Analysis
Stormy Gambian transition could play out again this year elsewhere
Three other African presidents may try to disrupt democratic transition
BAMAKO, Mali
The Gambian presidency might be the only exchange of power that was more awkward than the Obama-Trump handover. Technically, Gambia, the tiny, riverine nation surrounded on three sides by Senegal, had two presidents for a day: President Yahya Jammeh, who has ruled since he led a coup against the previous government 22 years ago, and President Adama Barrow, who won the presidential election in December and held a separate inauguration ceremony at the Gambian Embassy in Dakar, Senegal, on Jan. 20.
That same day, as the rest of the world watched to see Trump’s “unpresidented” inauguration, Senegal and other members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) sent troops into Gambia to remove Jammeh, who after weeks of refusing to contemplate leaving power, began negotiating for amnesty. Faced with troops at the gates of Banjul and the defection of his chief of defense forces, Jammeh, sounding a little like Capt Renault, decided “in good conscience to relinquish the mantle of leadership.” However, he has yet to leave for exile.
Jammeh, who took power in 1994 when he was a 29-year-old lieutenant in the army, has been a violent and paranoid leader throughout his reign, often shutting down the Gambian border for days at a time due to his fears of being overthrown. He executed political prisoners, is suspected of ordering the killing of the editor of a national newspaper, and used state surveillance and death threats to cow local journalists. (Barrow escaped being rounded up with Jammeh’s other political opponents because until his presidential campaign he worked as a real estate agent and security guard.) He also had a penchant for the bizarre. He claimed he could cure AIDS and infertility with traditional herbal remedies, denounced homosexuality as “evil” and said he would rule Gambia for a billion years.
Jammeh had initially conceded defeat after the presidential election showed he lost with 212,099 votes to Barrow’s 261,515. However, less than a week later he retracted the concession, citing “serious abnormalities” in the vote. Jammeh filed a case with the Gambian Supreme Court and sought a new vote. Unfortunately for Jammeh, the court could not assemble a full panel to hear the case after he had purged most of the judges and never replaced them.
Thus the president-elect and the president coexisted in an uneasy détente. The awkwardness was amplified when Barrow made a surprise visit to the French-African Summit held in Bamako, Mali, on Jan. 14. While Barrow was allowed to meet with French President Francois Hollande and several West African leaders, Jammeh was shunned and asked repeatedly to hand over power. ECOWAS also informed Jammeh of their intention to intervene militarily if he did not step down. Jammeh claimed this was an “act of war,” but both the African Union and the United Nations backed the ECOWAS intervention.
After the summit, Barrow did not return to Gambia because the rising tensions made him fear for his safety. So he took refuge in Dakar. Security concerns were so grave that Barrow could not even return to his home, less than 200 miles from Dakar, to attend his son’s funeral. Gambia’s population of roughly two million was also spooked. Before the election, many families were buying emergency provisions so they could remain in their homes if rioting broke out. After Barrow won, 46,000 Gambians fled the country fearing the violence of a civil war or the actions Jammeh might take to hold power.
In his last week, Jammeh declared a country-wide state of emergency and rammed through parliament a bill that extended his rule for three months, hypothetically long enough for him to stock the Supreme Court with judges and for it to make a ruling. But it was too late.
While the Gambia’s situation was extraordinary, it is hardly unique. The year ahead will be crucial in the consolidation of democracy on the African continent. Jammeh was one of the first long-serving presidents to face an election, which may partially explain the hard line that ECOWAS, the African Union, and the U.N. took. By showing that they are willing to enforce Gambia’s election results, it will show other leaders that ballot-box chicanery and contravention will not be tolerated.
This was an important precedent to set because several presidents are also looking to extend their tenures beyond constitutional term limits, with a few that could result in violence. Here are the elections to keep an eye on in the coming year:
1. August 2017 — Rwandan Presidential Election
President Paul Kagame has been credited with stitching up the wounds of Rwanda. He commanded the rebel force that ended the Rwandan Genocide in 1994 and assumed the office of president in 2000. Since then, peace and prosperity have been restored. In a particularly volatile corner of the world, Rwanda has been safe and stable for the past 20 years. It has been home to one of the fastest-growing economies in the world, increasing by an average of 8 percent per year since 2001. President Kagame has played a large part in much of this progress which has made him incredibly popular.
