WILL INDIA BE THE NEXT SUPERPOWER?
AMERICAN VIEWPOINT
[This article is part of ScaleUP USA’s Federal Business Accelerator program which helps businesses of all sizes establish and grow their US federal government practice. Learn more by joining the free workshop.]
First, let us discuss the cohort of all countries that have the potential to be a superpower. We currently have one superpower and four other candidates for the superpower status. In this list of four, we have a surprise new candidate that might emerge as the superpower by the end of the year 2100. Any idea who is this new country?
Here, are the countries in order of importance for the superpower status!
USA (Current superpower)
China (Almost superpower)
Russia (Past superpower)
India (Aspiring superpower)
Canada (Surprise country — likely superpower by 2100)
Let us now compare the vital statistics of these top countries so we know where they stand and then we will get into the discussions as to what India needs to do to become a superpower.
To see whether India will be the next superpower and to compare it with existing or past superpowers, we have considered nine very specific criteria. We are going to go through them in quick detail. This discussion will allow you to make a judgment on Indian superpower status. If you think we should have considered additional points while discussing the superpower status, make sure to have your voice heard in the comment section below.
1. SIZE OF THE COUNTRY
First, let us look at the size of the countries that are in superpower contention. This is the percentage of the world landmass each of these countries occupies!
Russia: 11%
China: 6.3%
USA: 6.1%
Canada: 6.1%
India: 2.0 %
Russia is in a position of significant advantage just by its size, and hence the ability to garner natural resources from it.
2. POPULATION OF THE COUNTRY
If you want to be a superpower, you need human resources to build up the country and manage the defense of it. China seems to have an advantage here, but it does not. Due to the one-child policy Chinese population is aging fast. India on the other hand has a young and vibrant population. The U.S. is doing well mostly due to immigration from other countries. Russia is doing the worst with negative population growth. As of 2021, this is how the countries ranked in percentages of the world’s population:
China: 18.21%
India: 17.68%
USA: 4.21%
Russia: 1.83%
Canada: 0.48%
Canada is planning to add additional immigrants to build its population to 100 million people by the year 2100. If it can do this it will be a strong candidate for superpower status by the year 2100.
3. POPULATION GROWTH RATES
In terms of population growth rates for 2021, here is how the countries ranked:
India: +0.95%
Canada: +0.84%
USA: +0.57%
China: +0.29%
Russia: (0.07%)
It looks like China and Russia need to increase their population growth rates. India probably needs to decrease its population growth rate and we think Canada and US are very much in line with the growth rate they need for superpower status.
How do you think India should reduce its population growth rate? The policies adopted by the Congress party in the 1970s were not acceptable to the country. What are the other alternatives? Comment below!
4. LITERACY RATE BY COUNTRY
Literacy rates of a country matter. The higher the literacy rate the more productive the workforce, the better the quality of goods or services they create, and ultimately a more powerful economy they have. So let us now look at the literacy rates for our countries for 2022:
Russia: 99%
USA: 99%
Canada: 99%
China: 96%
India: 74%
India has done a lot of catching up in the last few years, but it still has ways to go. Plus, the quality of education is not up to par in India especially in tier 2 and tier 3 cities as well as the villages. If you have insights on improving education in India, contact us through our website. ScaleUP USA is also looking at building partnerships between US institutions and Indian institutions.
5. EASE OF DOING BUSINESS
One of the best ways to rank how a country does in its bureaucratic processes is to look at the World Bank’s “Doing Business Report.” In the last report of 2020, here is how the countries ranked:
US: 6th
Canada: 23rd
Russia: 28th
China: 31st
India: 63rd
This is a vast improvement for India from where it ranked in the past years but much more improvement is required. We will talk about this issue in future articles. Make sure to stay subscribed.
6. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
If you want to be a superpower you need to have a strong economy and a massive Gross Domestic Product. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time. Let us look at our top contenders here for 2021:
USA: $19.48 trillion
China: $12.23 trillion
India: $2.65 trillion
Canada: $1.67 trillion
Russia: $1.57 trillion
Looks like India, Canada, and Russia have a lot of catching up to do here.
7. GDP PER CAPITA
Of course, just having a strong GDP is not an indication of how wealthy the country is. We need to look at the GDP per capita. GDP per capita is gross domestic product divided by midyear population. This is the productivity of the workforce within the country. Here are the GDPs per capita for 2021:
USA: $69,375
Canada: $43,241
China: $10,500
Russia: $10,126
India: $1,900
So yes, China is catching up to the US in terms of GDP, but when you look at GDP per capita China is far behind. India has a lot of catching up to do too.
8. COUNTRY DEFENSE BUDGET
You cannot be a superpower without having a strong military. One of the best ways to look at how strong the military is — is based on the defense budget. Yet again, the US leads the way here with almost $800 billion worth of defense budget. It is also assumed that the U.S. has a couple of hundred billion of “black hole” defense budget that is not part of this $800 billion. Its defense forces are the most battle-tested and with 20 aircraft carriers can project power in any part of the world.
In recent years India has added a substantial amount to its defense budget. But it still dwarfs compared to US and China. And yes, we have some ideas on how India can leapfrog ahead in the defense arena. Watch out for that article later. Below are the figures for 2022:
USA: $778 Billion
China: $251 Billon
India: $72 Billion
Russia: $61 Billion
Canada: $22 Billion
9. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Finally, in our general comparison, we want to consider the impact of climate change. This is a forward-looking indicator. This criterion is likely to affect the future status of superpowers. This again is a separate article but here Russia comes out most positive. As global warming happens, and the temperatures rise, Canada and Russia have a significant advantage over all their competitors. Here are how the countries perform due to climate change:
Canada: Very positive impact
Russia: Very positive impact
USA: Negative impact
China: Negative impact
India: Very negative impact
This impact will be prominently felt around the year 2100. Climate change may slow down the progress of India towards a superpower.
10. WILL INDIA BE THE NEXT SUPERPOWER?
Now let us discuss the question we asked in the beginning. As you can see from our key indicators, India has some catching up to do but it has the potential. India today is what China was in the late 90s. It could become a superpower, but it has not fully flexed its muscles. Whether India becomes a superpower in the next decades is entirely going to depend on its federal and state governments and its citizens.
In a future article, we will tackle what specific things India needs to do to become a superpower country. If you have specific suggestions of what steps India needs to take to become a superpower status country, comment in the section below. We will consider your viewpoint as we do our research.
If you like this article make sure to subscribe to the channel, share it, and comment below in the comments section. Also, check out the ScaleUP USA website at www.scaleupusa.xyz.
