3.5% growth…” [POLITICO, Sept 2016]
US Official Data
Although we are not 10 years in, average GDP growth is still far from his promised 3–4%. The IMF and the World Bank also predict that US GDP growth will decrease to 1.6–1.7% in 2021.
The US economy is actually in good shape, but it will be difficult to achieve a stable average 3.5% GDP growth rate over the next six years. Even the IMF and OECD are forecasting 1.7 and 1.8 percent US average growth rates respectively over the next 4 to 6 years.
Talking Point: Job Creation
According to President Trump
“Over the next 10 years, our economic team estimates that under our plan the economy … create a total of 25 million new jobs”. [POLITICO, Sept 2016]
US Official Data
25 million new jobs over the next 10 years means 2.5 million new jobs per year. Under the first three years of the Trump Administration then new jobs should exceed 7.5 million.
The historically low US unemployment rates were supported by the opening of new production facilities and increased jobs in the non-farm sector. Trump managed to open more than 12,000 plants in three years, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, a growth trend initiated during the Obama administration.
Talking Point: Eliminating the National Debt
According to President Trump
“We’re not a rich country. We’re a debtor nation…We’ve got to get rid of the $19 trillion in debt…I think I could do it fairly quickly…I would say over a period of eight years.” [Washington Post, Apr 2016]
US Official Data
Debt stands now at $24 trillion. Trump implemented a tax cut in 2018. This caused the budget deficit to increase from $666 billion in 2017 to $780 billion in 2018, making a reduction much less elimination of the gross federal debt more unlikely.
Debt reduction aims of Trump have not been realized, however, debt growth slowed noticeably. The budget deficit amounted to $666 billion in 2017 and increased to $780 billion last year. Even though many American companies chose to payout their federal tax savings to shareholders, 2018 was the worst year for the US stock market during the entire decade since the global financial crisis.
View original infographics, live dashboard and download data at knoema.com
