Netflix is doomed ⚰
Netflix can’t chill anymore.
We all know Netflix has done incredibly well with it’s own content. In a short period of time Netflix went from a place people went to consume content from other companies, to having a great library of its own content.
From its “Netflix Originals” shows that have lasted years, to Dave Chappelle specials, Netflix’s own content has become a staple in entertainment. Billions of dollars spent in production and marketing costs, these shows have become household names.
Sadly, none of this may be enough to withstand the onslaught facing Netflix just around the corner.
While there is a AppleTV+ was just announced, Netflix’s biggest threat is Hollywood.
Do not underestimate the value of iconic characters. While some major brands have slipped over the years, the top of the top has not lost their allure.
Spongebob, Bart Simpson, Mickey Mouse, Spiderman and Mario. These are the names that will decide the content wars. Not Narcos or House of Cards.
This is why Apple elected to have Sesame Street’s Big Bird on stage during their AppleTV+ launch event.
We’ve learned from Netflix’s own “Originals” and brands like Clash of Clans or Candy Crush that you can build a household name in a relatively short period of time.
The problem is they don’t stand a chance against competition from the icons.
Just take a look at this app download chart.
Nintendo has been dominant longer than the existence of smartphones and the internet itself. Still, Nintendo’s most iconic characters hold more weight than almost any other.
While Pokémon GO’s growth is insane, Mario Run only took 68 days to reach 100 million users.
Nintendo locks up the number one and two spot for fastest to 100 million users. Other companies achieved this over many quarters or even years.
To the dismay of Netflix, with Disney’s acquisition of Fox many of these characters now belong to just one entity.
Disney owning the rights to The Simpsons is terrifying. Add in Star Wars, Family Guy, Spiderman (Marvel) and Disney’s own household names?
Netflix should be horrified.
The dark horse in the video streaming race isn’t a tech company, it’s Viacom.
Rugrats, Hey Arnold and of course Spongebob are more than enough to sway consumers dollars. Just ask anyone with children or Millennials.
Viacom does not need to pick a side in the streaming wars. However, they have the ability to sway things in one direction over night. Amazon and Neflix both know this first hand.
When Amazon dropped a cool $200 Million to get access to more Viacom (mainly Nickelodeon) shows than Netflix had, right after Netflix’s deal with Viacom finished, this was the first show of power by Viacom.
Viacom currently is playing both sides, much like Disney. Striking content deals with Netflix and Amazon. Viacom also maintains its own online video platforms. Viacom also purchased the PlutoTV streaming service in preparation of their own service.
The perception is that when Viacom signed their first Netflix deal, it was a huge misstep. This drove younger audiences further away from TV and onto the internet. The knee jerk reaction is to cut back on your content in other places and to launch your own platform.
Nobody wants a Viacom streaming service, we just want their content. We can all hope that with looming management changes at Viacom, this strategy will shift. Else, we can only hope Viacom launches their streaming platform (and fails) soon.
Disney is planning its own streaming service and Apple just announced their own. Netflix and Amazon face tougher competition than ever. What will decide the fate of these platforms is how much content from Viacom and Disney are on their platforms. Not original content.
This is an unfair war. Not only does Apple have more money to spend to sway Viacom and other companies to offer their content on AppleTV+, Disney is likely more of a friendly rival than a full on competitor. Let’s not forget which tech company founder also owned Pixar.
If Apple or Disney can steal just some of the Viacom library, Netflix is doomed. Prime Video is included for free with an Amazon Prime subscription. Amazon’s own originals such as The Grand Tour, have flourished.
It’s hard to compete with free. Even harder is competing with Apple, Spongebob and Mickey Mouse.
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