2019 Bitcoin prediction: Bull or Bear market?
【Published by BiShiJie (Xiao Cong App) | Editor: Chen Jin Sheng】
When will the next bull market come? How long do we have to wait? three months? Or a year?
Extensive research carried out by market research startup Delphi Digital is pointing to the fact that Bitcoin (BTC) could be reaching its bear market bottom during 2019’s first quarter.
Timestamp Capital believes that from the prospective of cyclical law, Bitcoin may still have a few months of decline cycle, it may rise in the next exceed 3 years. Based on this historical change, Bitcoin prices are now close to the bottom area. However, judging by historical data is always a dangerous behavior.
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone has already voiced his predictions for 2019, claiming that the current crypto sell-off will continue.
Founder of Crypto Briefing, Han Kao, wrote to his clients in his latest email says，”If we’re not at the bottom, then we’re very close to it,”. After the small rebound at the end of the year we are currently seeing, it could be slightly tougher in the coming weeks,” but,” the worst time has passed.”
Some investors who interviewed by Xiao Cong App says they couldn’t care less whether it will be bull market in the coming year. Their thoughts are similar to the analytics agency and the blockchain community, which generally believe that the status on next year will still be in a period of oscillation, and bull market will not come so soon.
Bobby Chao, founding Partner of Draper Dragon said: “market will be in an oscillation period within 3–6 months, so eventually there may be big ups and down. After that is basically a period of adjustment, so there may be a “ laughter is heard and tears are shed in different households “ situation.
Edith Yeung, a co-partner of 500 Startups (venture investment company) straight up to the topic said that he will not chase the market by pointing out: “as early investors, we’re not going to chase the market whether its bull or bear, we will continue to focus on the development of technology. It (market status) really doesn’t matter to us. But then again, bull market might come back after a year.”
Chris McCann, a former venture capitalist at Silicon Valley blockchain, and a venture capital firm, Greylock, analyzed three potential possibilities for a bull market:
First, people find out the actual use in digital token (besides the money game) for landing applications that can drive demand for more new products.
Second, real large hedge funds, VCs, private equity funds, and family offices entering the field.
Third, if regulatory uncertainty is eliminated and build up clear rules about it, then the release of a utility token will trigger a new wave of ICOs.
One thing that these three possibilities have in common is to see which can create new market demand for digital tokens.
However, there are also individuals who are very optimistic about the market.
Rune Bentien, a resident entrepreneur at ConsenSys Ventures’ London office, believes that the bull market has arrived:
I believe that the bull market has come even though outsiders can’t see it. I am optimistic about this industry and ecosystem.
Joseph Lubin, co-founder of Ethereum and founder of ConsenSys, recently announced on Twitter that he believes the encryption industry has bottomed out in 2018. The sign at the bottom is the fear, uncertainty and suspicion of the “epic-level number”.
Lou Kerner, partner of venture capital and strategy firm of CryptoOracle think there are three possible outcomes for Bitcoin:
1. Bitcoin fails as a store of value — In this case, I think Bitcoin is toast
2. It surpasses gold as a store of value — In this case, with the total amount of gold bullion currently at about 2.5B ounces, and gold bullion market cap at $3.1 trillion, each Bitcoin will be worth north of $145,000
3. Bitcoin takes second place as a store of value — Silver is broadly considered to be #2 player in terms of stored value. There is currently about 4.0 billion ounces of silver bullion, for a total market cap of $58 billion, which would result in a price for Bitcoin today of $3,346. Bitcoin currently has a market cap of $62 billion.
Highlights on the coming year
In addition to the view of the bottom of the market, investor who chatted with the Xiao Cong also shared their views on some potential highlights of the market next year.
Tim Draper, Silicon Valley venture capitalist, believes that Bitcoin biggest opportunity in 2019 is the landing of its application, include the year of 2020 and 2021. Bitcoin and its applications will grow dramatically:
“Bitcoin will be used for business and some simpler payment methods (using mobile phones for bitcoin payments), more retailers and e-commerce will also accept Bitcoin’s payment services. Main beneficiaries are for those who make Bitcoin much more handy, convenient, safe and easy to use — the engineers.”
In 2020 and 2021, demand will amazing growth in Bitcoin and its applications. Until then, blockchain technology can be used to replace all accounting methods, including replacing the legal structure with software.
Ashesh Birla, senior vice president of product management at Ripple, is more optimistic about banks’ interest in encryption and believes that loans based on blockchain technology will become a major trend in the future:
“Some banks are very active, not only for the encryption field, but I think that as they continue to roll out new services, you will hear more good news next year.” He then said: “In the next five years, I think loans and other products based on blockchain technology will become a major trend.”
In the field of public chain, the “first public chain” dispute between ETH and EOS will also become a major attraction in the blockchain field. Whether it is the first large-scale application of EOS, or the success of Ethereum’s expansion, or it will determine the results of the two public chain “ranking battles.”
Ethereum developers and investors are unanimously awaiting the progress of the second phase of Ethereum Serenity next year. Joseph Lubin, co-founder of Ethereum and founder of ConsenSys, said in an interview with Xiao Cong said that he believes used of Ethereum in 2019 will be scalable:
As we approach the end of 2018, we see new technologies breakthroughs in every week. For example, a new state channel, a new side chain (Plasma) is being built. Some games and exchanges use the new extension technology we’ve mentioned here, a new system is linked to Ethereum via a sidechain with Plasma and it can handle 65,000 transactions per second. Because it is linked to Ethereum by Plasma, its security also protected by the trust layer which based on Ethereum. If there is a problem with extension layer 2, everyone can get their digital token back in layer 1. In 2019, we will see the emergence of many games and other applications that use these technologies.
Many EOS developers believe EOS have the ability to step beyond Ethereum, it could happen in the coming year.
According to the Lumeos development team (from a user’s point of view), EOS provides a better solution and a better user experience. EOS allows large-scale applications, and once a large-scale application occurs on EOS, it will help it become the largest blockchain ever. In contrast, there are many DAPP design issues and user usage issues in Ethereum which Ethereum need to face.
However, some EOS developers believe that Ethereum is solving the expansion problem. Whether EOS can surpass ETH, it depends on whether Ethereum or EOS which can be the first to solves the problem of expansion.
The problem of expansion is not only important for Ethereum, but also for the success or failure of other projects.
Han Kao, founder of Crypto Briefing, believes that the success of the blockchain will be based on a second-layer solution that can be expanded to meet current business needs, and this expansion is minimized for decentralization and security. It doesn’t matter where the specific expansion method comes from, whether it comes from existing projects such as Casper and Sharding in Ethereum, or its second-layer extension solution like Zilliqa or Quarkchain. What’s important is that the expansion plan needs to go online, be tested, and even thousands of nodes around the world participate in block production. Only then can we say that this expansion method does exist and worked.
This will be the most difficult part. Once the scalability issue is resolved, we will see blockchain technology adoption momentum in the third quarter/fourth quarter of 2019.
■ Source: BiShiJie
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