Cam Newton, Stats, and the MVP
Come along with me as I use basic statistical analysis to argue the case for or against Cam Newton as the National Football League’s 2015 MVP
Warning 1: I’ll be using some extremely basic stats for ease of reading for people who may be unfamiliar with the subject. More advanced stats would absolutely help paint a clearer picture, but since this post may be someone’s first exposure to football stats, I’d prefer to not scare them away with a ‘bunch of numbers.’
Warning 2: I have no idea what I’m doing.
As the NFL playoffs begin their march toward an eventual league champion, focus begins to sharpen on those few gifted players skilled (and lucky) enough to take home some additional hardware at season’s end. The NFL MVP award is one which can make a player’s eventual enshrinement in Canton (home of the NFL Hall of Fame) that much more likely. For the 2nd half of this season, that MVP has been assumed to be Cam Newton, quarterback of the Carolina Panthers. But! Is this a case where the eyes and statistics don’t agree? Let’s find out together.
An Introduction to Stats, Plus a History Lesson
First, I’d like to give you a statistical baseline for what an MVP season from a quarterback looks like. I’ve pulled the stats for the past 5 QB MVP seasons, going back to the 2009 season. Using the past 5 quarterback MVPs gives us outstanding statistical seasons from Tom Brady, Peyton Manning (twice), and Aaron Rodgers (twice). (I’ll talk about other MVP winners later on in the post.)
A quick intro to the stats I’ll be discussing for the next part of this article; I know most of you are already familiar with a myriad of sports stats, some basic, some advanced, but maybe you’re reading this post and have little to no exposure to football or statistical analysis. If so, I want to make this as easy as possible for you to follow along. Let’s get started.
- Attempts - The number of time the QB passes the ball.
- Completions - The number of times the ball is caught.
- Completion % - Attempts divided by completions.
- Yds - The total number of yards thrown for over the seasn.
- TDs - Total number of passing touchdowns.
- Ints. - Total number of interceptions thrown by the QB.
- Yards/Att. - The average number of yards gained per every passing play.
- Rushing Att. - The number of times the QB tries to run the ball.
- Rush Yds. - Total number of rushing yards gained.
- Rush TDs - Total number of rushing touchdowns scored by the QB.
(By the way, I’m pulling all of my basic stats from the wonderful Pro-Football Reference. I highly suggest you use them if you’re interested in finding out more statistical information for a particular season, team, or player.)
Averaging out the past 5 QB MVP seasons gives us these stats as a baseline for what the Associated Press felt deserved recognition:
For comparison’s sake, here are Cam Newton’s stats for the 2015 regular season:
You’ll notice some pretty severe differences between the two. Cam’s completion % and yards are far below the average of recent winners. These deficits are mitigated somewhat by Cam’s otherworldly rushing stats, especially when you consider that if you take Aaron Rodgers’ 2 MVP seasons stats out of the equation, the remaining 3 MVP winners averaged a paltry -4.5 rushing yards and 1/3 of a rushing TD a season. Another mitigating factor is that Cam was without his #1 receiving target, Kelvin Benjamin, for the entirety of the season. Even without Benjamin to pad his stats, Newton (and Carolina’s ferocious defense) led the Panthers to a 15–1 record. Let’s take a look at his competition for this season and see how he stacks up.
Let’s Talk About 2015
First, I want to look at what the average NFL QB was able to do this season. For this, I’m looking at every team’s 16 game schedule, regardless of starter, and seeing what each team was able to do at the QB position. Looking at the numbers across the league gives us this:
Again, the numbers for this season follow what we saw in the historical context; Cam falls below the average in completion percentage and yards, but is a far superior running QB than his contemporaries. His passing and rushing touchdowns are also far above the norm. So, again, the case for Cam as MVP using these basic stats seems to come down to how much you value the following criteria:
- Cam’s ability to run the football/score rushing touchdowns (consider; 1/4 of all starting QBs failed to record even one rushing touchdown)
- Cam’s ability to succeed as a passer without his #1 WR (a WR who set franchise records across the board his rookie season, by the way)
- Carolina’s 15–1 record
If you care about those issues at all, then yeah, Cam Newton absolutely deserves the MVP. Let’s dive a little deeper into the numbers though and take a quick look at the 2 other QBs from this season who are challenging Cam’s claim for the MVP; Carson Palmer and Tom Brady:
No big surprises here, right? Yet again, Cam lags behind in both yards and completion percentage, holds his own in terms of touchdowns and interceptions, and absolutely dominates in terms of rushing stats. It should also be noted that Tom Brady throws the ball to Rob Gronkowski, the clear-cut best tight end in the league. Palmer, for his part, plays with an incredibly balanced offense that had a rookie WR and a rookie RB both who have had fantastic seasons. Again, the question comes down to how much you view team records and rushing stats as important for a QB. I think though, that you would have to admit that based off these (admittedly) basic stats, Cam, at least if not the outright winner, absolutely deserves to be in the discussion for MVP.
One last simple metric that can help gauge how well a quarterback plays is defined by the strength of his opponents. For example, Cam played twice against each team in his home division of the NFC South, where the 2nd place team (Atlanta Falcons) finished out of the playoffs with an 8–8 record. On the other side of that coin, Carson Palmer played twice against each team in the NFC West, where the 2nd place Seattle Seahawks finished at 10–5 with the 2nd playoff wildcard spot. Let’s dig a little deeper into those numbers to see what else we can learn.
