Finding Liquidity In a Bearish Market Episode 1: Is Winter Coming?

Gloom has been hanging over the blockchain world for quite a while, especially since the market saw a sudden drop in mid-November 2018.

During the seven days between November 14th and November 20th, BTC suffered from multiple double-digit daily swings, dragging the price down to way below $5,000 from almost $6,500.

Now it’s lower than $3,800, and no one knows whether it will stand, or further slide.

However, the overnight double-digit plunge happened repeatedly during the past 12 months — the most dramatic one took place in late December 2017, when BTC price dove by approximately 20 per cent within one single day.

Price tumble might be attributed to short-term causes — speculation for instance. Investors’ willingness of trading, however, may better indicate the market sentiment.

For at least five-straight quiet months, BTC has recorded a daily trading volume of less than US$5 billion, shrank from the historical-high of $23 billion roughly the same time last year.

But should the market be featured as “bearish” gauged solely by turnover?

From the perspective of an exchange, we have observed trading volume, total market-cap and user activity tumbling hand in hand.

But wait, are we seeing fewer and smaller-sized offline events, or are investors less approached by projects, or dwindling market size of the blockchain industry?

Let’s just put aside the cryptocurrency speculator’s mindset for one second.

According to German research entity Statista, the global blockchain technology industry scale increased to US$339.5 million in 2017 from 2016’s US$210.2 million, which is expected to more than double to US$548.2 million as of the end of 2018.

Given that one data collector may not see the whole picture, the real number should be bigger.

Now we know the blockchain industry is growing, the question is how to catch up with the momentum and seize opportunities. Here I figure out a few things on the to-do list for an exchange.

Diversification. In a bullish market, it is hard to give up the abundant transaction and listing fees when the trading volume skyrockets. Accordingly, exchanges’ first priority would be processing matchmaking deals smoothly and safely. However, a rather bearish market leaves more room for technology research, business development and future function exploitation.

Education. On one hand, retail investors, who were too easy to be incited in a maniac market and unsurprisingly got burnt, could use some education by exchanges. On the other hand, projects that have difficulties in funding or ICOs also need instructions in regard of market-oriented technological trend, operation and compliance.

Selection. For exchange itself, a slow global market speeds down the listing process, allowing more time and more restrict reviewing criteria to be adopted. While under the current situation that the world’s passion for blockchain is actually strengthening, exchanges’ capability of spotting higher-quality assets shall improve.

Expansion. Integrating resources from all aspects, exchange could become a solid pillar in constructing the broad ecosystem, in terms of offering better financial services as well as shouldering greater social responsibility.

The list goes on.

Yes the winter is here, but it will go sooner or later. Still choose to be a pessimistic fatalist doing nothing but bewailing in the “bearish” market? Take a second thought.