Which Countries Have the Most Ambitious 2030 Emissions-Reduction Targets?
Climate change is recognized as a significant issue for people’s lives and economic well-being worldwide. Since greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are associated with climate change, many countries have been making efforts to regulate and limit them. Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries pledged to advance climate change mitigation by committing to national GHG reduction targets. In 2015, the countries submitted their first national strategies, known as Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs, for reducing their share of greenhouse gases by 2030.
- Since 1990, the most significant reductions in GHG emissions have been achieved by the United Kingdom (40.9% decline), Russia (30.9%), and the EU-27 (22.1%). Emissions cuts in the UK and European Union (27) were driven by decarbonization of the energy sector, improving energy efficiency, and structural changes in the economy that shifted energy-intensive industries to the developing world and increased of service-based sectors in GDP. In Russia, GHG emissions declined due to the deep economic crisis of the 1990s that induced industries to close down or substantially reduce output. By the early 2000s, emissions had dropped more than 40% from 1990 levels.
- Comparing current emissions with 2005 levels, the standout leaders are the UK and Brazil, which have succeeded in decreasing emissions by 30%. The European Union (27) has reduced its emissions by 16% since 2005, while Russia’s emissions, in contrast, have grown by 23%.
- According to the most recently submitted NDCs, the most ambitious goals in emissions reduction by 2030 belong to the UK, the EU-27, and Australia, followed by Brazil and the United States. The Russian NDC reflects a goal to stabilization of emissions on the 70% of 1990 level, or an increase of 12% compared to the 2015 level. Indonesia, according to its latest NDC of 2016, expects a decrease in emissions at 1.6% below 2015 levels (or an increase of almost 64% over 2005). In the best-case scenario, including international support, Indonesia expects to reduce emissions up to 18% below 2015 levels (a 36% rise over 2005).
GHG Reductions Due to National Determined Contributions
National Determined Contributions or NDCs are national climate plans that represent countries’ pledges on climate action, including climate-related targets as well as policies and measures governments aim to implement in order to keep global warming well below 2°C, preferably to 1.5°C, over pre-industrial levels. NDCs were first submitted by countries in 2015 under the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Countries are expected to increase the level of climate ambition every five years, and 76 countries (including 27 EU countries) have submitted updated or new NDC in 2020.
Renewable Energy Sector Development
Renewable energy (RE) is expected to be one of the main instruments in climate change mitigation. Hydroelectricity had been developing for decades before climate change was recognized as a serious problem and the first climate- and emissions-related international documents were signed. However, the greater part of available hydropower capacity is already in use, which means that that the development of non-hydro renewable energy is directly related to the success of energy sector decarbonization measures. For this reason, non-hydro RE share growth is one of the key indicators of a country’s energy transition process.
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