I wanted to give you a table showcasing the average record of each team played by the three MVP candidates, as well as the average ranking of the rush/pass defenses they faced in order to visualize any severe differences, but something happened. My research led me to something interesting; each QB faced almost the exact same thing in terms of average difficulty. Palmer, Brady, and Newton all faced what were on average 7–9 teams, with rush defenses averaging between 17th and 19th, and pass defenses averaging between 17th and 18th. This may not seem like much at first glance, but when you look at each candidate as a whole, we can see that Brady and Palmer were able to throw for basically the same amount of yards, while Cam was able to absolutely torch those teams’ rushing defenses. Again, which do you value more? Passing stats or rushing stats? Or, in the case of Cam, does his rushing dominance make up for the relative lack of success passing? (Just so I’m clear, 3,900 yards and 35 TDs is not bad by any stretch of the imagination.)
Looking at all the information, Palmer and Brady faced similar competition and posted almost identical passing/rushing statistics. Cam Newton, while throwing for fewer yards, dominated the rushing game.
You may be thinking, ‘Ok, Mike, sure. Enough with the quarterbacks already! How does Cam compare to running backs or wide receivers? QBs aren’t the only players in the league!’ You’re absolutely right. Let’s take a look at some of those other skill positions, and see what chances they have in the MVP race.
Whether awarded by the AP or the Pro Football Writers of America, the NFL MVP has traditionally skewed very heavily in favor of QBs. Earlier in this post, I talked about using the past 5 QB winners of the award in order to gain a littler historical context for Cam’s case. To find the past 5 QBs I only had to go back as far as 2009. You might think that Adrian Peterson, the top running back this season, deserves a shot at the MVP. In order to get the previous five running backs that won MVP, I’d have to go back seventeen years.
For wide receivers it’s even worse; the last time the Pro Football Writers of America awarded the MVP to a WR was Jerry Rice in 1987. For the AP, you would have to go back all the way to 1964 and the AFL’s Gino Cappelletti. (The AP has never given the MVP award to an NFL WR.) It should be clear that the MVP is extremely biased towards the QB position.
Sure, every now and then, a running back or wide receiver (in theory) could have the kind of transcendent season that could turn voters’ eyes towards them…but not this year.
That being said, let’s take a look at the most likely players from the running back and wide receiver positions who could be candidates for the MVP.
What About the Other Guys?
Adrian Peterson of the Minnesota Vikings is the league’s leading rusher in a few basic statistical categories; rushing attempts (327), rushing yards (1,485), rushing yards per game (92.8), and he is tied for the league lead in rushing touchdowns (11), on the way to leading the Vikings to an NFC North title and a playoff appearance. He also was the last RB to win the MVP, taking home the award in 2012, becoming the first RB to take home the AP MVP since 2006.
When you take a closer look at those stats though, Peterson’s case for the MVP comes with some strong reservations; he won the league rushing title by 83 yards over Doug Martin, who, it should be pointed out, was atrocious last season. Also, three other players rushed for 11 touchdowns this season, and all three of those players started less than 16 games for their teams. So, while Peterson had a fantastic season, he didn’t do enough to separate himself from many other running backs. Especially when you consider that he only scored one more rushing touchdown than Cam Newton.
For wide receivers, there’s even less of a case to make that any of them should be in consideration for MVP. No single wide receiver leads the league in more than 2 categories that Pro-Football-Reference tracks. I will however draw special attention to DeAndre Hopkins, the #1 WR for the Houston Texans. Hopkins is in the top-10 for almost all of the receiving statistical categories, despite playing with a quartet of QBs (Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, T.J. Yates, Brandon Weeden) who were statistically some of the worst QBs in the NFL this season. To finish with over 1,500 yards and 11 touchdowns speaks volumes about Hopkins’ ability as a receiver. Is this enough to make him MVP? Almost definitely not, and thankfully, that isn’t the point of this post, and after more than 2,000 words, I think it’s about time for us to make a decision on Cam.
Conclusion:
We’ve uncovered some fascinating things during this journey to discover if basic stats can support the overwhelming assumption that Cam Newton will be the NFL’s 2015 MVP. We learned that;
- In historical context, Cam’s passing numbers don’t hold up (but then, Carson Palmer’s and Tom Brady’s fall slightly short as well), but that his rushing stats more than exceed the nominal ‘MVP quarterback season’.
- In context of this season, the same pattern plays out; Cam falls behind his contemporaries in terms of passing stats, but his rushing stats are far superior.
- Palmer and Brady are basically the same player, at least in terms of this year’s passing stats.
- Each QB played essentially the same season, against teams averaging the same win-loss record, as well as very similar rushing and passing defenses.
- We also learned that no running back or wide receiver separated themselves enough from their contemporaries to really challenge for the award this year.
After all that, where am I on the subject?
First of all, I don’t particularly care about win-loss record when it comes to awarding individual greatness. The MVP is an individual award, and there are so many more factors that determine a team’s overall record. That leaves me with Cam’s rushing ability and his relative passing excellence while dealing with inferior teammates than either Palmer or Brady could rely on. There were many QBs in the league this season who threw for over 4,000 yards, but Cam was the only one to throw for a comparable number of touchdowns, and have that much success on the ground. I think when you look at Cam’s body of work as a whole, especially when his two challengers are so statistically similar (with no real distinctions between them) that Cam’s added ability to use his legs to such great success tilts the scales towards him. Those stats are enough for me to confidently award Cam Newton the NFL’s MVP award for the 2015 season. (And while we’re at it, DeAndre Hopkins would get my Offensive Player of the Year vote).
I hope you’ve enjoyed reading this as much as I enjoyed writing it. If you’re interested in talking further about sports, stats, or anything really, feel free to leave a response below, or you can find me on Twitter at @Wuest.