Unfortunately, this popularity has led to a withering of any political opposition. In 2015, a constitutional referendum was held to drastically extend presidential term limits. It passed with an incredible 98 percent. (While the Human Rights Watch suggests that Rwandans self-censor due to the government’s harsh dealings with dissidents, there was nothing to suggest foul play in the vote. As stated previously, Kagame is viewed as the savior of Rwanda.) Kagame will now run for a previously unconstitutional third term this August. Assuming he wins, he will not reach his new term limit until 2034.
2. August 2017 — Angolan General Election
Angola is set to hold only its fourth Presidential election since it won independence from Portugal in 1975. Just last month President José Eduardo dos Santos, who has ruled the country since he assumed office in 1979, announced he will step down before the 2017 election. His party, the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) has chosen his defense minister, Joao Lourenco, to stand for election. The MPLA dominates Angolan politics and because of the Angolan electoral system Lourenco is a lock to fill his mentor’s shoes. The question will be whether Lourenco can match dos Santos’s popularity for ending the Angolan Civil War and his cult of personality.
3. TBD 2017 — Democratic Republic of the Congo General Election
This election was supposed to be held in December, when President Joseph Kabila’s second term was supposed to end. Unable to amend the constitution to extend his term limit, Kabila has instead avoided holding a vote altogether, claiming that if elections were held in 2016 it would have disenfranchised millions of unregistered voters. To remedy this, Kabila has said he will remain in power while the election is delayed so that 10 million voters can be registered and so that polling stations can be built in some of the more remote reaches of the country. Resistance to Kabila’s refusal to step down was fierce and violent. After 26 protesters were killed days before Christmas, an agreement was signed on New Year’s Eve that suggested a transitional government will be appointed in March ahead of the presidential elections that must be held by the end of 2017, elections which Kablia cannot contest.
If the agreement holds it would be the first peaceful transfer of power the DRC has known in its 56 year history as an independent country. Kabila, a former guerrilla commander, assumed the office of president after his father, Laurent Kabila, was assassinated in 2001. He was initially welcomed by Congolese and the West as a progressive political figure, but he has been dogged by charges of corruption and there were allegations of major voter fraud and intimidation during his 2011 re-election campaign.
These are the three most contentious elections with the most potential for abuse. While forcing Jammeh to abide by the Gambian electoral results set a precedent, the intervention really hinged on Senegal, which had grown tired of its difficult, erratic neighbor. Senegal enjoyed ethnic ties with the Gambian population and a military that far outstrips that of Gambia. There are no neighbors that can intervene with similar efficacy or authority in Rwanda, Angola or the DRC.
There will also be elections in Kenya, which has a long history of electoral violence, and Liberia, whose Nobel Peace Prize-winning President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, the first elected female head of state in Africa, is stepping down after her second term in accordance with the constitutional limit. Since the early 1990s, the general trend in Sub-Saharan Africa has been toward healthier, more democratic societies. This year will test whether that trend continues.
UPDATE 1/23/17:
Jammeh refuses to stop stealing headlines — and state funds. According to an adviser to President Barrow, the former dictator withdrew over $11 million in the last two weeks of his reign from Gambia’s treasury, enough to put Gambia into financial distress. Barrow has vowed to begin an investigation into the alleged human rights abuses of the Jammeh regime. This seems to clash with the lenient terms agreed to for the peaceful transition of power, which prohibit the Gambian government from seizing Jammeh’s assets, prosecuting him or his family, or barring him from returning to the country.
Jammeh himself left Gambia for Equatorial Guinea late Saturday as part of his “temporary” exile. This choice may say something about what Jammeh expects Barrow’s investigative commission to find. Equatorial Guinea is not a signatory member of the International Criminal Court, meaning Jammeh is safe from extradition even if charges of crimes against humanity were levied against him.
