Let’s Pick some Oscar Winners

Full disclosure: I haven’t seen any of these movies yet

This week, The Academy announced the nominations for the 89th Academy Awards.

This year’s crop of movies is far more diverse than previous years, which is the good news. The Academy recognizing to a wider spectrum of films released is a step in the right direction.

The bad news is that many of the movies nominated are unfamiliar to audiences. Looks like we’re going to have to work for our opinion, or just go in blind and bet based on dope red carpet outfits. Also a winning strategy.

As of press time, I am in the latter group. I have almost no knowledge of the nominated films, and that is not stopping me from making my picks. I’m going on buzz, logic, and gut feeling; a lethal combo when it comes to winning office pools.

Best Picture

• “Arrival”
• “Fences”
• “Hacksaw Ridge”
• “Hell or High Water”
• “Hidden Figures”
• “La La Land”
• “Lion”
• “Manchester by the Sea”
• “Moonlight”

The smart money rides on La La Land because Hollywood loves movies related to Hollywood. In recent years, I guess in an attempt to seem less self-congratulatory, Best Picture has gone to ‘surprise’ picks like Argo and Spotlight, but this might be just too tasty a dessert to pass up. Just like in the movies, Academy voters love a third act surprise, but not as much as they love themselves.

Directing

• Denis Villeneuve, “Arrival”
• Mel Gibson, “Hacksaw Ridge”
• Damien Chazelle, “La La Land”
• Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight”
• Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea”

While the Academy might stay away from awarding Best Picture to a movie about itself, there is no chance of that happening for individual categories. Best Director will go to the director who directed a movie taking place in a world where movies get made.

Actor in a Leading Role

• Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea”
• Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge”
• Ryan Gosling, “La La Land”
• Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic”
• Denzel Washington, “Fences”

Casey Affleck is the only actor who has received real buzz for this award thus far. Of course, Affleck fatigue could set in, but until I can’t escape “Viggo Mortensen deserves this award” think pieces, I’m going with the younger Affleck. Plus he won the Golden Globe in this category which is always a good barometer.

Actor in a Supporting Role

• Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight”
• Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water”
• Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea”
• Dev Patel, “Lion”
• Michael Shannon, “Nocturnal Animals”

The best part of House of Cards. The best part of Luke Cage. The most deserving of these nominees. Moonlight is a very personal movie, and Mahershala Ali’s portrayal of Juan helps to bring that story to life. This would be a real shocker if he didn’t win.

Actress in a Leading Role

• Emma Stone, “La La Land”
• Natalie Portman, “Jackie”
• Ruth Negga, “Loving”
• Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins”
• Isabelle Huppert, “Elle”

Historical trends tell me Natalie Portman will win. Social politics say that Meryl Streep will win. All the blogs and podcasts I consume are riding for Isabelle Huppert. Ruth Negga deserves to win because that was the most challenging role to play, but Hollywood can’t resist crowning a new America’s Sweetheart every single year when it comes to Actress in a Leading Role. Emma Stone has this locked up.

Actress in a Supporting Role

• Viola Davis, “Fences”
• Naomie Harris, “Moonlight”
• Nicole Kidman, “Lion”
• Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures”
• Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea”

Viola Davis deserved a nomination for Best Actress in a Leading Role because she’s on screen in Fences as much as Denzel Washington. Why she is in the Supporting category, I have no idea.

Adapted Screenplay

• “Lion,” by Luke Davis
• “Arrival,” by Eric Heisserer
• “Moonlight,” by Barry Jenkins
• “Hidden Figures,” by Theodore Melfi and Allison Schroeder
• “Fences,” by August Wilson

This is anyone’s game. I’m going to go with Hidden Figures because none of the individual performances will get recognized.

Original Screenplay

• “Manchester by the Sea,” by Kenneth Lonergan
• “Hell or High Water,” by Taylor Sheridan
• “La La Land,” by Damien Chazelle
• “20th Century Women,” Mike Mills
• “The Lobster,” by Efthymis Filippou and Yorgos Lanthimos

I have to think a movie about a man trying to find love at a hotel before he gets turned into an actual lobster is the most original idea for a movie in 2016. You’re not going to convince me otherwise.

Documentary Feature

• “Fire at Sea”
• “I am Not Your Negro”
• “Life, Animated”
• “OJ: Made in America”
• “13th”

The Juice is loose. How a TV documentary get nominated for an Academy Award, I don’t know.

Animated Feature Film

• “Kubo and the Two Strings”
• “Moana”
• “My Life as a Zucchini”
• “The Red Turtle”
• “Zootopia”

Never bet against Disney. Never bet against 2016 Lin-Manuel Miranda. Never bet against The Rock, ever.

Moana was the first Disney movie to feature a Disney princess without a male love interest in mind. That kind of direction and storytelling should be rewarded. Of course Zootopia made like a billion dollars so that could be rewarded, as could the weirdness of Kubo and the Two Strings. Best movie title goes to My Life as a Zucchini.