Solar Industry’s Dirty Secret: 4 Billion Tons of Toxic Solar Panel Waste by 2050

Just a quick reflection…

The solar panel’s lifespan is determined by a 20% power decrease.

Theoretically, after 10 years, the panel efficiency drops by 10%, and after 25 years, it drops by 20%. In practice, the oldest installations, after about 25 years, have a reduction in performance of 6–8%.

In other words, the lifespan is significantly longer, with a qualified estimate of approximately 40 years. The panels will, of course, continue to function, but with this decrease in performance.

However, it is not necessary to discard the panels; they can still be used by those who prefer price over performance. It is expected that the panels will serve for 60–70 years.

In the year 2050, there will be approximately 4 billion panels that will be technically written off, which will amount to approximately 80 million tons.

A recycling line is considered profitable when it handles approximately 20 thousand tons of material per year. The problem is that this is theory, and the panels are not designed to be easily recycled and the necessary elements extracted from them.

Consequently, it will likely be resolved by crushing them. However, the assumption is that development is progressing so rapidly that by that time, we will have figured out how to recycle the panels, because we simply must.

The rare metals used are limited, and today we recycle only 1%, so we are gradually approaching a time when full recycling will become an absolute necessity. How quickly we'll see new ventures appear in the solar panel recycling business?