Down the Stretch: NBA Races to Watch
By Scott Auriat
Four Days! That’s all that remains of an exciting NBA season. It is officially the stretch drive. While much has been decided, much is still up in the air. Let’s break down the key races to keep your eyes on.
Let’s start with the boring races and work our way to the most exciting. The race for the top spot in the West and East is crucial and always plays a vital role in later series as it is a significant edge to have home-court advantage.
We have a real yawn-fest in the West with the Suns just about lapping the competition. They are eight games ahead and have already clinched the league’s best record. For a moment, let’s appreciate what an accomplishment that is. They could lose their remaining games and STILL BE THE BEST TEAM IN THE LEAGUE.
On the flip side, the East couldn’t be tighter. It is pretty rare to have such a close race for the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th spot. While the Heat have a healthy 2.5 game lead for the 1st. The Celtics, Bucks, and 76ers are deadlocked with 49–30 records. The East as a whole is much closer than the West. To illustrate, the difference between 1st and 10th in the East is 11.5 games. In the West, the difference is 29 games. Thus sorting out final positions in the East will likely take us to the last day or two of the season.
The Play-In Tournament has created a new set of dynamics to make the stretch drive extra intense. Not only are more teams in the mix compared to usual, but it makes the 6th place spot super valuable. If you get that 6th spot, you don’t have to play in the Play-In Tournament. As discussed in the linked article, the tournament creates a reasonably high chance a team will get bounced. There is roughly a 25% chance that a team finishing seventh or eight, which usually guarantees you a spot, will end up on the outside looking in.
Furthermore, it puts a lot of wear and tear on the teams that endure the tournament. While the top six teams get to take days of rest, the seven to ten teams will slug it out over three days and play potentially two games, with the playoffs starting the following day. Let’s put this in perspective. A team could finish 7th, just a game behind the 6th spot, but then have to play two games in three nights, then open a series against a well-rested squad the next night. It is a massive downside, and one teams desperately want to avoid.
Regarding the Play-In the key race to watch in the final days is between the Nets, Hawks, and Hornets for the 8th, 9th, and 10th spots in the East. The Nets and Hawks are deadlocked with 41–38 records, and the Hornets sit just a game back of both in the 10th spot. Consider this race while referencing the above-noted probabilities. The team that locks down the 8th spot would have a 75% chance of making it, while the 9 and 10 teams would have only a 25% chance (see the linked article for explanation). Furthermore, the 8th place team could win and only play one game. The 9 and 10 spots would have to play two games to get in. This is a major downside, as mentioned. In a short tournament playing the night before could make all the difference.
In breaking and shocking news, with a Lakers loss last night, they are officially out of the Play-In and the playoff picture. Who would have thought that at the beginning of the season?!!! So much was riding on the Lakers’ star-studded lineup. The Lakers and most fans around the league thought that anything could happen if they could sneak in. But all for not. Lebron, Westbrook, Davis, Carmelo, Howard, and the rest of the Lakers will have to endure watching the playoffs from the comfort of their living rooms, that is if they can bear watching.
With that noted, it is a breath of fresh air for many. The spotlight will be shining on some relatively new players, while relatively new compared to the Lebron. Booker will seek to avenge last year’s finals loss, Giannis will seek a repeat, and Doncic wants to step into superstardom with an elite playoff performance. The list goes on and on. It’s a great time to be a fan. Buckle in for the stretch drive!
