Meditation on Weekly Crypto News: See the Dots, Read the Future
Although us crypto start-up workers don’t really clock in or clock out — yep, 996 working-hours are so out, we’re on standby 24/7 — I am actually seriously running late for work!
As much as I want to yell at the obvious green-hand driver of Didi Chuxing (Uber-like ride hailing app) who is driving slow like a sloth, I manage to maintain my composure. Safety is most important, after all.
In order to make the commute less boring, I started to round up the top news of this week, trying to look past the surface and read between the lines, ideally seeing the bigger picture.
Hmmm, it sounds a bit like fortune-telling, or at least connecting dots. But never mind, let’s start with what seems to be the least relevant news.
Jerome H. Powell, the current US Federal Reserve chair, said earlier this week that the Fed “will act as appropriate to sustain the [economic] expansion” given President Trump’s trade disputes with multiple nations including China and Mexico.
Mr. Powell’s remarks were interpreted as a strong signal of a possible interest rate cut, sending the US stock market soaring straight away. Since Tuesday, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 Index all climbed by three percent.
How does this connect to the crypto world?
Lower interest rates indicate lower cost of funds. Wall Street guys would have no hesitation in borrowing more money and re-investing in higher-yield but riskier assets, among which cryptocurrency could be a decent option.
The second piece of news that drew my attention read that Facebook and the US Commodity and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) started a discussion over the former’s ongoing stable coin project (namely GlobalCoin).
Under its blockchain program Project Libra, the world’s largest social media firm aims to allow its users to make cross-border money transfers easily and economically via GlobalCoin.
With its 2.7 billion global users (WhatsApp, Facebook and Instagram together), the stable coin, which is reportedly backed by a portfolio of fiat currencies including US dollar, will be born popular.
I wonder if the outstanding stable coin projects would feel deterred.
Nevertheless, a $480 billion-worth public company, no matter how much cash it holds to burn, won’t be doing anything nonsensical. Plus, no matter how much the Zuckerberg couple are into charity, he has a business to run and thousands of shareholders to impress.
The third piece of news — or as some may prefer to call it, a show — read that a Chinese 90s-born crypto celebrity won a $4,567,888 bid for the Warren Buffett Lunch. My feelings are mixed to be honest.
Mr. Buffett has experiences, not necessarily pleasant ones, having charity lunches with Chinese businessmen. One ended up being investigated by the Chinese stock market watchdog and had assets frozen.
Controversies over the young Buffett Lunch bidder never stopped since his debut in Chinese crypto field in late 2013 by pooling investments from domestic VCs and high net wealth individuals targeting Ripple, thanks to his histrionic personality.
It is too early to tell whether the path in front of Mr. Sun will lead to a brighter future or a rather shady one, but the pros and cons of his move are crystal clear.
The downside is that the reputation of the crypto industry (and possibly the blockchain technology part of this world too) may teeter further, which may encourage the blind criticism of crypto haters and scare off those who want to test the waters, as they may interpret the fancy PR event as one man’s vanity, a group of people’s gimcrackery, and moreover, an industry’s incredibility.
The upside is that the eye-catching event will also draw great attention to our world from outside. It will surely lure in short-term speculators, but will also inspire interested individuals who may become true blockchain believers later on.
There is also the fourth piece of news this week, not really news as far as I am concerned, since the price of cryptocurrencies fluctuate very frequently. The BTC price dropped by $500 within 90 minutes on June 4, and my trader friend expects further corrections.
This doesn’t mean volatilities on the secondary market are not worth noticing. Not at all, as I shared before, learning technical analysis skills from professional and institutional traders are vital (otherwise, why would we add various order types to our trading engine).
But I would very much like to re-emphasize that we should see the industry with a long-term horizon. The dots are there, faith can map out more and eventually connect them all to make the bigger picture.
